Reese Kaplan -- Which Free Agents Do You Try to Keep?

As the Mets finish up the 2024 season, whether or not they make the playoffs is the main story line to watch for now, but the accompanying one is who is a part of the team’s future when the season ends and free agency begins.  This territory is not new but over the final few weeks there are certainly some guys playing for their Mets lives before the calendar flips to October.  

For now we’ll bypass the guys who might be traded away with their contracts paid down by Steve Cohen and instead concentrate on those people potentially selling themselves to the highest bidder.

First Comes the Group for Offense

• First and foremost a decision must be made about Pete Alonso who picked a terrible time to have for him an off year.  It is possible he will approach 40 HRs and 100 RBIs by year’s end but the batting average is low, the strikeout tendency seems to be worsening and with runners in scoring position he is no longer the number one choice of hitters on the team you’d want in that situation.  Since they chose to keep him in July when they could have gotten a decent return, they now have just two choices left.  They can make him an extension offer to try to keep him a Met for life or they can extend a QO, let him walk away and take a draft pick in compensation.  For a guy likely looking to go north of $25 million per season for 6 years he’s an interesting conundrum.  Do you engage someone who is threatening at the plate to be the reincarnation of Dave Kingman or do you tip your cap and thank him for all he’s done and put those payroll dollars elsewhere?
• His buddy Harrison Bader has shown the brilliant defense for which he’s been lauded throughout his career but his hitting has been on a steady downhill towards his career level which suggests he is not worth another 8 figure salary.
• Jose Iglesias could always hit.  That’s evident by his career numbers.  He plays solid enough defense to be a good substitute and 2B, SS or 3B.  He earns next to nothing.  He’s in his mid 30s and struggled even to get a minor league deal this year.  If he’s transitioned to accepting his backup role then he’s most definitely a keeper with a big bump in salary.
• Aside from a few late inning home run heroics, Designated Hitter J.D. Martinez did not live up to his previous level of performance at the plate and cost $12 million.  The number to bring him back would likely decline slightly as he’s now 37 years old.  The best thing he’s done is mentor Mark Vientos and if he’s able to keep Vientos performing as he has this season then he might be welcome back.  Of course, the declining defensive skills of Starling Marte who is under contract for one more year could make him the next single season DH.
• D.J. Stewart is already gone from New York.  Thanks for your smile but not so much for what you did on the field.
• A similar situation faces the Mets with reserve outfielder Tyrone Taylor though he is not yet a free agent.  His current contract runs through the end of this year and he becomes arbitration eligible while not getting free agency until 2027.  He’s earning just over $2 million for his .237 average which is right where he’s always been with a .239 career batting average.  His defense has been solid and he occasionally has a hot day with the bat.  At that salary range he may or may not be worth keeping around though it could be on a year at a time basis.
• Former Yankee Luis Torrens wound up playing quite a bit more than expected between the injury earlier in the year to Francisco Alvarez and his season-long slump.  He is hitting .265 now after a bit of a slump, but that’s still 35 points higher than his career .231 average.  His defense is rock solid and it would appear to make sense to bring him back.  Right now he’s less expensive than Tyrone Taylor.
• Now here comes a hard decision to make.  A lot of it has to do with the choices for Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez.  The late season rental Jesse Winker has most definitely had some great offensive moments, but he is not a good fielder and as such might be in line for DH duties just as he served when Martinez went out on paternity leave.  For his career you would expect a season output in the range of .265 with 21 HRs and 71 RBIs if he played every day.  Those are nice numbers but not All Star material despite him having made it there once in his career.  He was earning just $2 million from the Nationals prior to the trade and is a free agent.  He’ll expect an increase but the numbers don’t suggest he’s going to fetch more than perhaps triple his current pay rate.  Is he worth it?  Maybe...maybe not.

Next We Consider the Many Starting Pitching Choices

• Jose Quintana is kind of a coin flip since you don’t know from start to start if the good Jose or the bad Jose will be taking the mound.  Considering what he’s earning now he’d have to take a very substantial cut to be even remotely considered, particularly as he enters the last few years of his career.
• I keep going back and forth on Luis Severino.  When he’s good he’s very good and during 2024 he seemed to adjust to no longer being a strikeout-focused pitcher.  He’s a third starter for clubs with good rotations and that’s where he would have been if Kodai Senga was healthy and Sean Manaea pitched as he did.  As a number two he’s not quite consistent enough, but he’s still young and will likely want a raise after this season. 
• If you ask nicely the fans might contribute to GoFundMe to help Tylor Megill purchase suitable luggage for his trip to his next team.  No options left mean he’s a Met on day one or not at all.  I opt for the latter.
• Paul Blackburn hasn’t pitched enough to declare him a guarantee to return.  Still, a guy with a career ERA on the wrong side of 4.50 is not someone for whom you would break the bank. 
• Saving the best for last, PLEASE sit down with Sean Manaea and work out an extension otherwise you will lose him when he exercises the mutual option he has in the two-year deal he signed.

 Finally We Need to Choose Relief Pitchers

• Reed Garrett is turning back into the solid reliever he was earlier in the year.  I’d certainly be open to keeping him around but would look very closely at his medical records.
• Phil Maton has a weird mutual $250K option to opt out.  If he does not exercise it, then the Mets must decide if he’s worth $7.5 million for 2025 or do they exercise it to try to negotiate a lower price for more than just the one additional year?
• Adam Ottavino has been more bad than good and is definitely in the twilight of his career.  He got less money for 2024 than he did for 2022 and 20223.  If he takes another drop in salary he is a known commodity but if you’re afraid to use him in leverage situations then what is the point?
• Ryne Stanek has shown some good days and some bad ones.  Overall his career has been mostly positive but his decision to stick around may be an expensive one for the Mets.
• Alex Young and Danny Young (no relation) are inexpensive and left handed.  I’d probably want them back given that the other quality lefty is gone as a free agent after missing most of 2024 for surgery. 
• Drew Smith is a free agent after a major medical problem.
• Sean Reid-Foley pitched very well on the rare number of days he was healthy.  There won’t be a lot of competition for him but you would probably have to consider him the 25th or 26th man on the roster due to ongoing physical issues.

David Stearns has quite a few decisions to make and local Uber drivers will be arriving at Citifield fairly often because you can’t keep them all.