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6/27/24

Tom Brennan: Mets Demolish Yanks, And Is "Small Ball" the Right Call?



LA ACUNA (photo Richard Nelson) 


I’m going to flip the script…start with last night, then my regular article:


LAST NIGHT

Mets up 4-0, bottom 5, when rains came. Alvarez 3 for 3, 3 RBIs. Deadly.

Post-rain, the Mets outscored the flailing Yanks8-2, making the final score 12-2.  The “2” was a Judge HR, # 30, giving him 7 RBIs in two games. My brother’s advice? Walk him every time.

Vientos fanned his first two times up, then had 2 walks and a single in his next 4 times up. Tyrone Taylor 3 run shot. Manaea 5 scoreless for the win. 

McNeil 0-4, sac fly…and Acuna is scorching in Syracuse the last two weeks. Anyway…

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED…BACK TO .500. 

5 GAMES BACK OF BRAVES.

MINORS:

Baty, Cortes, Thomas, and Acuna are on fire for unstoppable Syracuse, the four guys combining for 10 hits. Vasil pitched 6 solid innings.

And Tong Terrific? 6 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 11 Ks for Bklyn. Looks like a future star.

Sproat? Rained out.


REGULAR ARTICLE:

The draft will be upon us in short order. 

So, a short question….

"Is Small Ball the Right Call?"

In other words, is drafting or signing small hitters a good idea?

Imagine if you will a Mets MLB hitters' roster like this in a few years:

    OUTFIELD

5'9" Drew Gilbert

5'7" Luisangel Acuna

5'10" Rhylan Thomas

5'10" Nick Morabito

5'6" Matt Rudick

    INFIELD

5'6"  Jett Williams

5'11" Francisco Lindor

5'11" Luke Ritter

5'11" Francisco Alvarez

5'11" Kevin Parada

5'11" Ronald Hernandez

5'11" Marco Vargas

5'6"  Wyatt Young

5’10” Jesus Baez ( think I’ve seen him listed somewhere at 5’9”.)

Just to be clear, 5'11" isn't undersized in this day and age, but it seems like the low end of normal height in today's game, and a smart cut off height when drafting.

Short players in recent decades who are successful have been few, and far fewer than the good old days when a 5'6" guy named Hack Wilson drove in 116 runs one season - in just his home games.

Short players that were good hitters have included 5'6" marvel Jose Altuve, Walt "No Neck" Williams, who also clocked in at 5'6", Freddie Patek at 5'5", and 5'9" Mets glove wizard Rey Ordonez, who fielded slick but couldn't hit a lick.  

Bunting Brett Butler was just 5'10", and he scored nearly 1,400 runs.  And the Toy Cannon, Jim Wynn, was a rocket launcher who was generously listed at 5'10".  Of course, there was also the great 5'7" Joe Morgan.  

But I think it is safe to say that there are relatively few hitters under 5'10" that make a real impact.   

Who else over the last 50 years was great AND under 5'10"?

The Mets, in my opinion, have drafted too many short hitters over the years.

I remember the Mets drafting SS Branden Kaupe in the 4th round of 2012 (140th overall), and seeing he was 5'7".  Knowing nothing about him, I wondered why the Mets would draft such a short guy with such a high pick.  Was he super fast?  No.  He did steal 17 of 22, but he was up 600 times. 

Unusual power for his height?  No.  

An amazing hit generator?  No.  

An amazing contact hitter who rarely fanned?  No.  

The second coming of Ozzie Smith defensively?  No.  

Playing mostly 2B and some SS, he made a brutal 44 errors in about 150 games in the field.   So, why pick a short guy in the 4th round?  Or the first, 2nd, or 3rd rounds, for that matter?

In his career, which ended in A ball, Kaupe had 493 at bats plus 95 walks,  He ended up at .201, fanned 152 times, and had just 10 extra base hits (4 doubles, 6 triples) in roughly 600 PAs.  

"Far short" of MLB pedigree was Mr. Kaupe.  

If you are going to draft THAT poorly with a 140th overall pick, it makes me wonder if the scout who recommended him was a Russian agent; why not pick a guy who is 6'1" to 6'4" instead?  

Every time. 

Like a Rhys Hoskins, who was drafted 2 years later at # 142, and has 153 career HRs in 2,500 career MLB at bats.

Another short-in-stature Mets pick nearly 10 years back was 4th rounder Michael Paez, a 5'8" guy considered to have considerable pop for his size.  But that pop was not "pop enough" and he couldn't hit enough, either.  Just an overmatched short player.

Smaller hitters on average have less power than taller ones, and the smaller contingent tries to make it up through steals, hustle on the basepaths and defensively, and my sense is it seems to render them more error-prone.  If a shorter guy who heavily relies on speed gets hurt and loses a step or two, their competitive dvantage may be gone.

My advice?  Avoid all draftees under 5'10", as I think the odds of success get longer and longer as any given hitter gets shorter and shorter. 

Thoughts?  Keep it short, please.

20 comments:

  1. The Mets had 12 hits, 7 walks, and 3 hit batsmen. Equals 22 men on base. McNeil was the only hitter to not get on base. Where have you gone, Jeff McNeil?

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  2. Blow up the Mets? Seems the answer is no. The Mets' players have "spoken".

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  3. Mets pick up 6 games on Yanks, now trail by "just 11" with half the season left. Can the Mets win NY?

    Mets dump Tonkin, and he has relieved in 20 games for the Yanks, with a 1.04 ERA. How weird.

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    Replies
    1. But they didn't dump Houser, and he's doing just fine in Mendy's pen.

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  4. Euphoria killer:

    Drew Smith has a sore elbow, to IL. Surgery? Unclear. Ty Adcock (who?) recalled.

    Remember, Smith would not have pitched Sunday were it not for Sticky Edwin.

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  5. You know my feelings on short guys
    A I am 5’4

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  6. Well...

    The Mets have sure as he'll blown up my Blow It Up plan. Frankly now, you put off any thoughts on this kind of immediate future and strengthen this team this seasonbwith pen addition(s), a rental right fielder and even possibly a rental starter.

    The least you do is strengthen the pen

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  7. 191 rbis for Hack. Little guys can rake.

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  8. Mack and Tom,
    Pleased to see the Mets have moved Daiverson Gutierrez, one of the team's DSL catchers up To the FSL team.Gutierrez was a 2023 signing that was batting .300 with a 947 OPS,24 rbi in 14 games. Great to see our DSL players making advancements.

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  9. I'll take a team with Joe Morgan, Jose Altuve, Mookie Wilson, Lenny Dykstra, etc. all day. I have no problem with any player as long as they are a "baseball player". I don't care for the one-dimensional players that are 6'6". Dave Kingman could hit some gorgeous looking home runs, but did he really help win?

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  10. Well...the Mets are back at 500. Lets see how far up they can go in July.

    I don't see why the Mets would need to trade prospects.

    What they need is currently playing at AAA. Mostly a bunch of little guys.
    If they need another arm in the BP, Megill comes to mind while promoting either Scott or Butto.

    This team seems to be coming together so don't mess with a good thing. Just let be for now.

    Beating the Yankees made me happy.

    Yes, draft bigger players for once.

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  11. I think that the % of successful draftees under 6’0, or even under 5’10”, has to be much lower than those above 6’0”. I think then the odds are automatically better if you draft guys that are mostly 6’0” and taller. A taller guy and a shorter guy, if they lose a little as they age, or deal with injuries, I think the taller guys in general have more ability to compensate, simply because, all other things being equal, they have more power.

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  12. Eddie, 5’4” or not, you are a first rounder.

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  13. Mack, Soto is 6’2”. And a winner.

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  14. I wonder how much longer McNeil has as it's time to step up Jeff.

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  15. Willie Mays was 5'10. Hank Aaron about 6'0. Did pretty good for a couple of small guys.

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  16. Ray, some guys defy a theories. Willie was super 5 tool. I went to a game in the 1960s where Aaron was up. I snuck down about 10 rows behind the Mets dugout. Hank and those wrists buggywhipped a screaming liner foul. I thought right there, that is what set him apart from mere mortals.

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  17. The pitchers will make up the average height - have you seen the guys we are growing? Paul Gervase 6'10", Tyler Stuart 6'9", Bryce Montes de Oca 6'7", Junior Santos 6'7", Cam Foster 6'5", and that's just the AA pitchers.

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  18. Yanks got payback today. Their 2 DSL teams played the Mets’ 2 DSL teams. Yanks won both.

    ReplyDelete