Genesis in 2022 (source: Wiki)
I have heard many a preacher during a message say, "Let's Open to the Book of Genesis".
Genesis means "origin or beginning."
Well, this is baseball, so what beginning are the Mets about to embark on with newly acquired Genesis Cabrera?
First of all, though signed to a minor league deal, one would speculate that as a 6'2" lefty reliever, he will be used by the Mets in 2025.
In 2024 with the Blue Jays, he was in 69 games, threw 63 IP, and had a 3.69 ERA. Sounds great, right?
Two "buts":
But, why then, would Toronto let him go?
But what might be points of concern regarding Cabrera?
He only fanned 50 of 271 batters faced in 2024, while walking 29. Not great, there.
His FIP, as listed by Baseball Reference, was 5.13. That's high.
He allowed 39 inherited runners to score, the 16th highest total for pitchers in 2024, based on stats posted by CBS Sports. Reed Garrett, who seemed to allow a lot of inherited runners to score, actually did, allowing 34; Cabrera faced about 10% more batters, so they were about equally not good in that regard. The worst in all of baseball was TJ McFarland, as a point of reference - he faced 235 batters and allowed a whopping 66 inherited runners to score.
Had Genesis Cabrera been in the NL, he would have been tied at 2nd worst in IRS.
Fangraphs, though, has him projected at 50 innings in 2025, with a 4.08 ERA (worse) BUT a FIP of 4.39 (nearly a run better). And he gave up 10 HRs in those 63 innings, not terrible but not great, either.
Interestingly, his 2024 ERA against .500+ teams was 3.32 but just 4.09 against below .500 teams.
He also gave up 6 earned runs in his first 5 innings of 2024, and 4 earned runs in 1.2 IP the last week of the season. after those 6 innings, his ERA for the 5 1/2 months excluding the first and last week of the season was a fine 2.41. So, give him the first and last week off and you're doing yourself a favor? Maybe. Perhaps.
Lastly, his WHIP was 1.46 in 2024, which is on the high side.
Toronto? Maybe they let him go because his anticipated arbitration $$ made his retention calculus unfavorable to the Blue Jays. He is a free agent in 2026.
All things being equal, my takeaway is he was a "cheap get" for the Mets and should be helpful in 2025 when used prudently.
Pitching to contact is an art. If he refines that art, he may be valuable as someone with a "different look" to come out of the pen. If his walk rate is that low, then his WHIP is dominated by hits, and with some refinement of his pitches in the pitching lab he can induce weaker contact turning hits into outs. I say give him a shot.
ReplyDeletePaul, with the Mets' shortage of healthy arms, I cannot imagine this Genesis dude not getting considerable pen time in 2025. I did read he tops out around 96, so that takes him out of the junk baller category. I am guessing we see a lot of him in 2025.
ReplyDeleteWith the minor league deal, he has the opportunity to EARN a spot in Flushing. If he doesn't, he will remain upstate or be released. Stearns has shown he will not keep losers, even if signed to ML deals.
ReplyDeleteAnyone remember Joey Wendle?