Reese Kaplan -- Can David Stearns Spin the Wheel for a Jackpot?

Back in 1962 when the Mets were born they set what was perceived to be the worst won/loss record in the history of the game.  Having played just 160 games the club managed somehow to win just 40 games and lose 120 of them. 

Last season the Chicago White Sox one-upped the Mets in a 162 game full season.  They managed to win one more game than did the Mets, finishing with 41, but also set the new standards for losing by having dropped one more than the record setting Mets ending the year with 121 losses to the game’s historical ledger.

So if you’re the White Sox, in addition to firing your manager and possibly your general manager, what do you need to do to regroup and avoid a parallel sequel come 2025?  Obviously you need to rebuild and in the worst way.  Unfortunately the fastest manner of changing course when all looks bad is to peddle away what looks good in the hopes of stockpiling top notch young talents who may soon blossom on the South Side of Chicago at Guaranteed Rate Field. 

In baseball’s 2024 the White Sox indeed had two top flight talents on display and rumor has it that the Mets are interested in pulling off a double barreled blockbuster of a trade.  Let’s take a closer look.

If you surveyed anyone associated with the Mets and asked what is their greatest current need, the answer would unanimously come back, “Starting pitching!”  It’s hard to argue with having lost Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana to free agency as well as Paul Blackburn to surgery.  A starting rotation right now includes Kodai Senga, David Peterson and Tylor Megill.  That’s it. 

In the Windy City former reliever turned starter Garrett Crochet put together an All Star level season during all of that losing.  Crochet actually first touched the majors in 2020 the same year he was drafted.  Then the 100 mph hurler spent all of 2021 in the White Sox pen, appearing in 54.1 innings with just a 2.82 ERA to accompany 65 strikeouts.  Everyone in Chicago expected great things of the young man.

Unfortunately, as it seems to be the standard way with pitchers, he underwent Tommy John Surgery in 2022 missing that entire season and most of 2023 except for 13 relief appearances towards the end. 

In 2024 the ChiSox decided to convert the 25 year old Crochet to a starting pitcher and had him assigned as their opening day arm.  Crochet took took starting pitching like he did relieving, and by year’s end he made the standard 32 starts without missing time due to injury.  His 6-12 record won’t set your brain on fire, but if you look a little closer you will see the big southpaw struck out over 200 in less than 150 IP, he fanned them at a rate close to 13 per 9 innings yet yielded just 2 walks over that same interval of time.  His WHIP was a gorgeous 1.068.  

In addition to the pitching stats, bear in mind he’s not even arbitration eligible and played for a salary of just $800K this past season. He is not eligible to become a free agent until 2027.  The White Sox know that with arbitration his salary will jump significantly for 2025 and 2026.  Consequently, cashing in now enables them to avoid this financial obligation and to restock their roster with fresh and talented faces.

The other big hole the Mets need to fill in 2025 is center field.  Last season Harrison Bader patrolled it with his usual best-of-the-best skill, but his bat which started off a bit better than expected waned significantly over the course of the season.  In a way it was like trotting out a killer shortstop knowing how much his defense is worth to the likelihood of winning games despite how little he does with the bat.  He elected free agency.

When the slump got so bad that he needed to be removed from the lineup regularly, the Mets then turned to a similarly better-than-expected bat in Tyrone Taylor whose defense was good enough to man center field professionally.  Unfortunately, he went into a similar offensive tailspin and now has had two surgeries already this off season from which he needs to recover fully to attain his lifelong .241 batting average.

The White Sox also happen to have a center fielder with significant power who has already headed towards the upper echelon in salary by the name of Luis Robert, Jr.  The  26 year old is just a year removed from his 2023 Silver Slugger season in which he hit 38 home runs, drove in 80 rungs and batter .264.  Oh, did I forget to mention the man has a Gold Glove on his shelf as well?

2024 was not kind of Robert, Jr.  He hit just .224 with 14 HRs and 38 RBIs in 424 ABs.  For that the White Sox paid the man $12.5 million.  His 2025 season is at $15 million and then there are a pair of options for 2026 and 2027 at $20 million per season.  There are buyouts of $2 million per year possible each of those years.  So acquiring Robert, Jr. would cost the Mets as little as $19 million for one year exercising both clauses or as much as $55 million if they kept him for the duration.  For an average annual salary of $18.3 million suggests if he can approach what he did in 2023, that’s a bargain.

So what would it take to acquire both of these players from Chicago?  Well, the price isn’t quite as unbearable as many would have you believe.  Just as the Mets sold off future Hall of Famers for a passel of prospects in 2023, they may reverse that course for 2025.  Not that it would be insignificant, but the club would likely pony up Jett Williams, Luisangel Acuna, one of Ryan Clifford or Drew Gilbert, and another position player like Brett Baty.  

So think about that price for a minute.  Williams is not yet ready for the majors and his primary position is blocked by Lindor.  Acuna may be ready but struggled in AAA.  The other outfielders are a year or two away.  Baty is likely the only one who would be in the White Sox Opening Day lineup and he’s blocked by Mark Vientos.  

While it’s not chicken feed to acquire these young players from the Cubs’ crosstown rivals, the price doesn’t seem outrageous. 

What do you all think?