MACK - Players That May Be Around At 1.19 Today

 

Morning.

Well, today is Day 1 where the Mets first two picks will be decided by the end of the night.

We are going to try here and figure out what the first pick will be at 1.19.

First, the obvious...

Four bats and two arms will be long gone before the second or third commercial break. It doesn't matter which players are picked first. Odds are they will be the first six players picked in the draft, or, at worst, in the top ten.

In no particular order, they are:

OF/3B Charlie Condon - Georgia

2B Travis Bazzana - Oregon St.

1B/LHP Zac Caglianone - Florida

1B Nick Kurtz - Wake Forest

LHP Hagen Smith - Arkansas

RHP Chase Burns - Wake Forest 

Next, comes the four players that will go somewhere before the 19th pick. They are:

SS/2B JJ Wetherholt- W. Virginia 

SS/OF Konnor Griffin - HS

OF Braden Montgomery - TAMU

SS Bryce Rainer - HS

Frankly, past these 10 locked picks, the rest of this round is a crap shoot.  That's how quickly the talent level drops a notch. 

So, here are 15 players that could go in the first round and also could be around at 1.19. This is how fluid this draft is right now.

In no particular order, they are:

 

INF/OF Seaver King, Wake Forest 

King is one of the more unlikely come-ups of any prospect on this list. He spent the first two years of his collegiate career at Division II Wingate in North Carolina before transferring to Wake Forest, where he could prove his skills against ACC competition. He appeared regularly at shortstop, third base and center field for the Demon Deacons, leaving his future defensive home something of a mystery — but that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as it’s indicative of the athleticism and speed that enable such flexibility. 

He’s an aggressive swinger with good bat-to-ball ability, which resulted in few walks but also few strikeouts this spring. He might need to modify his approach in pro ball to ensure more consistent production, especially with just average power at best.

 

3B Tommy White, LSU 

Tommy Tanks is one of the more recognizable stars in this generation of college baseball, and that’s no accident: The dude hit 75 home runs across three years, including a walk-off blast in Omaha that helped propel the Tigers to the national championship in 2023. If there’s such a thing as “prospect fatigue,” White might be the rare example, as he has been picked apart by scouts for nearly a half-decade, despite an overwhelming track record of high-end offensive production. 

For teams that don’t believe he can stick at third base — he’s not awful there, but it isn’t always pretty — he probably belongs closer to the end of Round 1. I think he’ll be just fine, and I trust his ability to hit as much as just about anyone outside the top 10, so he stays in this tier.

 

 

William Schmidt, Catholic HS (Louisiana) 

Schmidt has somewhat closed the gap this spring, though, and appears primed to be the second prep arm off the board next week. His ultra-high-spin curveball is one of the best pitches in the class, and he was the ace for one of the most dominant high school teams in the country. Both pitchers are committed to LSU, but it would be shocking to see either make it to Baton Rouge, considering how many teams are expected to have interest in them in the middle of the first round.

 

 

3B Cam Smith, Florida State 

It was quickly apparent once Smith arrived in Tallahassee that the buzz he built among scouts during his senior year of high school, ahead of the 2022 MLB Draft, was entirely warranted. After a strong freshman year with the Seminoles, Smith was one of the most productive hitters in the prestigious Cape Cod summer league, and he carried that momentum into a monster second year with the Seminoles, cutting his strikeout rate in half and hitting .387 with 38 extra-base hits. His muscular, 6-foot-3 frame already resembles that of a big leaguer, and the rate at which he has improved the past two seasons has teams very excited about his potential.

 

 

1B/OF James Tibbs III, Florida State 

While Kurtz’s stock held serve or slightly dipped over the course of the season, Tibbs’ soared spectacularly. His bat kept leveling up during his three years in Tallahassee, culminating in a huge 2024 (1.264 OPS, 28 HR) en route to winning ACC Player of the Year — which Kurtz was the heavy preseason favorite to win. As with Kurtz, Tibbs’ defensive value is limited as he’s tethered to first base or a corner outfield spot. But for a guy projected as more of a second- or third-round talent coming into his junior year, the fact that Tibbs could go just a few picks after Kurtz — or even ahead of him — is an astounding achievement.

 

 

Cam Caminiti, Saguaro HS (Arizona) 

Following in the footsteps of Griffin and Franco, Caminiti moved up to the 2024 class this past June and will be one of the youngest players in the class, as he won't be 18 until a few weeks post-draft. While he's a two-way player at the present, most believe his future will be on the mound, where's he's flashed plenty of potential. 

He works fluidly and efficiently down the mound and creates a tough angle with crossfire, setting up a nightmareish at-bat for any left-handed hitter. The fastball has primarily been in the low-90s this past summer with solid life, getting up to 96-97 MPH earlier in the year, and given the projection to his long, lean frame, more velocity is expected. 

He has begun to hold velocity deep into starts, touching 97 MPH late into outings this spring. He's got feel for two different breaking balls, a low-70s curveball and an upper-70s slider, with the slider projecting better at the present time with firm shape. He'll need to add power to each pitch as he grows into his body. The change-up is solid and has some fading life in the low-80s, though it's been sparsely utilized.

 

RHP Ryan Sloan – York Community HS (PA) 

Sloan finished his senior season at York with a .30 ERA. The 6-foot 4-inch right-hander gave up 2 earned runs and struck out 90 batters through 46 innings with five walks—stats that could be credited in part to his even-keel attitude. The owner of a burly, physical frame, Sloan has the makings of a potential power arm. The Wake Forest commit does have some effort in the delivery, though there's quite a bit of scap load in his arm swing and he's added a solid amount of velocity. 

The fastball has gotten up to 99 MPH in shorter stints, working primarily in the low-90s, coming in with heavy armside run and sink. His fastball command lags behind a bit, so that'll be a primary development point in the off-season. The off-speed stuff in Sloan's arsenal are very strong, led by a low-80s slider with serious teeth. He's had a ton of success with the pitch, showcasing a ton of sweeping action and garnering plenty of whiffs in the process. 

He's got a mid-80s change-up with less velocity separation than you'd like to see, but it tumbles hard away from lefties and has the makings of an above-average weapon. If he can improve his command, this is a potentially upper-echelon arm in this class.

 

 

OF Carson Benge – Oklahoma State 

Benge starred as a two-way player in his two years in Stillwater, mostly excelling in a relief role when he wasn’t busy raking as the Cowboys’ right fielder. His future in pro ball is surely at the plate, as he possesses one of the more advanced left-handed bats in the class, exemplified by a sterling statistical résumé (1.062 OPS with more walks than strikeouts in 553 collegiate plate appearances).

 

 

OF Vance Honeycutt – North Carolina 

Finding guys with five tool potential is a tough task, but Honeycutt has the potential to be that type of player. Honeycutt showed plenty of improvements in the strikeout department in 2023, dropping the strikeout rate significantly, though that came with the price of production. 

In 2024, he's prioritized lifting the ball and has seen his whiff/chase rates balloon as a result. He may never find that happy medium with the hit tool, but it's nice to see the power return to his 2022 form, where he hit 25 home runs. 

His walk rate has held steady, as well. He's an excellent runner underway and he's shown it on the basepaths and in center, where he projects to stick long term. It's excellent range with defensive prowess, making highlight reel plays look easy. If a team can trust its development team to make the hit tool consistent, he'll unlock all five tools.

 

 

RHP Broady Brecht – Iowa 

Brecht’s triple-digit fastball and low-90s slider belong a lot closer to the top of the first round than the back half, but his long-standing struggles with command leave some teams wary about whether he’ll throw enough strikes to be a starter. He seemed to turn a corner in his final few starts for the Hawkeyes, and the hope is that he can carry that momentum into pro ball, where, with the right developmental environment, his elite raw stuff can be curated into a more efficient and effective arsenal.

 

 

OF Slade Caldwell – 

Were Caldwell a few inches taller than his listed height of 5-foot-9, it’s possible we’d be talking about him alongside Griffin and Rainer atop the prep class. But while his size might limit his ultimate power potential, Caldwell brings a ton else to the table as a dynamic leadoff type with plus bat speed and OBP skills from the left side and excellent range and defensive instincts in center field.

 

 

2B Christian Moore – Tennessee 

No one finished the college season stronger than Moore, the leadoff dynamo for the national champion Volunteers. He hit for the cycle in the opening game in Omaha before adding another homer a couple of days later to bring his season total to an astonishing 34, third in the country behind Condon and Caglianone. 

While he has made the occasional cameo at shortstop, Moore’s modest arm and inconsistent defensive actions likely limit him to second base, but his exceptional bat speed and strong contact skills ensure a substantial overall ceiling regardless of position.

 

 

LHP Kash Mayfield – 

Mayfield was Oklahoma's Gatorade Player of the Year this past spring, striking out 109 batters across 46.2 innings. His mechanics are deceptive and funky, creating a tough angle to the plate and he hides the ball very well. The ease of his operation really stands out and there's a solid chance he sticks as a starter at the next level. 

He's added plenty of velocity to his frame without adding effort to his delivery, pushing into the mid-90s, even the upper-90s, with big life late with the fastball. His change-up has excellent velocity separation in the low-80s and has great fading life, flashing plus. There's also a low-80s sweeper in his arsenal. While he'll be old for the class, Mayfield's easy operation and loud stuff with give him plenty of suitors in July.

 

 

SHP Jurrangelo Cintje – Mississippi State       

A switch-pitcher out of Mississippi State, Cijntje took the college landscape by storm in 2023 and attracted plenty of eyes, both from scouts and fans alike. He's draft-eligible this year due to his age, and while he'll continue to switch-pitch in 2024, the likelihood that he'll have to ditch it as a pro is high. He's incredibly athletic on the bump and the projection to his lanky frame really stands out. 

Scouts really like the stuff from the right side, where he's shown more velocity and has been up to 98 MPH with life through the zone. He'll feature a mid-80s slider with quality bite and a decent change-up, too. From the left side, he's more of an upper-80s/low-90s arm with a solid slider. He'll likely have to stick to pitching from the right side as a pro, but Pat Venditte wishes he could have this kind of stuff from both sides.