Before the 2024 season, the Mets had an opportunity to extend the contract of Pete Alonso while he was still under team control. Pete and his agent Scott Boras rejected an offer for a 7 year, $158M extension that would have kept Pete in Orange and Blue for the rest of his baseball career. At that point, Pete had most of the season in front of him, and with his productive history at the plate, it seemed like a savvy business move.
As we all know, Pete played out the season, but had a down year, which did not help his negotiating position as a free agent. His 2024 season average was nine points under his career average, his home run production was the lowest since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and his slugging percentage was a full 55 points below career average. This created concern among many that had followed the statistical decline of several power hitting first basemen in their 30’s. Was Pete on the decline? Should he really get a long term contract with an AAV like Freddy Freeman ($27M) or Matt Olson ($22M)?
The leverage pendulum seemed to be swinging back the other way. But wait, this is the era of unbridled spending for free agents. Teams routinely overpay on long term contracts for players that can give them a big boost on the front end. Surely someone like Pete Alonso could give any team a boost in the next couple years.
Pete’s market seemed to still be alive, as there were teams that desperately wanted a power bat manning the first base bag. The cross-town Yankees were ready to turn the corner from Anthony Rizzo, the Astros seemed to be thinking the same about Jose Abreu. The Red Sox tried four first basemen in 2024, and finally played the last half of the season with old friend Dominic Smith.
Recently, the free agent market for first basemen began to move. The Astros signed Christian Walker to a three year deal with a $20M AAV. The Yankees added both Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt (1-year, $12.5M). Josh Naylor (1yr/$6.5M) went from the Guardians to the Diamondbacks to fill Walker’s slot and then Carlos Santana (1yr/$12M) went to Cleveland. Now the Nationals got Nathaniel Lowe (2 seasons of team control remain - 2025 at $7.5M) in a trade with Texas. So it seems that many of the teams with a void at first base have found short term help.
Where does that put Alonso and his leverage for a multi-year contract with a high 20’s AAV? There still appear to be three teams besides the Mets that would benefit by spending for Alonso. The Sox, the Mariners, and the Marlins could all use first base help. Of the three, only Boston has the financial might to command the big multi-year deal. So that pits the Boston Red Sox against the New York Mets to convince Pete Alonso to sign. Certainly the Mets would have the upper hand, given Pete’s affinity for New York, his experience with the clubhouse, and the promise of a very competitive team for years to come. The only play that Boston has is money. And with the aforementioned risk of decline, would they be willing to outspend Steve Cohen for one player when they need much more than that to compete in the AL East?
My money is on Steve to put his money on Pete. I think Alonso stays in New York, but not for 7 years at $180-$200M because Alonso no longer has the upper hand in this negotiation. It may be shorter and a lower AAV than Freeman but it will be longer and higher AAV than Walker. I would love to hear your opinion.
4 -5 years 100-125 million
ReplyDelete4 years, $100 million. Mutual opt out after 2 years. Concerned about rising Ks for Pete.
ReplyDelete5 125 or 4 110
ReplyDeleteIf they sign him, my thoughts are more along the lines of Tom's thought. Maybe a three year deal along what Bellinger got last year with the Cubs but with mutual opt-outs instead of just a player opt-out and lower AAV.
ReplyDeleteThere are the third baseman available through free agency and through trade that I believe are affecting Alonso as well. With all the other moves made, it is telling me that the other teams are afraid of a mutli-year deal for Alonso or the ask is still too high.
I'm with the rest of you guys. 4/100 with 5th year option (maybe). Opt out after 2 years. I can live with. that I would also put a time limit on the offer because if he doesn't take it they have to make other plans. I would then offer Bregman the same deal.
ReplyDeleteTom, I am really troubled about his K rate also.
I have a similar article with a twist queued up for tomorrow at 6:00 a.m. - this discussion is not over yet! :-)
ReplyDeleteBoston does havethe Green Monster that Pete might drool at.
ReplyDeleteOne other team that hasn't been mentioned much in the media that has some money to spend and is on the way up is Detroit. They made the playoffs this year with a late push, but are short a masher bat.
ReplyDeleteI (and all of MLB, apparently), don't think Pete's value matches up with what he is potentially asking for (which has more then the offer he turned down this past year, or he would have taken it).
ReplyDeletePete's homegrown, has a history with the Mets and NYC and seems like a decent chap. However, his contract will be for what he will provide moving forward, not for what he has done previously. As hard as it may be, the emotional aspect needs to be taken out of the equation and I am confident David Stearns will do exactly that.
Giving him anything close to what Freddie Freeman, or Matt Olson received is lunacy (they are much better players than Pete). As someone previously said on this site, Pete is a modern day Dave Kingman, or a one trick pony (power). It's has value, but his flaws (lack of speed, subpar defensive chops, low BA/OBP and tons of K's) should drag his value down. Not to mention he is hitting his 30's, so his best seasons have likely already occurred.
I would prefer a shorter/cheaper deal for a player who is more consistent and can play excellent defense (Walker).....unfortunately, that ship sailed with recent transactions.
So, why not upgrade third base instead and let Vientos move over to a less demanding defensive position? If we are ready to hand out 25 million per year for a longer term (as suggested above), I'd rather have Bregman at third base, who is a superior player to Pete in every way (except raw power, perhaps). IF that is too rich, I'd trade for the last three years of Arenado's contract before I gave Pete a mega deal.
Trade Tampa for Yandi & wait for Vlad or Godzilla.
ReplyDeleteI think that Pete’s market has basically collapsed. Maaaaayyybe the Sox make him an offer, but I would be shocked if anyone offered more than 4 years, or more than around $20-22 mil per. And even getting there might mean accepting a team opt-out/buy-out after year 2. Stearns knows what he’s doing, and he won’t be sentimental about it. Guessing that by the time Boras circles back around to them, the Mets’ offer will be something like 3/$70 or 4/$90 with a buy-out.
ReplyDeleteAdam, could be. Pete passing on an extension last year may cost him a lot.
ReplyDelete