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7/19/24

Tom Brennan: Why Wait to Acquire? David Stearns, Do It Now. And Crispness


Having seen Hunter Harvey throwing fireballs against the Mets recently, he then gets dealt to Kansas City to buttress their bullpen, in exchange for their # 2 overall prospect and their compensation pick.

So...two questions:

What do the Mets need?

What are they waiting for?

I'd say the Mets need a real bullpen arm, preferably lefty... 

And preferably a lefty hitter to replace a bunch of the lefty ABs of DJ (where's my pink slip?) Stewart and JT McNeil (his middle name happens to be Todd, so maybe a change of moniker helps him out at the plate.  I like the ring of JT McNeil).

JD and JT have hit .202 in 435 at bats this year, with 18 doubles, 10 HRs, and 43 RBIs.  In other words, they are hitting like Brett Baty (2023), not nearly good enough.  And Tyrone Taylor has hit mostly poorly since April, too.

So, I scanned over a list of likely available trade targets from Mark Feinsand writing for MLB.

Here is what I thought:

Why not consider trading for the available Jazz Chisolm, who plays both the outfield and 2B (and even some SS), bats lefty, and hits .249/.324/.407 with 18 steals this year.

 - Jesse Winker as an alternate pick up?

Bullpen?  Well, Harvey is gone.  But the Mets REALLY NEED A LEFTY, with Raley gone and Diekman pitching like he is 37 (wait, he is 37!)

So what about lefty Tanner Scott? 1.24 ERA, 14 saves in 39 appearances?

Or the Nats' Kyle Finnegan (2.45 ERA, 25 saves)?

Or Carlos Estevez, who I imagine could be cheaper?

Or Oakland's 102 MPH flamethrower Mason Miller.  

My brother Steve likes him, and says, why stop at one pen arm, get two.

It will take prospects to get these guys. 

Sproat? Untouchable. (My brother asked why?  I said because I say so). 

Who else could the Mets package in a trade?   

Answer:

Whoever's needed to be in the package(s). 

Drew, Jett, Morabito, Gervase, Ramirez, Parada, Tidwell, etc. 

I'll provide the packing labels when they get shipped out.

Make it happen.

This Mets team, with a Chisolm and Scott "twin fix", could be super tough.  

I say, do it.

With Chisolm, and the presumed return of Marte in a few weeks, the outfield/infield would get a major upgrade.  

The Mets' already thundering offense truly might then be unstoppable.

With Senga due back shortly, I like the rotation a lot.

Adding a Tanner and/or Kyle to the bullpen mix, with a presumed return soon from the IL by Sean Foley also, will make the pen average or better.

A team like that could without wishful thinking go deep in the playoffs.


DSL DOOZIES

How does a team score 8 runs in an 8-7 win on just 4 hits while stranding 11? 

The DSL Orange Mets pulled that off, walking SEVENTEEN times, and won despite making SEVEN errors that led to allowing SIX unearned runs. 

You know, a typical crisp DSL baseball game.

The Mets Blue DSL team scored 7 runs on 17 hits, but lost 9-7, while making “only” SIX errors leading to SEVEN unearned runs.  

More crisp baseball.


LET US HOPE…

That the other returning minors teams, and the NY Mets, play very crisp, WINNING baseball coming out of the ASB.


BARREL RATE

There are stats for everything in baseball. How about Barrel Rate?

Baseball Savant site has stats on “barrel rate”, how often a hitter barrels up on pitches. 

Judge naturally tops 15.6% of his plate appearances.  

Vientos is 14th in all of baseball at 10.6, Lindor a fine 15th at 10.0, and Alonso is way down at 47th at 8.0, roughly half of Judge’s rate.

Yanks have #’s 1, 3, 4: 

Judge, Rice(!), and Soto.

- In that stat category, the Yanks’ Big 3 have the Mets’ Big 3 over a barrel.

The 15.6% Judge rate is extraordinary. In Pete’s 53 HR rookie season, he was 14th at just 9.5%, while only Nelson Cruz (12.5%) was above 11.7%.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE TWO YEARS CAN MAKE

Jeff McNeil wins the 2022 batting title, hitting .326.  Dominic Smith had no homers in 134 at bats that year and hit .194.

This year, Smith is a PT first baseman for the Red Sox, and while he is not lighting the world on fire, he has done this:

.233/.324/.367, 28 RBIs in 180 at bats.

McNeil?

.216/.276/.314, 24 RBIs in 296 at bats.

Seemingly impossible, but there you go.   One factor?  McNeil is 32, Smith is 29.  Boy, heading into your 30s in baseball can be, occupation-wise, like Joe Biden heading into his 80s.


13 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Sorry for my lack of participation this week. Very busy creating 3 draft posts each day

      Mets are close to making an incredible deal to add a top starter and it will cost them nothing

      Kodai Senga

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  2. The age factor is exactly what concerns me most about giving Alonso a big multi-year contract. Especially since the history on right-handed power hitters is not so good after the age of thirty years old. Pete has been good, but I really think, for the club's long-range plan, it is time to move on and get what we can for him at the trade deadline.

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    Replies
    1. Clifford will be ready here in 2026

      Vientos could fill in here next season

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  3. Lee, I agree to move on from Pete, spend $$ elsewhere. Keep him thru the season and playoffs, while he has an incentive to excel, going into free agency hot.

    I have chronicled in so many articles how guys drop off after 30, some slightly, but many badly. Of course, there are exceptions, such as Moises Alou, but not many. If Pete wanted 2 years, $70 million, I’d be fine with that as of right now. He wouldn’t be.

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    Replies
    1. Don't have to look as far as Alou. How about our own current DH?
      I think he's over 30.

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  4. Tom, the incentive to excel has not worked for him so far. I don't think he will respond positively to all the pressure to excel. He has not contributed very much to the Met's resurgence so far. Instead of getting only a fourth-round pick , Stearns should see if he can do better than that at the trade deadline.

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  5. Les, I think if Pete is traded away, the Mets will miss the playoffs. I think if he stays, they get in. That is a huge miss.

    I just don't see teams that are talented, even if flawed, saying, ahh, we'll skip the playoffs for some marginal future improvement.

    I'd only do it if some team gave us one of their top 3 prospects. And one that has real near term MLB potential.

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  6. Alonso has not had a commanding year and a return via a trade would minimum

    I would keep him around for the race and then offer tops 4 years

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  7. Who will be the better career Met…Alonso, or Alfonso?

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  8. Getting back to our pen needs, I'd love to have any of the top guys already mentioned, though the cost of getting them would be high.

    I'd like to see if Megill and/or Lucchesi could be effective there before giving up top prospects.

    OTOH, most of our prospects play IF spots other than 1B, and SS is taken. Probably 3B, too.
    . The trick is deciding which to keep and which to trade without ending up with egg on our face.Between Williams, Acuna, Baty and Mauricio, plus others I can't think of right now, we've got a surplus.

    The trick is in knowing which of them to keep. But that's why David, instead of any of us, gets the big bucks.

    It'll be an interesting 12 days.

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  9. Mets have to be very very careful with any trade that takes away prime prospects as you suggest. Wait and see what this team can do with the Marlins, Yankees, Braves series before going outside the organization.

    The Mets cannot forget that they are trying to build long time success by building a proper minor league system. They cannot sacrifice that for a possibility of a 3rd wild card.

    Again, after the above upcoming series, the Mets will have the direction they need to follow. If they are a couple of games better than they are now then you add. If it is the other way, you hold.

    ReplyDelete