Paul Articulates – Will the Yankees poach Pete?

There have been frequent discussions in the media about whether the Mets can retain Pete Alonso now that he has become a free agent.  These discussions have centered around what Pete (through his agent Scott Boras) will ask for in both dollars and length of contract.  Other discussions have been linked to the pursuit of Juan Soto, implying that money that could go towards retaining Alonso would be spent instead on sweetening the pot for Soto.

Here is another angle.  What if the New York Yankees go all out in pursuit of Pete Alonso?  Of course the Yankees are also trying to sign Soto, but they have a real advantage there.  The Yankees have had Soto during this World Series run and he has proven to fit well on their team.  The fans have certainly embraced him.  Yankee management have budgeted for Soto, and they are not afraid to put plenty of digits on a contract.  So if that money is already baked into the plan, and Soto by himself will not get the Yankees to another World Series, what will they be looking for?

Look no further than first base.  Anthony Rizzo has been a complete non-factor in the playoffs for the pinstripes.  Somehow he has compiled a .267 batting average but none of the hits contributed to anything of significance.  Zero RBI, a .300 slugging percentage, and two runs scored.  Defensively he has been below average.  The Yankees don’t accept that kind of mediocrity.  They need a replacement, and Pete Alonso looks like a great fit.

The short fences in Yankee stadium will boost Alonso’s already impressive power numbers.  Imagine 81 games per year in that enticing arena.  The city already loves Pete – imagine the jersey sales if he hits 50 homers next year.  Bronx Bombers takes on a new dimension with Judge, Alonso, and Stanton hitting 3-4-5.  The Yankees have a $17M club option next year on Rizzo.  Most estimates put Pete Alonso’s new deal in the $24M range for average annual value, so it is not outrageous to think that the Yankees would spend another $7M on putting a much better player at first.

Here is the upgrade comparison based upon 2024 regular season statistics:

Anthony Rizzo: 35 years old, .228/.301/.335 slash line , 81 OPS+, 0.2 WAR, -2 OAA

Pete Alonso: 29 years old, .240/.329/.459 slash line, 123 OPS+, 2.6 WAR, -9 OAA

I could put more statistics up here, but the point is already clear.  Pete Alonso would bring a significant performance upgrade to an already powerful lineup on the other side of the city, so expect Hal Steinbrenner to be extremely aggressive going after him.

That puts the pressure on the Mets leadership.  Yes, one can argue that Vientos could move over to first and still provide power there.  Yes, one can argue that Alonso is entering his 30’s next year and there is data showing that power hitters decline in their 30’s.  Yes, one can argue that despite improvement Pete is not a gold glove caliber first basement.  But Pete is a folk hero with Mets’ fans.  He brought excitement when the team was not winning.  Now that they are winning, it seems contrarian to walk away from that – even with some kind of analytical value analysis that puts his worth below his asking price.  

I don’t envy the tough decisions in the coming month that face the Mets’ front office.  All I can do is vote with my heart.  Keep Pete!!