NY Mets Catcher Francisco Alvarez
DRAFTING
Edwin Diaz, without sticky fingers, hung a game winning, stomach-turning, season-altering slider-turned-homer to Jackson Merrill, 21 year old center fielder of the Padres.
Merrill was drafted 27th overall in 2021, the year of the Mets’ abortive pick of Kumar Rocker at # 10.
Obviously, one would think that had the Mets passed on Rocker, they would not have picked Merrill, who was chosen 17 picks later. But they would have hit the lottery if they had.
Merrill, just 21 years old, with 19 HRs, 75 RBIs, and a .290 average in this, his rookie campaign. Sensational.
Why do the Mets never get guys like this late in the first round?
One reason is you have to have an excellent record to draft late in round 1, which rarely occurs in Metsville.
But the Mets have had 4 hitter picks around 10 or 11 overall in the first round, over the past dozen years with any sort of high minors or MLB tack record:
Conforto, Smith, Baty, and Parada. Only Conforto seems to somewhat approach what Merrill looks like he will be in his career. And he was an early first rounder, not a late one.
Only Pete (64th overall) has proven to be an excellent offensive draft pick. And he made the majors when he was 3 years older than Merrill.
Pete Crow Armstrong is picking up steam in Chicago and may be another decent first rounder yet, and is still just 22.
Jared Kelenic (6th overall) is not great, with just 1 WAR in his career of 1,249 at bats thus far. A seeming Baty hitting clone. Or Dom Smith clone, take your pick.
If Kevin Parada had a catcher’s name that described his pro game so far, it would be Nick Swisher. If only he can someday hit like Nick who, of course, was not a catcher. He’ll make good major league $, though, if he can someday hit like John Buck, who was a catcher.
Buck, drafted not (of course) by the Mets, but as late as in the 7th round, nonetheless played in the majors for a long time and drove in 60 runs in 2013 for the Mets in 101 games.
I find myself criticizing Mets’ drafting a lot. It’s a quirk.
CATCHING
We love our Francisco.
But our energetic young catcher’s career totals are:
627 at bats, .219/.290/.418, 32 HRs, 92 RBIs. 15% caught stealing.
No doubt, Houston fans love their catcher, Yainer Diaz, too. Career?
833 at bats, .291/.317/.491, 39 HRs, 133 RBIs. 27% caught stealing.
Far superior to our Francisco.
- Would you trade Alvarez for Diaz, straight up?
I wondered if, when the Mets roster expands, one call-up could be Austin Allen, a catcher hitting .280 in AAA with pop. But he has only gunned down 5 of 71 base stealers in just 36 games, so I’d say no to that. And C Hayden Senger has been on the IL for 7 weeks.
The Mets just need Alvarez and Torrens to tear up September (and the last few days of August).
AJ EWING
Dude got accolades after snapping out of a hitting funk in St Lucie by going 15 for 29, with 3 HRs, 7 RBIs, and 6 walks in a brief stretch. His stock is rising, Patrick Ewing told me.
I mistyped Ewing as going 5 for 29. He actually went FIFTEEN for 29, and you add on 6 walks and that is a killer stretch for the 19 year old.
ReplyDeleteAnother correction. He just turned 20 this month. He was the 134th overall pick in 2023.
ReplyDeleteHow did you like that opposite field power on the grand slam in the bottom of the ninth the other day? It impressed me.
ReplyDeleteYep - his stock jumped way up in my book over the past 10 days.
DeleteTom,
ReplyDeleteThe Mets have had a history of poor drafts. In 1981 the Mets chose at #1 Terry Blocker. In that same round immediately following the Mets, other teams chose Matt Williams, Kevin McReynolds and Ron Darling. In the 12th round the Mets chose, but failed to sign, Roger Clements. Pick any year and you may see the same failures. We know the draft can be a crap shoot, but we need to improve our evaluations and do a much better job.
Much more crap than shoot over the years with this squad. Maybe the Stearns draft this year will finally represent a reset in that mostly abysmal long term draft record. It is SO important, budget-wise, to draft "Plus WAR" players.
DeletePoor drafts are our default setting pick any draft for examples. Now alot teams passed on Judge and we of course picked future HOFer Dom Smith and my question is who in the front office ends up paying for misstakes in drafting? I picture a long table with a dozen monkeys with darts to throw on a board with draft choices because were so bad at this why not. Another problem of course is rarely having GM's staying long enough so they go for the now move not the "lets build for the future" move. Hopefully changing with DS.
ReplyDeleteYou need a Judge to have a tickertape Parada down the Canyon of Heroes.
DeleteBen Gamel was picked up by Houston. So far, he is 6 for 15 with 2 RBIs. He had NO RBIs as a Met, but did have a .400 OBP and 9 runs scored in just 30 PAs. He belonged on this team playing, not DJ Beef Stew. Gamel has a .426 overall OBP in 47 MLB PAs in 2024. He was .314/.423/.538 in AAA. MISTAKE to have hung with Stewart so long, when Gamel was a lefty Iglesias hanging out in AAA.
ReplyDeleteThey need to draft college pitchers in the early rounds. Even if they don't make it, they make great trade chips.
ReplyDeleteDan, I agree. Mostly, though, they need to draft BETTER
ReplyDeleteI still hold great hope for Alvarez and would not trade him. There was a point made on last night's broadcast about watching Vientos and Alvarez in batting practice. Vientos was going the other way and making solid contact. Alvarez was pulling everything and popping them up. Alvy has shown the ability to be a good learner. This is something he needs to learn - to be a hitter first and a power hitter second. When he does, we will be very happy that he remained with the Mets.
ReplyDeleteAlvarez has huge power - he should emulate his “older brother” Vientos. Use all fields. Prosper. I don’t want him traded. I do want him to realize his shortcomings and to be as good or better than Yainer Diaz. Alvarez is underperforming. He’s been up over 700 times, I believe, at the MLB level, Adjust. He has an explosive bat. But explosive bats need to make explosive contact.
ReplyDelete