I actually started this as a comment to Mack’s Sunday
Morning Observations, but got rambling and decided to post it as a standalone
piece.
First, I love Mack's observations columns and do not generally have much quibble with his opinions, although I have one comment about the 2025 outfield as discussed. An outfield of Nimmo, Gilbert, and McNeil does not have enough power. I tend to agree with the thinking that Vientos can develop into a 40-50 HR guy, but other than that, Lindor and Alvarez (as currently constructed) have to provide most of the rest of the long ball options.
There is also a lack of team speed. Adding Gilbert will help and perhaps Mauricio can fill some of both the power and speed voids.
More on the 2025 roster construct later . .
First some pet peeves :
Speaking of lack of team speed (and going back to old fashioned winning baseball skills), last night's game was frustrating in two ways to me:
(1) Giving up the lead in the next half inning of the one you took always gets under my skin. That half-inning is the most important one of the game to play a clean one.
(2) Homers happen, I guess, but throwing strikes early in the count pays huge dividends.
(3) They really lost the game in the top of the 8th when Vientos led off with a double. Needing one run and not scoring with a runner on second and no outs is inexcusable. It was bad luck that the righthanded hitting catcher was up first - a groundout to the left side of the infield is not productive. A subsequent groundout (yay, to the right side to move the pinch-runner over) by last year's hitting champion didn't help much, and then another groundout to the left side essentially ended the game right there. Can't anybody bunt or hit a ball to the opposite field any more?????
Back to 2025 roster options
Speaking of Jeff McNeil and his non-run scoring out, I do not see him on the 2025 roster at all. I think he will become trade bait - what they can get will depend on how he finishes out 2024, but hopefully they could get some controllable starting pitching? Give Seattle a call? (I see that Gus and I agree on this one)
I do think they will field a young team in ’25, with Vientos, Mauricio, Gilbert and maybe Acuna. I am not as bullish on Luisangel for next year as other might be, but if they don’t start with him, he’ll be the first man up.
I would really like to see Brett Baty come back and establish himself as a major league hitter. I have been a fan since his Binghamton days and really hope he cements the third base role for several years.
I guess my preference would be to see Vientos in a DH role and have Pete Alonso back to play first base. I see that as a real possibility for two reasons: He is not doing himself any favors this year to get a huge payday and with that fact in mind, he could very well accept a qualifying offer. Obviously Boras does not like to do that, but unless he tears it up over the next two months, his value will be very much depressed from the early numbers that were being thrown around.
Where I see a lot of turn-over is on the hill – this is where the dollars will be spent. I will not even try to guess what the rotation will look like, although with any luck the name Senga will be part of it. It is possible that Brandon Sproat will earn a spot, although I am not convinced that he will not need another half year at AAA. He has moved quickly so far and deservedly so. I would think Christian Scott will be in the mix. Will they throw big bucks at guys like Burnes, Fried or Snell? My guess is they will be in the news associated with at least one of them.
Lastly, I’ll keep on my stuck record track – they need more speed on the bench. The ideal situation is to have a third catcher as well as a lefty hitter with some speed that can bunt! There are a lot of games out of the 162 game schedule where that need arises (last night being one).
A quick take on the trade deadline
Why is Ben Gamel still on the roster? How long are we going to wait for Marte and will Marte be the same player when he gets back? Couldn't they have found somebody that hits left handed that has some speed that would help in the late innings?
Is Paul Blackburn better than Tylor Megill? Maybe. At least Blackburn threw more than 5 innings in his first Mets start.
Bottom line: I think they needed more than a bottom of the rotation starter and some better bench help. The relievers they got were a little bit of headscratchers as well. I was good with Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek, but the last days acquisitions didn't make a lot of sense. Both Danny and Alex Young have been throwing very well of late. Why not see if they can do a little more. Also please put Megill in the bullpen as a 'long' man (3 innings max).
A great baseball game (unless you like lots of offense)
I'll close up by chatting about the great Rumble Ponies (AA) game I witnessed the other day with Mack's writes Paul and Mike S. The Ponies won 1-0 on a warm humid Thursday evening with some great pitching, great defense and one timely hit by Ryan Clifford. I love 1-0,well pitch ball games that are played in one hour and 57 minutes. There were even three hot air balloons floating by that hovered just past the right field wall for a while.
A couple defensive highlights to mention are two outstanding plays from shortstop Jeremiah Jackson (who I had never seen play the 6 position) – one a great 6-4-3 double play and the other that shows a 6-3 putout in the book but was anything but routine – fielded well behind 2nd base with a terrific throw to beat the runner. Second baseman Rowdy Jordan and catcher Drake Osborn combined on a heck of a play, throwing out a runner at home on a non-force play at the plate to save a run. Osborn also threw out a would-be stolen base at second to squelch another mini rally.
I read (or dreamed?) a pretty interesting note following the game (and unfortunately I cannot find the reference to link). The crux of the note was that the management/coaching team in Binghamton is really trying to emphasize throwing first strikes and has a “R22K” philosophy in place. “R22K” is ‘Rush to two strikes” – I took it that the idea is to really get the pitchers to try to a count with 2 strikes within the first three pitches. That makes the whole at-bat easier as he batter is now defensive and there are still three pitches to put him away with your best stuff. I really like that concept. I had never heard it before, but pitchers that cannot throw strikes drive me bonkers. Good stuff.
Until next time . . .
Question
ReplyDeleteDo you see any future on this team for the guy that primarily plays first in Syracuse and leads that league in RBIs this season?
Mack, I think Ritter could be a Met in 2025, but he has never been able to shrink his K rate much. Major league pitchers strike out lots more folks.
ReplyDeleteR 69, many fine points.
ReplyDeleteBaty, though? I make a point about him at 11 AM that points to my skepticism.
I see no major league path for Ritter. He is Vientos Version 2 with even less defensive chops and a higher K rate.
ReplyDeleteAA: I see no major league hitters forthcoming, except Parada. And he is iffy, and Clifford.
ReplyDeleteConsider how much their 2 best hitters, Schwartz and Thomas encountered turbulence in going from AAA. And almost every AA player is hitting .210 - .230. The projection to AAA and then to the majors is not promising for any but Parada and Clifford. And they are not sure things.
I see lots of major changes between now and opening day of 2025. The current squad has demonstrated when it works it's pretty impressive, but they are not consistent. It is a great wonder who will actually be here who can leave as a free agent at year's end. Whether or not they make the postseason depends on what happens in the future.
ReplyDeleteA gut punch game Sat. because we HAVE to win that game and was hoping CM would have brought in Diaz for a 4 out save after HB put 2 runners on and lets not forget he was a Marlin and that never works for us. Next years team will be the real test for DS as he has to almost totally revamp the the starting staff so what FA do we sign? Alvy is scaring me a bit as his offense hasn't been the same since before the AS break and exit velo is down so I'm hoping it's just that he's not fully healed from the injury fingers crossed. Also how much would it cost to QO Torrens?
ReplyDeleteAlso why not Sproat in Sept? If he pitches well in Cuse' he could help in the long or short BP role and lets face it no one has figured out what best for pitchers arms anyway so figuring he has just so many bullets use them when they count or is it just me?
ReplyDeleteTo begin with, Mack, stay safe from the hurricane. I was up all night and first I checked Debby, then I checked on the Mets 2025 as a follow up to yesterday.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Gary that Mendoza dropped the ball completely Saturday and took the Angels for granted. Bad job.
Here are the players under contract for 2025:
Acuna, Mauricio, Vientos, Baty, Torrens, Alvarez, Taylor, McNeil, Nimmo, Marte, Lindor. = 11
Orze, Young, Young, Gage, Hartwig, Nunez, Brazoban, Zuber, Scott, Butto, Garrett, Megill, Reid-Foley, Black urn, Peterson, Senga, Diaz = 16
So, that’s 27 players under contract and a very young team. If your infield is Vientos, McNeil, Lindor, Baty, Mauricio, Acuna, it’s set.
Outfield of Taylor, Nimmo, Marte, Gilbert, leaves room for one free agent. Do you trust Soto to play hard for 14 years?
My last point today is it is time to put McNeil between Martinez and Alonso. McNeil is the hottest hitter on the team and he is batting 8th, while these guys waste rallies and don’t get on base for the rest of the lineup. The entire lineup is slumping again, and speed doesn’t slump. They need more of it.
Oh, one more thing: just putting in minimum wage for guys and small raises for the Arb guys, I came to $171MM. That leaves $70MM, or plenty of money to use correctly. I would like to reset the cap next year and getting rid of Marte or McNeil (both?) would really make it happen. It, I want to win next year too, or at least try.
ReplyDeleteSproat has been spectacular all the way up. But before he gets promoted to the major leagues, he has to prove that he can dominate in AAA. Many prospect pitchers have excelled in A and AA ball only to get tripped up by the AAA robo umps. Names like Vasil, Hamel, and Tidwell that you were sure would be in the majors by September 2024 are now question marks in the minds of many. Why will Sproat fare better? I guess we will find out soon.
ReplyDeleteAs I rec, Spencer Strider basically went from AA to the Braves.
ReplyDeletePaul, I would recommend you look at the extreme quality of those Sproat strikeout pitches. It was jaw dropping. He and the other pitchers are not on the same talent level.
ReplyDeleteGus, thinking well out of the box. Hopefully Soto settles for 10 years, $500 million. Or 14 years, $550 million.
ReplyDeleteGus, I would like to see the Mets have Nick Morabito for after the trade deadline 2025. To get there, I’d like to see him out of Brooklyn ASAP. He’s had 14 hits and 2 walks in his last 9 games and has shaken off his slump. Get him to AA. Then, he needs to add some power this off-season. Not a lot, but more.
ReplyDeletePaul, the Mets can bring up Sproat next year and that would allow him to be a ROY candidate to maybe get them an extra draft pick. The Yankees are doing this with Dominguez and it’s important to think long term, where possible.
ReplyDeleteIf the rotation is Senga, Sproat, Scott, Butto, Peterson and Blackburn, that’s a good start towards a rotation that can carry a team. An ace would be ideal, but I want a Crochet or Sasaki ace, not a Burnes that has passed 30. The man may be great for several more years, but, JDG’s injuries after 30 have bummed me out on those types.
Gus, what about this re: Sproat?
ReplyDeleteA player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons): 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.