Suppose it was the off-season and I told you that the Mets were about to sign a pitcher with a career winning pitcher with a 65-56 record, a 4.10 ERA and 8.3 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched? Right away your reaction was probably at best, “OK” but you weren’t reaching for party goods to celebrate the news. Then when you heard he was going to earn $14.5 million (though $2.5 million paid by his last team) and had an option for a $13.5 million deal in 2025, in a way you had to scratch your head a bit and thank Steve Cohen for having abnormally deep pockets.
In his best ever season he had a 3.59 ERA to accompany a winning record of 12-9, but that was back in 2018 and he hasn’t replicated that level since. Consequently, there is a reason he was still available for the taking late into the offseason, but apparently David Stearns saw something in the big lefthander Sean Manaea and he extended an offer which Manaea graciously accepted.
Well, all of the sudden Stearns and Manaea are doing their best to make one another look better than anyone anticipated. After his last two starts which were truly masterful, Manaea is sporting a 3.30 ERA with a record of 8-4 over his 22 starts with a very nice 1.18 WHIP having only given up 96 hits in 120 innings pitched. He’s struck out 122 and although his walks eclipsed the 3 per game level, he’s certainly turned it up several notches.
The flip side, of course, is it merely a hot streak that is not sustainable?
We have seen both pitchers and hitters who have woven extended periods of well above average performance only to revert to their norms not long afterwards.
Why this observation is important is how it impacts what an appropriate offer would be to keep Manaea on the Mets for 2025 and beyond.
As an example, former Met and former Oakland teammate of Manaea is righthander Chris Bassitt. He sports a 3.55 career ERA which is better and although he’s about 4 years older than Manaea, he’s earning a hefty $22.5 million in salary.
Given his youth and left handedness, Manaea would likely be looking for something similar, but his career stats suggest he might get a bit less until he can prove it’s not a fluke.
Say, for example, the Mets offered him three years at $19.5 million per year. That number would exceed what Bassitt got from the Mets but would keep his overall salary at $58.5 million for those three years keeping him here for his age 33, 34 and 35 seasons.
Luis Severino is playing out his one-year contract, Jose Quintana is a pending free agent, David Peterson is, well, David Peterson which is a cut above Tylor Megill, but not by that much margin.
The other two pitchers available next season if healthy are Kodai Senga and Christian Scott. So if the 2025 season started right now you would have just Senga, Scott and Peterson more-or-less penciled in, there is certainly room for Sean Manaea. A known commodity is sometimes preferable to an unknown one, as we have all seen hot additions flame out.
What number do you think Manaea worth on the open market right now?
Manaea is still auditioning for his 2025 deal, of course, but the 2025 job interview is going very well. Apparently he has eliminated his cutter in lieu of increased use of a sweeper, and his resulting ERA over his last ten starts? 2.25.
ReplyDeleteYes the interview is going VERY well for Sean.
About $21M sounds right.
ReplyDeleteMorning
ReplyDeleteI said this before
Championship teams feed on the weak, not lose over and over
I see the rotation only going south
They are blowing a once great opportunity to blow this up
Mack, I think the rotation as a whole can hold it together. Severino should have been traded and he has peaked, but two starters get injured, so…. What can you do? Manaea won’t continue to be Sandy Koufax, but if the fielders can’t catch and can’t throw, no pitcher can succeed.
DeleteMack, with a few exceptions, this franchise after 1969 could be renamed the New York Chokers.
ReplyDeleteOnce again, the Mets flop against an inferior team. It's like a broken record. They better get their crap together or they'll be out of the wild card race in no time
ReplyDeleteWhile Manaea is playing himself into a long term extension Severino is playing himself out of town at year's end. Next year's staff is a great mystery at this point.
ReplyDeleteSenga, Scott, Sproat, Peterson, Blackburn, Butto, add someone… it’s not too bad. Plus, I’d love to see Hamel and Vasil have a role, somewhere.
DeleteThis offseason will be interesting. Given the number of expiring deals, and the FO’s commitment to building from within, it’s difficult to see this season as something to build on, but more of a one-off with a roster that will necessarily look very different in 2025. If the FO is hoping to integrate guys like Gilbert, Mauricio, Jett Williams (man, those three injuries really set the org’s timeline back) and even possibly Baty, in ‘25/‘26, with a guy like Clifford possibly in the horizon as well, they’re unlikely to commit to long-term deals in a bunch of spots. That means a potential step backwards for the longer-term good. Which brings us to the pitching staff. Starting pitchers are in inherent injury risk, and so you’d rather not to commit to a long-term deal a year earlier than you need to, thus taking on both expense and risk for an additional (non-or-loosely contending) season. Better to wait until you feel like you have the other pieces in place. If that’s their thinking - which, while disappointing, would nevertheless be legit - I doubt they’ll go all-in on an ace until the following offseason. Re-signing Manaea for three years at $20mm per or so could be a possibility, or trading for a younger, controllable starter with upside, but I’d expect they’ll wait another year before making a big, TOR signing. The good news is that this FO seems capable of finding hidden gems and untapped potential, and then of course there’s Sproat, who is almost certain to join the staff, if not on opening day, then soon after. Next season will be interesting, but I don’t think that the FO is under any illusion that it won’t also be something of a ‘re-set and hope to be competitive’ season.
ReplyDeleteAdam, sadly the front office can’t keep its top hitting prospects healthy. Those injuries messed up the 2025 plan, indeed.
ReplyDeleteAdam, I don’t see this year as a waste. In fact, we got to see Baty and Vientos. Baty still has a 54% ground ball rate, and Vientos has regressed with the glove - somehow!!! But, the pitching is bubbling to the top, the Mendoza needs to get his rookie mistakes out of the way, and have to get the dead money over with.
ReplyDeleteOh, I didn’t mean that this year was a waste. Just that it would have really moved the timeline forward if Mauricio, Gilbert, and Williams got their year of development. I was also commenting on the fact that given the number of current guys on expiring deals, and how different the roster is likely to be, we’re can’t count on it being a direct step forward from this season. It may even be a step back as we try, at various points of the season at least, to integrate two or three rookie position players.
Delete