Reese Kaplan -- A Polar Bear is Now the Elephant in the Room

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room — Pete Alonso. 

Be honest...in the history of the New York Mets there may have been short term more lethal bats like Mike Piazza and short term all or nothing bats like Dave Kingman.  

No one is quite sure where Alonso’s floor and ceiling are, but no one disputes his out and out power.  The man is a home run beast and has ingratiated himself to the fanbase by playing regularly, staying healthy and not creating any controversial headlines that send public relations folks into a frenzy.

Right now everyone is completely aware that the Mets need to make a decision about the future of their ballclub, the onerous taxation they’re currently facing due to their payroll, Pete Alonso’s pending free agency and what to do about it.  

Some are in favor of extending the man to make him a Met for life.  They tried that last year and he turned them down.  Some are in favor of trading him away to get something way better than a modest draft pick if he leaves in free agency after turning down a Qualifying Offer.  

Others feel that the club has finally showed how good it can be and they firmly believe that Alonso’s middle of the order run production is critical to making it to October baseball.  

They advocate continuing the negotiations with Alonso between now and the end of October.  The fallback position is to bid for him along with 29 other teams if he really wants to test free agency.

None of these options is ideal.  Giving Alonso a stunning 6-8 year contract at about $28 million per year would put him around the compensation you would expect from the best of the best in the game who play first base.  

In a worst case scenario, you’d be swallowing $224 million for someone who likely will be productive for the next 3-5 years but also just as likely less so for the tail end of the long contract.  More importantly, the $28 million annual salary makes the payroll taxation penalty more likely instead of eliminating it.

Trading Alonso is somewhat similar to the Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer deals last summer, though they are both on sure tracks to Cooperstown and Alonso would be nominated but isn’t a shoe-in.  Also, starting pitchers are valued more earnestly for pennant chasing teams than are bats from guys who don’t contribute much on defense nor baserunning speed.  

Throw in the pending free agency and the return for Alonso should be pretty good but not stellar.  This approach would eliminate that increased payroll in subsequent years and provide the club with likely minor league or very inexpensive young veteran players. 

Now comes the most bizarre of the three approaches.  No one can dispute the value of having Alonso’s bat in the lineup day after day for the remainder of the year.  However, doing so means you are likely losing him for a QO draft pick assuming he will not cut himself off from open bidding during free agency.  You would get the reduction in payroll if he is no longer a Met come October, but your return for this approach is minimal. 

Sandy Alderson was recently quoted that trading away Alonso might be the smartest of these three choices.  He points out how other first baseman who were stellar in their primes rapidly decline after age 34-35.  

A long contract for Alonso would pay the same in those less productive years which is not a good business plan to tie up that much capital for a 25-35 HR guy when the contract expects more like 45 per year. 

David Stearns was brought in at a big salary to make these kinds of difficult decisions.  Trading Alonso away might regenerate the Midnight Massacre hostility felt by the Paysons when Tom Seaver and Dave Kingman were sent packing.  

On the other hand, if you get star quality players from another team at minimum wage for the next several years, then it could prove a short term battle you lose but a long term war you win.  There are no guarantees either way.