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8/20/24

MACK - Tuesday Morning Observations (Mack's Top 11-20 list)

 

This morning, we move on to my top 11-20:

 

20 - 3B Jesus Baez – signed on 1-15-22 for a $275K bonus, much less than highly regarded Simon Juan and Willy Fanas from the same signing period. Hit – 45, Power – 55, Run – 40, Arm – 60, Field – 50, Overall – 40. In-game power from huge bat speed. Originally pull side only, but that’s changing. Lowering K rate. Below average runner. Projects long term to third. Only 19. Love this guy.

ETA - 2027

 

19 - C Ronald Hernandez – IFA signing for $850K in January 2021 by Miami fur traded to the Mets in July 2023 as part of the David Robinson deal. Hit – 50, Power – 40, Run -30, Arm – 50, Field – 55, Overall – 40. Loud swing from both sides. More power generated from left side. Defensively, presents a solid game. Pitchers love him. Arm strength is only average which limits his game going forward. DHing and playing more first base this year. Solid year for St. Lucie at 20 years old. Me? 

ETA - I see his power continuing to grow and I consider him becoming Francisco Alvarez’ backup, beginning in the 2028 season.

 

18 – SP Nate Dohm – drafted in the 3rd round of the 2024 draft. Dominated at Mississippi State in his junior year… when he played. Had multiple arm problems but came back to continue his Friday night magic. Mets stole this guy in the third round. Without injury, he would have been a late first, or supplement first round pick.

ETA - past injuries will probably slow pace of Dohm. My guess in the 2028-29 range.

 

17 – 3B/2B/SS Boston Baro – 8th round pick in the 2023 draft. Hit 50, Power 40, Run 50, Arm 50, Field 50, Overall 40. Signed to well above $700,000 slot out of high school. Easy left-handed swing. Excellent plate approach. Gap hitter for average. Above-average runner. Good action on direct. Excellent arm. Can play all three infield positions, but Mets will target him to second. Has had an impressive year for St. Lucie this season. Only 19. This is easily the best over-slot signing of the Cohen era. 

ETA - Should move fast and could be ready by 2027.

 

16 – SP Jonah Tong – 7TH round 2022 draft – Prep draftee. It’s not only the 95 fastball… it’s the elite levels of vertical break on it. He compliments this with a 12-6 nasty curve. Started out like a house on fire, but has settled down into a strikeout machine. Only 20. There is a tremendous amount of projectable success here, but the Mets need to let it develop over the next two seasons. 

ETA - Will be ready in 2027.

 

15 – SP Douglas Orellana – 22-year old IFA signed July 2021. High ¾ slot. Changed from long action to short arm approach. Violent delivery with head jerk. Tends to fall off the mound sometimes, effecting control. Fastball in 95 range, 2375-RPM. Slider, cutter, and curve. Slider now his go-to pitch… average 85, sharp two-plane movement with 2560 RPM. Huge swing and miss with this pitch. I fell in love with this guy early and he has really impressed anyone that has seen him pitch this year in Brooklyn. Mystery injury ended this season early. For some reason his name doesn’t show up on many Mets top prospect lists. I consider him one of the top 5 starters in the chain.

ETA - 2027

 

14 – SP Tanner Witt – 14th round pick this year out of Texas. Excellent 1-2 punch with a 97 fastball and a 12-6 hammer. Big prospect out of high school. 6-6/195 frame. Big time reliever in freshman year. After two sophomore starts, developed soreness and went down for TJS. Been a disaster since. Witt has only pitched in 13 games over the past three seasons. This is a long shot here, but I think the Mets can target him for a long term goal of becoming a closer. 6-6… 97 FB… hammer curve. Watch out if he gets his confidence back.

ETA - 2028 as a starter... 2027 as a reliever.

 

13 – SP Jonathan Santucci – 2ND round this year out of Duke. Friday night starter. Strikeout machine. 6-2, 210 solid frame. Lefty throws ¾ low arm slot. Leg kick and long arm action. Mid-90s fastball, topping at 97. Flat approach to batters generates the whiffs. Above average slider and change. Throws all three pitches from same slot and arm speed. Was very successful at a school playing top talent. Downside is injury history (first, bone chips in elbow, then, rib injury), but, when healthy a projected front end starter. Great pick in a weak pitching draft.

ETA - latest, 2027

 

12 - SP Blade Tidwell – I’m sure some of you didn’t expect me to ranks Tidwell above some other starters. Raw talent wise, he is a AAA prospect out of a major school that would have been a top six pick if his arm didn’t act up. Has all the tools needed… top slider in chain… but is having a very difficult time in the dreaded International League. Might be ahead problem at this point. Still, this guy has it and the organization should have the patience with him to solve his current problems. I would have him repeat Syracuse next season, knowing he always has the talent to someday be a great one inning reliever.

ETA - needs another year at AAA... 2026

 

11 - 3B Brett Baty -  My, how the mighty have fallen. I don’t have to go into all the scouting reports here. We pretty much got an idea what we have here. Though hot and cold, he has always showed huge power at the AAA level. Does he take that bat to Queens town? Well, past his first Mets at-bat ever… nope. 

Still only 24 and will be a free agent in 2029. To me, there are attractable things now only as a trade come-on. My guess is the Mets have mentally moved on to Baty being their future third baseman, and though they are testing him this season at second, they have better prospects playing that position. Thanks Brett. We hardly knew ya.

ETA -  this Septembet


Transactions –

 

            Mets –

            Ben Gamel for assignment

                        2024 Mets – 23-AB, .217

 

            Syracuse –

            RP Grant Hartwig transferred from AA

                        2024 AA – 3-apps, 12.00-ERA

            OF Eddie Rosario signed

                        2024 Braves – 78-AB, .154

            RHP Alex Young optioned from New York

2024 Mets – 0.3-WAR, 0-0, 1.29, 7-IP, 8-K

            RP Vinny Nittoli signed

                        2024 Baltimore/Oakland – 0.4-WAR, 0-1, 1.50

 

            Binghamton –

            RHP Wilkin Ramos - Transferred from AAA Syracuse to AA Binghamton

                        2024 AAA – 16-APPS, 3-2, 6.14

            RHP Carlos Guzman - Transferred from AAA to AA Binghamton

                        2024 Syracuse – 6-APPS, 0-1, 4.15, 8.2-IP, 10-K

C Matt O'Neill - Transferred from AAA to AA Binghamton

                        2024 Syracuse – 50-AB, .160

 

Brooklyn –

P Austin Troesser promoted from St. Lucie

                        2024 Lucy – 13.0 K/9. 34.4K%

C Orangel Rodriguez released

                        2024 Cyclones – 8-AB, .250

C/1B Jose Hernandez released

                        2024 Cyclones – 48-AB, .104

 

            St. Lucie –

            1B Corey Collins placed on the 7 day IL

                        2024 St. Lucie – one at-bat

OF Willy Fanas to development list

                        2024 StL –  205-AB, .200

            OF Carson Benge added to roster (1st round 2024)

                        2024 Okla St. -  248-AB, 24-2B, 18-HR, 64-RBI, 1.109-OPS

            1B Corey Collins added to roster (6th round 2024)

                        2024 Georgia  -  158-AB, 20-HR, 58-RBI, 56-BB, 1.346-OPS

            2B Nick Roselli added to roster (11th rd 2024)

                        2024 Binghamton U –      .388/.492/.780/1.230

            CF/1B Eli Serrano added to roster (4th rd 2024)

                        2024 NC State -  246-AB, 9-HR, 39-RBI, .285/.380/.431/.811

            CF/LF Jacoby Long added to roster (17th rd 2024)

                        2024 Univ. Miami  -  175-AB, .303/.371/.446/.816

            RP Estarlin Escalante promoted from FCL Mets

                        2024 FCL:   14-APPS, 1-1, 4.00, 18-IP, 24-K

 

            FCL –

            OF Fabian Machado released

                        2024 FCL – 94-AB, .223

            OF Donavan Antonia released

                        2024 FCL -  71-AB, .169

            C Orangel Rodriquez released

                        2024 FCL -  39-AB, .282

            RP Nick Bautista III released

                        Career – 34-G, 3-7, 6.80-ERA

            RP Juan Oramus released

                        2024 - IL

 

            DSL –

            Mexican RHP Christopher Rochin added to roster

                        No previous professional stats

            RHP Greidi Pina activated from restricted list

                        No previous professional stats

 

9 comments:

  1. Any more should be released in the months ahead.

    Mack, I understand about Baty on your list, but he’s had 602 MLB plate appearances already.

    I like the list and the guys on it. But I am suspect about Orellana being in the top 20. I think Tong is well above Orellana, now and longer term. Besides, those 60 day IL stints for pitchers like Doug make me nervous. Maybe Orellana is a future good pen arm, but I hesitate to conclude them until he gets out of pitchers’ paradise SAL, and up to AA and AAA.

    Finally, I am glad to see you love Jesus. I rank Jesus higher, of course.

    ReplyDelete
  2. And as a reality check, Elly DeLa Cruz is 2 years younger than Baty, who turns 25 in 3 months. Seems like Billy Beane II to me. Or an upgraded DJ Stewart. Or the second coming of Dominic Smith, which is not a high ceiling.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don’t diss Dominic Smith like that. The guy hit over .300 in a season.

      Delete
  3. I realize these lists are each person’s opinion, and that allows us to gleen something into each player that we may not know about. My problem is how system wide, there isn’t any hitter doing really well. Not one. They fired the previous hitting organizational guy and they hired Sandy Alderson with his “swing hard and don’t worry about the strikeouts” approach. Why can’t the Mets get good philosophies and have them Implemented? It doesn’t seem like the Mets have a single hitter in the ENTIRE system that doesn’t hunt homeruns, other than maybe Acuna. Ted Williams said that power is the last hitting attribute to come. One should master zone recognition and bat control. What the hell does that guy know?

    ReplyDelete
  4. I know the Orioles have their Vertical Bat Angle technique, but to me the number one stat should be hard hit rate in the minors, not homeruns. I want low strikeouts, good walks and hit it hard every time. We can work on hunting pitches to lift when you learn the strike zone.

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  5. Mack, please put a link or list the previous prospects so we can see all the names together. It’s hard to remember from the previous article who was listed and where.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Gus, Baty has hit over .300 for a few weeks a few times :)

    ReplyDelete
  7. Gus, the minors hitting, excluding AAAA guys, has been very dismal. “What do the best orgs do?” is a question that demands an answer.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Pleased to see four 2024 draftees make the top 11-30 list. Our future.

    ReplyDelete