Paul Articulates – Mets versus Dodgers: what to look for

It is such a privilege to still be writing about an active team in mid-October.  The Mets did a fabulous job this year from their front office to their coaching staff to their players.  Everyone rallied around a common objective and stayed together through adversity to achieve the goal of making a deep run in the playoffs.

Most of this was written before game 1, and it still applies despite the rough start.

To continue this deep run, there are several keys to getting past the Los Angeles juggernaut.

The starting pitchers must go deep.  Yes, Kodai Senga started game one and was struggling to find the strike zone.  But he was not expected to go deep in this game, and other than 1.1 innings from Reed Garrett it was pretty much on schedule.  The rest of the rotation needs to keep the bullpen rested.  We have seen several times when a reliever has to be run out there for an inning two or three games in a row that bad things happen.  When rested, this pen has had some very good moments including the limitation of a high-powered Phillies lineup in the last series.  If Manaea, Severino, and Quintana can get 6-7 good innings in the next three games, the Mets have a shot.

The offense must be productive.  In the 2024 playoffs so far, the Mets have out-hit the Dodgers.  The Mets have a team slash line of .241/.331/.384 compared to the Dodgers’ .228/.288/.401.  The Mets have scored 5.4 runs per game and the Dodgers have scored 4.8 runs per game.  Both teams faced very good pitching in their NLDS series, so the comparison seems valid despite a small sample size.  But this can’t be a series where the Mets’ offense goes to sleep for another game because the Dodgers have the ability to strike quickly with one swing of the bat.  Ohtani, Betts, Hernandez, Freeman, and Smith all have enough power to tilt the odds in a close game.  

The stars must shine.  Francisco Lindor has proven multiple times this season that he is a leader and a clutch player.  I have no doubt that he will have an excellent series.  The other stars on this team must come up big and that is not a certainty.  Pete Alonso had a couple of big homers recently and did less chasing of bad pitches – hopefully that is a sign that he is breaking out of a season-long brown-out.  He has to be patient and hit the ball hard to all fields.  Brandon Nimmo has to produce.  He was below his usual outstanding OBP in the regular season but has posted a .387 in the post-season.  With him on base and Pete hitting, the lineup looks very strong.  Mark Vientos has seemed immune to the post-season pressure, so I would expect this series to be the same.  Just stay within yourself Mark and good things will happen.  Normally, I would also say that JD Martinez needs to step up, but with guys like Winker and now McNeil on the roster there are plenty of options at DH.

In the dugout, new manager Carlos Mendoza will have to match wits with veteran manager Dave Roberts.  I think this is very likely, as Mendoza got the best of his rivals in the last two series.    There will always be decisions that we could question in the aftermath, but Mendoza’s track record has been great this season so in Carlos we trust.