How do I break up this team NOW, with what I’m seeing?
There has been lots and lots and lots of talk about the Mets blowing up the team and selling off key pieces, and giving up on 2024 and looking ahead to reposition and rebuild for future seasons, which for the Mets is an all-too-frequent occurrence.
I felt the same way 12 games ago. BLOW THEM UP. If they continue to suck.
They lost the game that day, and fell from 12-8 to 24-35.
That made it just 12 wins in 39 games. 1963 Mets baseball. Hopeless.
But then…
The next 11 games came along.
In those 11 games, the Mets have a 9-2 record, best in all of baseball.
So, we’re talking about blowing up a team that is winner 9 of their last 11 games, with 92 games to play.
Which makes complete sense….no, it doesn’t. Why?
The offense?
The team has scored 64 runs in those 11 games, a clear indication that the bats have woken up. And that was with very little contribution so far in that stretch from Jeff McNeil and Francisco Alvarez; one would presume that both will hit better than they’ve been hitting lately. JD Martinez is roaring (DH problem SOLVED) and Pete had a breakout game on Sunday. When he gets hot, he gets HOT.
Lindor was hitting .145 on April 18, but has hit like FRANCISCO LINDOR ever since. Let’s move on…
The pitching?
Severino’s been excellent, Manaea has been mostly good, Quintana, who I have criticized quite a bit, pitched very well in his last outing, Megill is looking better and better, and David Peterson looks confident and competent. Let’s move on…
The bullpen?
Edwin Diaz and Drew Smith are back from injury and looking sharp. Dedniel Nunez and Sean Foley have only fanned 50 in 39 innings, with 22 hits allowed and 8 earned runs, the word for which is “sensational”.
Adrian Houser went from gosh-awful starter to 1.59 as a reliever in 17 innings. Reid Garrett was bumpy for a bit, but is back to being sensational in June. 5.2 IP, 2 hits, 10 Ks. Ottavino has been shaky most of the year, but has allowed no earned runs in his last 3 outings. Diekman has been a bit shaky lately, but is still competent. Let’s move on…
The cavalry?
Brett Baty is hot and ready for recall whenever needed.
Even 1B/2B/3B/OF Luke Ritter (.261, 16 HR, 50 RBIs in 62 AAA games) and heating up OF Rhylan Thomas (2 HR yesterday) could help if needed. Both are quite solid defensively.
Christian Scott is ready if needed, and my bet is Brandon Sproat is ready in 6 weeks if needed. But he shouldn’t be needed, because the Mets ace, Kodai Senga, ought to be back before then.
But, Tom, wait a darned second…
Have you seen the scary upcoming schedule??
What I see is there are 24 games until the ASB, and the weighted average of those 24 games has the Mets facing teams averaging 7 games UNDER .500 through 70 games. Which,were it to continue, would be facing teams that collectively averaged out to 16 games under after 162 games. In simpler terms, on average, they are facing 73-89 teams.
The way I see it, the hot Mets could go 16-8 in those 24 games.
No guarantee, as these are the Mets, but I just outlined all the reasons they are currently hot, and that they will be facing collectively weaker teams.
So why not 16-8?
16-8 would bring them to 49-45 at the break.
They are now just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot with 90 games to go.
Maybe we’ll not sell, but add a stud reliever, in the weeks to come and, I dunno, even catch the Phillies?
Only 13.5 games ahead are those Phils. It was 16.5 games ahead before the last 11 games, so the Mets have gotten 3 games closer.
Realmuto could be out until after the ASB, too.
Me? I ain’t breaking up squat right now in Metsville.
Tug McGraw reminded me, YA GOTTA BELIEVE!
Perfect timing to have two articles back to back with opposing viewpoints. Fans and ownership are undoubtedly conflicted given the up and down nature of this team's performance. At their worst they should be disbanded. At their best they can make a run. My position is that you can't bet on a maybe/maybe not team. You need to build a team that can challenge for the championship year after year. There is never a better time to start building that than now.
ReplyDeletePaul,
ReplyDeleteThat payroll has to come down for us to continue to get a decent draft pick and to be able to afford younger free agents in 2025. I agree totally with you. How often have we overvalued our world series chances and traded off our prospects and got an over priced free agent and still failed to even make the playoffs. Learn from your mistakes.
Paul, the problem is you build a team to win, and then injuries come along, etc. It doesn’t work, no playoffs, and start over again. This team needs to above all else begin to get into the playoffs on an annual basis, like the Yankees. Their fans Take it for granted that they’re going to be in the playoffs every year
ReplyDeleteD J, I do not want to forgo the playoffs for a better draft pick. Cohen’s gotta figure out the money, deal with it and make all this work, like the Yankees and Dodgers.
ReplyDeleteIf this team does have Sengs, Severino, Diaz, etc. do they have no chance of going deep into the playoffs? I want a ring, now, not in 5 years “maybe”.
If they start losing again soon, blow it up. I think this team is ready for at least 14-10 in their next 24.
I don’t think that the FO will blow it up if they’re still playing well and in position to really challenge for the postseason. That said, given the number of teams still arguably contending, the trade deadline is set to be an extreme seller’s market. Martinez, Sevarino, and possibly even Bader and Manea are going to be worth far more than people think. I have a feeling that the current FO would be fine - even giddy - to have a chance to pick and choose from some of the better prospects out of good systems. It’s going to be a lot harder to take that next step without that kind of young talent infusion. I’m of course rooting for this team to go on a big run. But it’s still a tough decision, and selling at the deadline is still probably the better move.
ReplyDeleteThat Adam Smith, that’s why talks of selling off are premature. What if we are tied with the Braves and 7 behind the Phillies at the end of July? The Mets usually fail, but not necessarily always. Of course, though, the team is strategizing to the nth degree. Have to be ready for all possibilities.
ReplyDeleteThe two back-to-back articles by Paul and Tom are excellent reads.
ReplyDeleteI talked to Paul a week or so ago and mentioned that my interest in baseball is waning quite quickly (for more reasons than just the Mets poor play). I used to be a sports junkie of all types - football, basketball, hockey (not soccer, though) and followed everything closely, with baseball always being my first love.
Now I have completely dropped all sports other than baseball. I have no idea who won the NCAA B-Ball tournament this past year (a concept that would have been unheard of 25-40 years ago). I have just read a headline that the Celtics are trying to wrap up the NBA finals, but I wouldn't have a clue as to who their players are, or what other teams were in the playoffs.
(I have heard of Caitlyn Clark! :-) )
So, back to baseball. I try to read all articles on Mack's Mets daily - sometimes not until late evening, but I cannot just drop your writings and ideas. I will continue to try to write an occasional piece (hopefully monthly or 2x/month). I admit that I have not been commenting much recently, but I did want to add to this discourse.
I guess at this point, I am in Tom's camp. If they can somehow go 17-7 before the allstar break, they will be be 6 games over .500, most likely in the first or second wild-card slot.
That is a big IF, but IF they can do that, winning begets winning. Perhaps they are finding their groove and now have figured out the mental side of it.
My belief is that a teardown at this point, while providing the needed salary relief will delay any winning until at least 2026. There are not the horses in the AAA and AA stables that will bring automatic winning in 2025. And I also think that Soto is a pipe-dream. Yes, Cohen can offer up that kind of money, but (a) would he come to the Mets now and (b) what would a half-billion do to the salary structure of the team? That would have three players totaling over a billion dollars of funds for the next 6-10+ years.
They need to start playing good hard-nosed baseball with hit and run, stolen bases, first to third on singles, bunting runners over, winning games in extra innings by playing that type of smart baseball. I think Harrison Bader is the type of player that fits my mold of a winning player.
If, on the other hand, they play dispirited baseball over the next 24 and go 7-17, then toss it in. Me, being the optimist, believe they will be right in the thick of things.
Lastly, just to comment on what someone else has written, I do not believe for a minute that Edwin Diaz does not have the mental toughness to be a closer in New York. He is a great fit. There are games where his slider is not finding his spots and he gets in a little trouble, but I don't think that has anything to do with his head.
Remember 1969, you and I are mirrors. Hockey is long gone, I only watch the Super Bowl as far as college and pro football, hoopsdied for me when the Nets paid superstar money for self centered bums. But I do watch clips of Victor Wembayana, the 7’5” young freak of the San Antonio Spurs. He could be the NBA GOAT if he stays healthy.
ReplyDeleteWe saw the Mets in 1973 and in 2015. Both looked dead early on. Both made it to the WS. Almost won both. Why not this year too?
Mets up 11-2 in the 6th…BREAK THEM UP!
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