HOW HIGH A TRAJECTORY IS PROJECTED FOR 2025 METS HITTERS?
FanGraphs (FG)?
It does interesting 2025 projections of MLB and high minors players.
What (as of November 20) do the Fan Graphers think Mets fans can expect in 2025 from Mets hitters?
They usually have two projections - Steamers and FanGraphs (FGDC) - some times the two diverge, and when they do, the figures below represent an average of the two:
Jose Siri? 370 PAs, .206/.265/.383. 14 HRs, 40 RBIs, 12 steals. Doubtful he will get up that much as a back up OF who has strong D, but poor offense.
Drew Gilbert? FG has 104 PAs, .224/.296/.364, 3 HRs, 10 RBIs, 2 steals.
Jett Williams? FG pegs him for just 14 PAs in 2025 in the big leagues.
Both Gilbert and Jett's projected MLB totals would have likely been much higher had they not been injured.
Ronny Mauricio? 264 PAs, .249/.297/.411, 9 HRs, 30 RBIs.
LuisAngel Acuna? 452 PAs, .250/.296/.365, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 21 SB. Not shabby.
Mark Vientos? 664 PAs, .243/.311/.459, 33 HRs, 93 RBIs. I'll take it.
Francisco Alvarez? 503 PAs, .236/.315/.445, 23 HRs, 66 RBIs. I'll take it.
Jeff McNeil? 622 ABs, 32 2Bs, 12 HRs, 72 RBIs, .271/.332/.397. If he stays healthy, perhaps. For that level of production, he would be UNDERpaid in 2025.
Brandon Nimmo? 638 PAs, .252/.346/.417, 19 HRs, 72 RBIs. I'll take that.
Starling Marte? 554 PAs, .261/.318/.394, 21 SBs, 13 HRs, 60 RBIs. I'll take it.
Tyrone Taylor? 472 PAs, 16 HR, 54 RBIs, .236/.290/.407. I'll take that.
Francisco Lindor? 687 PAs, 28 HRs, 79 RBIs, .256/.332/.447, 25 steals. Feels a little understated.
Pete Alonso? 668 PAs, .242/.328/.473, 36 HRs, 100 RBIs. Hard to see that walk out the door.
Before I go:
FG re: Juan Soto? 686 PAs, .284/.418/.536, 35 HRs, 97 RBIs, 110 runs.
Tom Turkey's projections were unavailable, but he can sure gobble, gobble, gobble up grounders. His manager is an old gizzard, I hear.
Although this fine article was intended to be just about hitters, I will look at FG projections for 2025 for two aspiring Mets minors pitchers...
Brandon Sproat? 3-5, 4.17, 13 starts, 74 IP, 7.9 Ks/9 IP.
Jonah Tong? 2-2, 4.29, 5 starts, 28 IP, 8.3 Ks/9 IP.
So they project that both of these pitchers, will reach the majors and total 102 decent innings between them.
- The FanGraphs projections for these two seem reasonable to me.
SOTO SWEEPSTAKES HEATING UP
Yankees just upped their offer. A Pot o'Gold, and some Lucky Charms.
I have no idea how much $, but no doubt it's the stuff of Brinks trucks.
Red Sox?
I read this: "Boston tried to sell Soto on Fenway being the perfect ballpark for him and is said to have had a productive meeting as well."
I guess selling a park as being perfect for a HOF-bound hitter is important, huh? Who woulda thunk it? Anyway...
HAPPY THANKSGIVING - IN EVERYTHING, GIVE THANKS!
AND DON'T GET INTO AN ARGUMENT WITH YOUR AUNT DAISY
AND CLUNK HER WITH A DRUMSTICK! HER LEFT HOOK IS PURE TYSON.
You can project your comments on these projections.
Your line score for the final inning of your Thanksgiving celebration should be NO RUNS, 2 DRUMSTICKS, NO ERRORS, NO FOOD LEFT ON PLATE.
ReplyDeleteTom, Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. One of the things I am thankful for today is to wake up in the morning and go to Mack’s Mets to see what is written to start my day. You do some heavy lifting and the shear joy you bring us with your enthusiasm is hard to put into words. You, Reese, Mack, Ray, Remember (don’t know his real name), and whoever else contributes keeps us a little distracted from our real world and that helps the day be shorter.
ReplyDeleteYour info on the FanGraphs is interesting, and although in the past I would scoff at their attempts to predict the future, I realize that they usually are in the neighborhood. Last night, I found myself wondering how this passed season would have been if Lindor didn’t have his red cape on every night and wondered if he could do it again this year. I can’t blame the guy if he can’t and I would thank him for trying because we see how hard it can be to instill your will night after night. It would be nice if players like Nimmo can finally step up their game and also realize that they got their contract to get on base often and stop swinging for the downs.
I will take the OVER on Alvarez’s production, and even Alonso’s. I keep cheering for Soto to stay in the AL East and not screw up our annual balance sheet. When Stearns was hired, he talked about “financial flexibility”. Is he going to kick it away now?
Did Soto ever have a double digit WAR year? Betts has, Judge has, Trout has had two of them. Soto only had this year because Judge was behind him. Let him go! Withdraw your offer and get Sasaki and Crochet, and another young ace! Build up the rotation of 2015 with Wheeler, Harvey, Matz, DeGrom, and Syndergaard all over again, while getting rid of Dudas, Tejadas, and left fielders playing CF, and watch how good this team can be!
Gus, thanks. Baseball has many fascinations, and I am far from an expert on “all things baseball”, but I just try to say what I think needs to be said and add some humor along the way.
ReplyDeleteI think your plan is good, but Paul developed some sort of list showing that having the MVP on your team correlates with the MVP’s team being in the World Series (win or lose) HALF THE YEARS SINCE THE METS APPEARED IN 1962. So I understand the fixation with Juan Soto, who in many years other than 2024 would have won the MVP. Getting the Big Dude is great for box office, viewership, concessions, playoff revenues, and franchise value….as long as the long term stud doesn’t get hurt. We sometimes forget superstars can have Achilles heels.
If we don’t get Soto and the Yankees do, though, it will cripple their budget.
And many other years Lindor would have been MVP except for that alien from another planet with a Red Sun that was born in Japan and is ridiculously talented…
DeleteThe MVP to World Series correlation is an interesting study. It is hard to tell what is cause or effect. Although I suspect that MVP seasons drive winning teams, MVP awards are almost always given out to players on the teams that won. A research project to see how many players had MVP seasons (as good or better than the real MVP winner) that did not take home the hardware.
DeleteOne other angle on this topic is that it is very difficult for any one player to have outstanding results (MVP worthy) without a solid supporting cast around him. Listen to all the chatter about Soto and Judge having the year that each did in 2024 because of the other one simply being in front of or behind him in the lineup. Without Judge hitting behind him, Soto would have walked a lot more and not hit as many homers and certainly would not have scored as many runs. With a lesser hitter than Soto ahead of him, Judge would not have seen as many good pitches.
This is my basic argument for signing both Soto and Alonso. Make that line-up tough throughout and you'll not only win, but one of Lindor, Soto, Alonso, Vientos, Alvarez, or even Nimmo or McNeil could come up with the Mets first MVP award.
Mike Schmidt won MVP for the last place Phillies and Steve Carlton won 27 games for a team that won 50-something. Oh, the tortures of being an organization of half-fixes all these years.
DeleteAnd, yes, we cannot forget that Lindor could fall short of repeating the high level of his last two seasons. If so, who will pick up the slack? Which is why I want Vientos to consciously try to cut his Ks a lot. When ball meets bat, there is potential for 45 HR 120 RBI damage.
ReplyDeleteGus, it is also why I was so perturbed with the length of injuries to Gilbert and Jett. Gilbert’s injury was avoidable, I don’t know about Jett’s. But neither will be ready to be Mets on opening day 2025. Had they played full, healthy campaigns in 2024, both might well be ready. Their minimum wage salaries would have bode well for the team’s overall salary. Mauricio too. Learn to hit, that is what is paramount, and otherwise avoid injuries in the minors to substantially delay your progress.
ReplyDeleteWe can’t help that, let it go. I have often felt that it may have been a blessing to have them get injured so other teams won’t take them in a trade, and the Mets would keep them. After all, Mauricio’s injury helped the Mets solve the Baty/Vientos problem that would not have been solved had Mauricio been given first dibs.
DeleteGood morning, all...Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. Mack, hope you are recovering well.
ReplyDeleteGus, as always it seems like we share a brain. As I have said many times....please, please, please let the Yankees overpay for 15 years. We have so many holes we need to fill and signing him will stop us from signing the type of pitching we need.
Tom, great recap as usual. I have one question. When did it become acceptable for good players to hit .250 or below. The projections show 5 of our players hitting well below .250. The stats on Taylor are a pipedream. If Nimmo, Vientos, Lindor, Alonso, Alverez hit at that level we will be in serious trouble. Even Soto's stats are ridiculously low. That stat line they stated for 50M??? For 15 years...Yikes. I'll Pass.
Some ramblings from Remember this Thanksgiving morning:
ReplyDelete- Gotta love Tom's comment about Pete "hard to see that walk away". That is what I have been saying for the last month and a half. This projection looks pretty close - perhaps a bit low if he gets a comfortable situation and doesn't have to answer contract questions every day. They need to re-sign that stat sheet.
- Like Gus, I got the over on Alvarez.
- I got the under on Marte.
- It is hard to believe that Marte and Taylor together will get over 1000 plate appearances - especially if McNeil, Acuna, and Mauricio combine for over 1300.
- I don't see Acuna getting 450 plate appearances and getting on base less than 30% of the time. If his OBP remains in the 200s, he will start losing playing time.
- Back to Alvarez, I will take the bet that his stat sheet will slightly over shadow Vientos for the full year.
Have a great Thanksgiving!
I agree with Joe P. Those projections don't add up to anything close to a championship roster. Only 1 player higher than .261, and his name is McNeil?? And the aging/declining Marte is 2nd, at 261?
ReplyDeleteNothing there to be thankful for, but I AM thankful for Macks Mets, and you and the other writers here, who give me something to look forward to each morning.
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Starting to feel the same way about Alonso...unless he holds tight on a ridiculous contract, I would resign him.
ReplyDeleteMarte is a sunk cost this year. Unless you pay half his salary, he is untradable. Pencil him in for 100 starts and play McNeil the other 62.
Alverez is another problem to me. Unless he starts hitting like a professional hitter his .220 average is unacceptable to me. They touted him to be a complete hitter in the minors but so far he looks like a buffoon at the plate winging for a HR every time.
Acuna and Mauricio will be back in the minors if they have an OBP below .300. I'm really hoping for a higher average from Vientos and Lindor.
Now just go out and sign 2 SP and 2 GOOD RELIEVERS.
Happy Thanksgiving to all. After 63 years of Mets baseball I'm tired and really want a sustainable winner and I'm thrilled to have an owner and FO I can be happy about. In our history we have only won 2 WS and as good as the 86' team was it took 2 miracles in the postseason for that to happen so what does it all mean? Build a team strong enough to be in the playoffs regularly but of course ask the Bravos how that worked out when they made the playoffs 14 times in 15 years but won only 1 WS. Moral of the story is just get into the playoffs and anything can happen and that also means exciting regular seasons or to quote Fred Wilpon "meaningful games in Sept." as thats all we really can reasonably expect. So Lets go Mets you have to be more exciting than my Jets and Giants ugh.
ReplyDeleteAmen to you Gary. And a happy Thanksgiving to all.
ReplyDeleteGreat points. Joe P, I think averages have dropped 1) because arms throw harder, and more trick pitches like sweepers, and 2) many more swing for the fences, because power hitter make more $$…higher HRs, lower average.
ReplyDelete