Reese Kaplan -- How Much For Pete Alonso and Is He Worth It?

For folks who have been longtime Mets fans (perhaps even from the beginning in 1962) there have been few offensive players homegrown who could hold a candle to the things accomplished by first baseman Pete Alonso.  Forget his Rookie of the Year, his consecutive Home Run Derby victories and his power metrics which rank among the best in the game.  No, the issue today is whether or not the team is ready to move forward without him.

Yes, everyone knows that Alonso is a free-agent-to-be with uber Agent Scott Boras looking out to protect his client’s coffers while enriching his own.  The front office and new ownership has had ample time to put together a reasonable extension offer to keep the big guy in the dugout for the foreseeable future, but nothing in that regard has come to pass.

Instead, given the Boras track record and the human nature to test one’s value on the open market it would seem that Alonso is indeed going to exercise a one-time massive contract and payday which could leave the Mets with at best a turned-down QO draft pick after having enjoyed what the man has done for his ballclub.

That being said, until the past week Alonso was having what for him could be described as a bit of a down year.  Yes, he’s going to eclipse 30 home runs easily but reaching 40 might take a massive hot streak as the season draws to a close at the end of September.  Still, he is on track for triple digit RBI numbers accompanied by a slugger’s mediocre .250 or thereabouts batting average.  Some people feel that his extended inability to drive in runners for a very long interval is reason enough to let him leave. 

Interestingly, the Mets made their run towards a wild card berth in the playoffs which made them into buyers rather than sellers at the trade deadline as July drew to a close.  That strategy may or may not work but even with passing Atlanta in the standings, the team is not a rock solid guarantee to advance to October games. 

What the club did not do in July was to give Alonso the Scherzer/Verlander treatment and send him packing for a package of choice prospects which could help in 2025 or 2026.  Right now the gamble taken is a stiff one since there is no reason other than a gross overpay that would entice Alonso to bypass the crazy bidding.  Now the Mets could join that fray but it means they did not seriously try to exploit their private negotiating window and likely would have to dig quite deeply into Steve Cohen’s pockets for that inaction.

How much is Alonso going to get?  Well, he’s not looking at Juan Soto money but it’s far from chump change.  For a quick refresher, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Bryce Harper and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. are examples of guys who play the same position and who have received long term deals.  34 year old Gold Glove winner Freeman makes $27 million per year as a part of a 6-year deal.  The Braves gave now 30 year old Olson $22 million per year for 8 years.  Two-time MVP and former Rookie of the Year Bryce Harper averages about $26 million per year over the duration of his contract.  Now 36 year old Paul Goldschmidt is earning the same but having a rather down season in his walk year.  Cody Bellinger might be the best comp for Alonso with a .259 career batting average, having reached the high water mark of $27 million.

Now Alonso doesn’t field like Freeman nor have the longevity of some of the other expensive first baseman.  For his entire career he’s a .250 hitter who fans a lot but in his six seasons he averages about 40 HRs and about 110 RBIs per season.  That’s not exactly chicken feed.  Given the size of the owner’s bank account, you’d expect he would get a premium to stay in New York.  However, if you compare him to the other long term contracts, you would think his non-Mets reality is probably closer to $24 million per year or thereabouts. 

So the question is if indeed the Mets do not retain or outbid 29 other teams for his services then who is the 2025 first baseman?  The logical choice would be to move Mark Vientos and his improved but still inferior third base glove to a less challenging position.  He is showing 30+ home run power so it would be solid production though not quite at Alonso’s level.  Still, he would cost under $1 million vs. $25-30 million for the Mets to retain Alonso. 

After that the pickings get mighty slim.  Some folks have played occasional first base in their careers while others could be converted to that position, but no one with offensive chops seems to be in-house right now.  If the club retained J.D. Martinez for another year it’s possible he could be tried there but closing in on his very late 30s is a bit late to be picking up a brand new glove when his experience in the past has been in the outfield and as DH. 

The other issue is who plays 3B if Vientos moves across the diamond?  Brett Baty is having a very mediocre AAA season after having flubbed in the majors a multitude of times.  Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuna are possibilities as is supersub with a .280 career average Jose Iglesias.  Mauricio would provide 20+ home run power plus offer speed.  The others would be a steep drop off offensively from Vientos just as Vientos would not equal what Alonso routinely provides. 

No one is going to be happy except Scott Boras, Pete Alonso and their bankers when his new deal wherever it is comes to fruition.  For the Mets, it would appear they are somewhat ill equipped to cope with the loss yet at the same time if they’re looking to rein in the payroll, not paying $25 million or more per year for Alonso would help in that regard. 

Decisions, decisions...