“Put your money where your mouth is” was a phrase often used when I was a kid, that meant are you serious enough about this to lay down a big bet on it?
We will see how the 2024 draft unfolds.
Last year, from the 2023 draft, a number of draftees in the top 10 got under slotted, saving the Mets money to over-slot others.
A few players in the first 10 rounds got under-slotted, with a few getting just $50,000, while in the next 10 rounds, and a few in the first 10 rounds, several got considerably more than that.
Let’s look at the 9 over-slots and high bonuses given the rounds selected, as to how they are doing so far (round and pick # indicated for each):
4C (134): A.J. Ewing, HS draftee, 5’11” lefty bat
- Pick value: $483,000. Bonus: $675,000
- AJ turns 20 in a few weeks
- .223/.355/.397 with 71 Ks and 39 BBs in 54 games. 8 of 12 steals.
- Split 2024 between FCL and A ball
- Just 7 errors in 54 games at 2B and CF
8 (246): Boston Baro, HS draftee, 6’0” lefty bat
- Pick value: $192,900. Bonus: $700,000, a big over-slot
- Baro turns 20 in a month
- .271/.355/.384 with just 44 Ks and 29 BBs in 59 games. 5 of 6 steals.
- All of 2024 in A ball with St Lucy
- Just 8 errors in 49 games at SS, 2B, and 3B
After I wrote this, he went on fire and jumped to .288/.368/.403. A good one.
11 (336): Brett Banks, RHP, college, 6’3”. Bonus: $200,000
- Banks is 22 years old.
- used in relief in 14 games for St Lucie and Brooklyn. 3.14 ERA, 14 Ks
- Out since early June with an unspecified injury.
13 (396): Ben Simon, RHP, college, 5’11”. Bonus: $150,000
- 16 outings for Brooklyn, 26 IP, a K per inning, 4.21 ERA
- 8 innings in July, 2 hits, no runs, 6 Ks
14 (426): John Valle, RHP, HS, 6’3”. Bonus: $150,000
- Injured and out all of 2024 (TJS?)
- Age 19, has not yet pitched in any games
15 (456): Justin Lawson, RHP, college, 6’3”. Bonus: $125,000
- 23 years old.
- 0-2, 3.54 for Brooklyn. 40 Ks in 37 IP.
16 (486): Jake Zitella, 3B, HS, 6’0”, righty hitter. Bonus: $200,000
- 19 years old
- playing in FCL: .251/.355/.367 in 45 games.
- 1B and 3B, just 4 errors, all at 3B
17 (516): Bryce Jenkins, RHP, Tennessee. Bonus: $180,000
- 22 years old, 5 games, 4 Ks, in 2023
- Out the full season of 2024. (TJS?)
20 (606): Kellum Clark, OF, college, 6’3” lefty hitter. Bonus: $150,000
- 23 years old.
- Said to have decent power, which hasn’t shown up yet.
- Walks a ton.
- Red hot start to July in Brooklyn. Very quiet bat before July.
Conclusion:
Too early to conclude, but out of all of the over-slots, the most over-slotted, Boston Baro, has played the best so far. Perhaps, at this stage, he is the player out of these 9 most likely to make the majors in a major way.
Maybe another look-see at season’s end on these guys.
Of the 5 over-slot pitchers, 3 of the 5 are missing major amounts of time due to unspecified injuries.
VERLAN-DOUGH
The Mets as a result of 2023 trade terms still owed Justin Verlander $17.5 million of his $35 million option if it were to automatically kick in for 2025 - to do so, he would have to reach 140 innings. He won't.
After missing time early in 2024, he was only up to 57 innings before he got hurt in June. He's missed several weeks.
On July 19, he was starting to throw, based on this update I saw:
Verlander, who's not with the team on its West Coast road trip, will throw his second bullpen session on Saturday, targeting 20-25 pitches. Verlander returned to the mound Sunday for the first time since he pitched June 9 and subsequently landed on the injured list with neck discomfort.
- With that sort of update, one would think the earliest he will return is around the 110 game mark, and that would be very aggressive. If he stayed healthy then, he'd get perhaps 10 starts to add 83 innings. 8.3 innings per start. Which no one does these days. And they obviously want him 100% ready for the playoffs so, like the Mets not rushing Senga, the Astros won't rush JV, nor will they load him up with innings.
So, it looks like the Mets are off the hook for that $17.5 million option, which will immensely help them in terms of the amount of luxury tax for 2025, and any impact on future drafts beyond 2025.
JUST FOR YOU TO CHEW ON:
McNeil on road this year? .273/.325/.473. Not shabby.
McNeil at home this year? .180/.244/.248. Guys get released for that.
Speedy Dudes Like Nick Morabito Give Opposing Teams Indigestion
ROADRUNNER:
Nick Morabito has 41 steals already this year, to go along with his .300+ average and .400+ OBP.
And plenty of games left to get those steals up to 60+.
“ME MEEP!”
HOUCK QUINTUPLET
2023 Mets 1st rounder Colin Houck in St Lucie Wednesday: 0-5 with 5 Ks.
He now has 131 Ks in 81 games. Wow, that’s a lot.
The Mets in 2023 slipped 10 picks down from # 22 due to overspending.
The actual # 22 pick, Colt Emerson, has hit .326 in his pro career so far.
It’s very early in he careers of both. But still:
Penalties can cost you.
It certainly looks like The Magic Is Back. Let’s win the division.
ReplyDeleteRule needs to be changed...
ReplyDeleteManaea, for the second time this year, in games the Mets won by a combined 20-5 score, went 4.2 innings, so he failed to secure the win. Ottavino faced one batter, threw 4 pitches, got a valuable out, and got the W for his 5th inning 4 pitch effort.
Starters due to hitter battles go so much shorter into games that the rule for being eligible for a W should be lowered from 5 innings to 4 innings.
BTW, the 6-4 Manaea has started 20 games, and the Mets are 13-7 in those starts so the beneficiary relievers are 7-3. Too many wins and losses for relievers in general - reduce it to 4 innings for a starter to win.
Fun two games
ReplyDeleteNow
Pass the Braves
Tom,
ReplyDeleteThe Mets have signed their first round pick. He is now a prospect we can start looking forward to following his progress.
Last night's game was fun to watch.
D J and Mack, agreed.
ReplyDeleteLet’s get Benge to St Lucie ASAP
I'm a big fan of letting college players the rest of the year off
ReplyDeleteThat being said, start Benge next season in Brooklyn
Let Benge get his feet wet this year. No need to coddle him.
ReplyDeleteIt’s going to be interesting to see how deeply Stearns reaches into the farm system, which I think is not as deep as people had hoped it would be, to improve this club. On the other hand, while I think that the FO came into this season aiming realistically for 2026, there are signs that maybe they now believe they have enough pieces already in place to achieve their “transition” while remaining seriously competitive this year (clearly) and next. Given that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them dig very deep into the system to trade for a guy or two with a couple years of control remaining, rather than targeting strictly rentals.
ReplyDeleteI keep wondering who these guys are who are wearing our uniforms but I like it! WOW that was exciting kicking Yankee butt and now the Bravos. I just remember barely splitting with the Fish when we should have at least won 3 so please guys no let down after the Yankee sweep. Also exciting is waiting to see what David will do next week and could Pete finally be ready to break out stay tuned. Mack so our 2 best prospects below AA are Moribito and Baro and has Tyler Stuart who has lowered his ERA from almost 5 to 3.96 turned the corner?
ReplyDeleteHouck also made and error last night (17?).
ReplyDeleteI want to trade for Zach Efflin, and for Patrick Corbin for the bullpen.
I want to see Baty back up. Any news on his reps at 2B? Didn't he also play LF in the past? If the rest of the team is hitting well I say dump DJ, bring him up and play him in the OF/ 2B and have the resurgent McNeil move around. but then we also have Iglesias... Hmmm. Unless he falls off you have to keep him in the mix, maybe not enough reps for Baty.
ReplyDeleteEither way, I want DJ gone. He's dead weight. If we could get Canha back for level prospect / salary relief he's be a great replacement for DJ and extra clubhouse chemistry to boot.
Something like that and pen reinforcements is what we need. Would totally go for a high level reliever with multiple years of control even if you have to give up something. Would help this year and for the next year or two.
Super nice that we're not going to be on the hook for Verlander next year. makes taking on potential salary for a high end reliver more palatable
I haven’t seen him play there, but I’ve seen him play. And while he’s definitely improved as a 3B, I’m pretty confident saying that we do NOT want to see Baty playing 2B at the big league level in a playoff race. Add his limited mobility and lack of experience to the pressure of the moment for a guy who’s already demonstrated that he may lack confidence, and it seems like a set up for him to fail. Leave him where he is and depending on what happens with Pete, give him a fresh shot next year to prove he belongs, somewhere, on the big club. That’s if he’s not included in a package going out in the next week, which I think is a real possibility.
ReplyDeleteGood points, gents.
ReplyDeleteGus, Houck supposedly only partially focused on BB in high school (think he was a QB too), so maybe he'll do better next year, but they should have started him in the FCL.
The next week should be MIGHTY interesting.
Gary
ReplyDeleteStuart's last few outings have been nice. He should open 2025 in Syracuse
Hard for me to say who are the top prospects right now
Very disappointed in the chain right now
Tom do you or Mack have the collection of who signed (and how much) of this draft
ReplyDeleteAnd yes dont pitch benge this year but he should be playing this year...
he has had several weeks off... he is 21 he should be ok to play this year and rest in late sept when the season is over
get use to being a pro
Eddie, I think Mack has that list. Mack, if you do, please share if you can.
ReplyDeleteI would be disappointed if Benge is not playing before the end of July. Get in the fray!
Adam, I will say this: I am so glad that Vientos won that job. He frankly is playing like an All Star.
ReplyDeleteLast night they signed Benge, only the 9th rounder and the 20th rounder are unsigned.
ReplyDeleteGus is Snyder signed?
ReplyDeleteThe other two are Jelkin and Adam Haight.
They ended up with some savings from the other signees, so let's see which of these 3 we can get with the remaining Cohen Bucks.
Per Mike Mayer, Trey Snyder is signed, so yes, the Mets are down to 2.
ReplyDeleteThis may sound harsh, but not getting the W last night is an appropriate penalty to Manaea for walking too many, including his last batter. If he can't finish five innings with 100 pitches (I think it was 96?), then he can't win because he caused more than four innings of stress on the bullpen with an important series with Atlanta coming up.
ReplyDeletePaul, I do get your point, but I also love that they are 13-7 in his starts. I just think it is worth studying simply how many pitcher starts in say 1986 in MLB went over 5 innings, % wise, vs. how many these days. Hitters hit far more HRs now than in 1986, so pitchers have to tried to really hit spots to keep the ball in the park, more so than 1986. I think if you put Manaea in 1986, every start would be at least an inning longer, maybe two.
ReplyDeleteNot to belabor it, but case in point, the Mets hit 5 HRs last night, and very nearly had 7.
ReplyDeleteTom, if that’s the excuse for him, then why draft him #32?
ReplyDeleteThe lineup I want to see tonight:
Lindor
Nimmo
Alonso
McNeil
Martinez
Vientos
Alvarez
Inglesias
Bader/Taylor
Tom,
ReplyDeleteMLB draft tracker has fifth round selection, Synder signed at $1,123,000.Looks as if he is our top over slot high signing so far.
Gus, apparently, Houck was around # 15 and slipped to us at # 32. One needs to be very suspicious of slippage like that.
ReplyDeleteHopefully that Marte knee is healing up - add him to this line up, which has scored the most MLB runs since their first comatose 7 games this year when they scored 16 runs, and we have a rocket fuel offense.
Atlanta with the great Chris Sale but without Acuna, Albies, and Stryder makes the Braves feel like the Phillies when Carlton won 27 of their 59 games.
ReplyDeleteSale feels like he's have been a Hall of Famer if he stayed healthier.