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7/20/24

Reese Kaplan -- July Wins or Status Quo Can Lead to Buying


To buy or to sell may very well depend on the record during the next ten playing days.  That conjecture may sound simplistic, but you get to certain points in a season where solid decisions need to be made.

Right now with the All Star break in the rear view mirror it would appear that the club is on a positive upswing.  While not delving into any specific game or play
er, the issue of greatest concern is the record.  On July 19th the Mets find themselves owning a very surprising 49-46 record, 3 games over .500 and a stunning turnaround from the 11 games under .500 the Mets found themselves sporting what seems like an eternity ago but it was during this 2024 season.


Now going into this 10-game stretch the Mets could propel and reinforce their tenure as a player in the post season.  The upcoming games against the Marlins should be easier than the couple against the Yankees, but the Marlins have often surprisingly played competitively.  The Yankees are a more flamboyant and intense kind of competition, but surprises happen there as well.  

Never forget that the very first interleague game was one by hardly stellar Dave Mlicki of the Mets.  Throw in the following four games against arch rival Atlanta Braves and finishing up the month with a pair against the Twins.  If you go by record alone, then the Marlins are the only team against whom they are playing towards the trade deadline with a losing record. 

Suppose the Mets split the upcoming ten game run.  They would still be 3 games over .500 and theoretically a part of the postseason wildcard race though whether they are further ahead or further back is unknown.  A .500 record is worse than they are playing right now and could tip the scale towards a selling mode though not a wholesale roster remake.

If the club is say 6-4 or better then the motivation to make changes is certain more as a buyer.  It would mean that the recent spate of success is not yet over and they are indeed contenders.  You might see a starting pitcher moved, some relief pitchers demoted or DFA’d and a spare outfielder or two acquired. 

The third possibility is a rough ten game period.  A 3-7 record would drop them a game under .500 that much deeper into the season and their likelihood of playing games in October becomes far slimmer than it is right now.  That would mean they would start playing the final day of July with a 52-53 record with only two months left to turn things around. 

Now the optimist in me is in favor of the first two scenarios seeing the Mets tinker with the roster to make incremental improvements over where they are now.  It’s not likely to see the Mets land a superstar bat as a rental such as Toronto’s Vlad Guerrero, Jr. who is rumored to be available. 


Some would call me a pessimist but I feel I am more of a realist.  

If the club finds itself below .500 over the next ten games then it is simply good business to accept the nice run for what it was, but rather than hoping to find a newcomer set of heroes from players on a hot streak or who simply needed a change of scenery, it would be more beneficial to play out the remainder of 2024 with what has been working using the folks who are likely to be here in 2025 but be prepared to trade away the ones who are not.  

Better to get something for them now than nothing at year’s end.

13 comments:

  1. Oddly, even losing last night, if Jeff McNeil is back, and it wasn’t a one game fluke, the Mets will roll. And buy.

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  2. Megill threw 5 in Syracuse, 2 hits, 4 walks, 7 Ks. Not shabby. He did it against a 10 games over .500 team.

    Nine run inning for Syracuse, Cortes 3 runner, Baty 0-2, 3 walks. Acuna 3 runs. Rhylan Thomas pulls a McNeil coming out of the break, snapping a slump with 3 hits. Ritter 66 RBIs.

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  3. Matt Rudick a walk off 2 run shot for Binghamton. Clifford another HR. Gervase fanned 2 in his inning to go to 3-1.

    Brooklyn trailed 5-0 heading into the 9th and rallied and won 6-5.

    Lucie? Reimer rehab 3 hits, including 2 doubles, and Gilbert singled.

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  4. My guess that there will be an internal meeting of all Mets decision makers at the end of the Atlanta series.

    It would be here where the decision whether to be a byer or seller would be determined.

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  5. I still think MLB should move the deadline to Aug 10 or Aug 15. So much guesswork at July 31, with so much of the season left.

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  6. McNeil still has an uncustomary number of swing and misses. Until that goes away I don't believe he is back.

    What really bothered me last night is that we can't get a good start out of a well-rested pitcher. Every one of our starters has had a hit-or-miss season, and that does not bode well. We need some of them to dominate 90% of the time if we want to say we are a contender.

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  7. Paul, after last night’s poorly pitched start on the road, Mets starters have a 4.96 ERA on the road. Ouch.

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  8. I'm worried about the middle part of our batting order. Neither JD nor Pete looks imposing

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  9. Tom, go see Thomas’s catch in CF for Syracuse yesterday. You’ll be very proud of how fast he closes in balls.

    Martinez just missed a homerun last night. He has been cold for a few weeks.

    I want the Mets to win, foremost, but can they do that and sell a few pieces too?

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  10. Quite a snag by Rhylan Thomas.

    This week I wrote about him: “Rhylan Thomas has struggled in AAA, batting under .220. A matter of time for his bat to kick in, IMO. “

    Well, a few days off and it did “kick in” and he had a great night.

    And….the “under .220” reference was AAA only. He is hitting .261 in AA and AAA combined this year.

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  11. Gus, one guy who I thought was hurt, Brandon McIlwain, was actually released on June 23 in AA. Surprising, since he was far from the worst offensive player in the top 3 minor league levels. But still, good to see they can cut ties with guys who in the past they would not have perhaps.

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  12. Tom, was the man released because he wasn’t getting action and was causing waves?

    You guys have to go to SNY and see some of the interviews for Alonso at the all-star game. His dress attire in Texas make him look like such a plantation owner, LOL.

    I’m wondering if Alonso can relax after the trade deadline and have a mini-breakout? He says that it isn’t in his mind, but…. If it isn’t, then, what happened?

    When I say trade, I’m talking Severino and Manaea. Both have no upside to them and Manaea has no command and Severino gets killed on the road.

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