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11/4/24

Paul Articulates – Fasten your seatbelt – free agent market discussions begin


It is an exciting time of the year for teams that have the financial wherewithal to capture talented free agents.  After the World Series ended, players eligible for free agency were officially on the market.  For the first five days, they could only be re-signed by their current teams.  Beginning this morning, it is open season and those free agents can negotiate and sign with any team.

The Mets, of course, are in excellent position to add talent.  They have now freed themselves of some heavy financial baggage, with their liabilities to Max Scherzer, James McCann, and Justin Verlander expiring.  They have some room to maneuver now in a market that has several desirable players.

Much has been written already about Juan Soto – he is clearly the top available free agent.  However, he is also most likely to attract an extended bidding war so although the Mets will play in that game, there is not likely a near term conclusion.  So let’s look at what should be done in the interim.

Starting pitching started 2024 with a whimper but ended with a bang.  Starters like Severino, Manaea, and Quintana upped their games in the late season and playoffs.  That said, I don’t expect the Mets to pursue Quintana for the future, and the rest of the rotation could certainly use a boost.  

While a priority should be put on re-signing Manaea, the Mets should also be in the market for one of the top available starters, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes.  I would add that Shane Bieber, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, and Freddy Peralta are also available.  There are also intriguing international pitchers such as Shota Imanaga in play.

With all these exciting possibilities to strengthen the Mets rotation, I must urge some caution – do not hold your breath.  None of these signings are going to happen this week, and probably not next week either.  There will be many offers exchanged, but the players (and their agents) do not want to be the first to go, because they want the demand to increase to sweeten the pot.  

The first one to be signed will set the bar on the market, and they all want it to be a high bar.  So this week, expect to see only less well-known signings of pitchers and position players to minor league deals with invites to spring training.  An example would be last week’s signing of minor league pitcher Dylan Covey.

Expect the traffic to be heavy in the Mets’ world, as David Stearns seems to be the master of signing depth to these minor contracts and finding a few gems in the rough.  These signings not only bring potential gems, but they also push the competition for our home-grown prospects.  The top prospects in our system had a down year in 2024 and really need to step up in 2025.

I am looking forward to the wild ride this off-season to see how the Mets’ roster takes shape.  Right now I have my seat belt buckled, but the 2025 pre-season roller coaster has just slowly started making its’ way up the first big hill.


9 comments:

  1. Today is the day...

    You can now sign free agents

    You must make a decision on options

    You must make a decision on QOs

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  2. My plan would be to go Soto-less.

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  3. With so many good players out there, I just can’t see much happening before early December as everyone wants to feel out the market.

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  4. People are going to lose their minds if we don't sign Soto. They did when Yamamoto went to the Dodgers and this will be worse. I should point out that Yamamoto only put up a 1.7WAR last year. I guess he was fresh for the playoffs because he missed so much time during the year.

    I want Soto. He would certainly create a gauntlet with Vientos/Lindor and hopefully Alonso. Would be a very deep lineup especially if Alvarez can get his power stroke back. That being said Im not sure I can wrap my head around the idea of paying 700m if it comes to that. Its going to be a wild ride.

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  5. This year's Yankees, as Sevi pointed out, were basically a "2-hitter team", with no one else productive until the late-season Stanton.

    They had one Ace pitcher, and others who were no better than the Mets' rotation.
    Yet they won their division and made it to Game 5 of the WS.

    The Dodgers set an amazing precedent last year by deferring so much of Ohtani's salary that they easily avoided the Luxury Tax penalties.

    It is the oenalties of the tax, not the cost of salaries, that hold Steve and David back.
    If a Soto deal could be structured like Ohtani's, all the negatives fade away.

    I have full confidence that David will improve the team that got within 2 games of the WS. I still want Soto, but if there's a better path to the top of the mountain, he'll find it.

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  6. Bring back Manaea, sign Burnes or Buehler, bring back the BP arms that performed well, add to it to make it a lock down BP. I am not in the Soto camp as I think that for 600M, you can get multiple players that would make the Mets a better team.

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  7. I don’t see $600MM in Soto’s future. I see an agent that will be cautious to not screw this up after last winter and be a bit more honest with his clients.

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  8. Ready for some mind-numbing spending

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  9. Outspend the Bombers. A laser focus beats bombers any day.

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