Paul Articulates – Three ways to win a wild card

The New York Mets remained 2.5 games out of the last wild card position after yesterday’s tough loss to the Padres.  The Mets leave San Diego with a split series, which is what one would have hoped for given the Padres’ hot streak and the difficulty of flying west again.  However, after winning two of the first three and then leading by two going into the eighth inning, it was a difficult pill to swallow.  

Not to worry, baseball games are won or lost sometimes on a single pitch or a single swing of the bat.  Last night was two swings of the bat against two very good relievers so both Jose Butto and Edwin Diaz will have to have a short memory.  In a playoff chase, teams heat up and teams cool down.  I see the Padres cooling down and they will fall back into the pack.  The Braves are hanging by a thread with all of their injuries and I don’t think they have the players to withstand a challenge from a hot team.

So what does it take for the Mets to be that hot team that overtakes the crowd for one of the playoff spots?  I would argue that there are three ways they can get there.

1) Hitters need to hit.  In the last few months, Brandon Nimmo has been ice cold.  He has hit .188/.295/.313 in July and .194/.280/.361 in August.  That’s probably the longest slump he has endured in his professional career and it is due to end.  Increased production from Nimmo puts more men on base in front of two other hitters that are due for a surge.  JD Martinez is characterized by those who know as a “professional hitter”.  Even pros go through slumps, but JD is more likely to pull out of it quickly than most others.  

Given his .194/.284/.417 August, I would project that September will see his return to the form of someone who has compiled a .868 career OPS over 14 seasons.  Pete Alonso is also about ready to break out. He has struggled through a lackluster season on his final contract year, but I don’t expect it to continue.   

He has always been streaky, and a couple of hard hit balls recently are just what he needs to get the feel of his swing back.  I would expect him to put up big numbers in September in both RBI and XBH.  Francisco Alvarez is also a dangerous bat waiting to explode.  Hopefully his walk-off last Monday will propel him back to relevance. 

2) Starters figure it out.  The starting pitching for the Mets has been a weakness this year.  They have failed to go deep into ball games and hurt their chances by issuing too many walks.  Recently a few of the starters have shown signs that they have figured something out.  Sean Manaea has put together a string of solid starts as he attacks the top of the strike zone more often.  He could be a difference maker if he continues to throw like he has in August.  He has a 1.00 WHIP and a 3.38 ERA in the past month.  Luis Severino has also pitched better recently, posting an identical 3.38 August ERA and going deep into ballgames.  Many have wondered how his arm would fare this year with the increased number of innings he has thrown, but he does not look like a tired pitcher.  

David Peterson has also looked much better lately, as evidenced by Saturday’s 7.1 inning, 5 hit, 1 ER outing.  After an initial struggle on his return from the IL, Peterson has strung together some good starts and looks more confident than ever.

3) Strength through depth.  This is probably one of the least discussed topics this year, but the Mets have been able to maintain a pretty deep bench.  Guys like Iglesias, Taylor, Torrens, and most recently Winker have given the Mets the ability to rotate players through rest and keep them healthy.  As the summer wears on, less deep teams will begin to see stress cracks in their personnel, but the Mets can keep running fresh players out there.  

The depth allowed the Mets to withstand another Marte injury without a let-down like we saw in 2022.  Carlos Mendoza has the luxury of riding the hot hand in the month of September, as he has extras in both the infield, outfield, and behind the plate that can hold their own.

It is always a challenge to put on a run in September to overcome several hungry playoff-ready teams, but if the Mets can master at least two out of these three areas in the coming month, we could see playoff baseball again this year.  Let’s go Mets!