While the Mets continue apparently to evaluate making major league deals rather than actually executing them, it comes to mind that the number of prospective starting pitchers available in free agency is starting to dwindle unless you’re willing to accept hurlers with less-than-stellar numbers. Let’s take a look at five viable choices still out there and try to rank them.
Think back to the time Williams spent on the Mets as a long reliever, spot starter and overall quality pitcher. He wanted to transition to starting full time. The then management team here did not think much of that idea and let him walk.
His first year with the Nationals was not good as his ERA ballooned to over 5.00. Then he missed 99 games to start the 2024 season before returning and he was lights out as a starting pitcher for the 13 games he threw for the season.
He finished with a 6-1 record, a 2.03 ERA, a WHIP just a hair over 1.000 and a nearly 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. His ending salary with the Nationals was $7 million and while he’ll look for an increase, given the poor first year and long injury in the second he’s not going to get a big one. He could be a hidden gem among the much more expensive mediocre options more frequently cited..
The Mets did give a QO to Manaea based upon his second half dominance. As such, he might find competition for his services a bit less than it might otherwise be. Now it’s easy for the Mets to engage Manaea about returning, but he’ll be looking for 3-4 years at a number in excess of the $21+ million that a QO would pay him.
Think if it went 4 years it would approach $100 million. For a guy who has a career ERA of 4.00, that’s a pretty big chunk of change. Yes, he has done work in New York and is left handed. Those attributes cannot be ignored. Still, when you look at what the cost, age and results have been, I stand by the ranking of Flaherty ahead of Manaea.
He’s going to cost a pretty penny having been spectacular with the Detroit Tigers last year and then appearing on the national stage in the World Series. His ending salary for the Dodgers was $14 million and he did not get a QO as he was traded mid year which obviates the ability for his ending team to offer one.
When you look at his numbers which included a 3.17 ERA in 2024 and a career number of 3.63 suggests he will be in high demand for teams that don’t want to lock into a $200 million deal as they might if they chose someone else. His control is quite good and he’s definitely worth consideration.
When the off season began everyone assumed that the Cy Young caliber Burnes who had a long history with David Stearns was a foregone conclusion. Part of that belief also was tied to the feeling that for all good intentions the Mets would lose out on Juan Soto to the Yankees, Dodgers or one of the other contenders for his services. Well, stranger things sometimes happen and the Mets got their big bat, but now find themselves still in the need of a major starting pitching arm.
You can’t argue with Burnes’ ability and at age where he clearly has 6 more years of expected quality innings. Right now the 30 year old has a career record of 60-36 with a 3.19 ERA, a WHIP just over 1.000 and fantastic control. He’s been on four straight All Star teams and been in the top 8 of Cy Young Award voting 5 times including cinching it in 2021.
The question now is whether or not the Mets will approach $34 million per year for 6 years (total of $204 million) after committing a minimum of $765 million to Soto. In addition, they would lose another draft pick. I am predicting a pass here though having a healthy and reliable Jacob deGrom replacement would be great to have.
Yes, I know he’s never thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues and he’s only eligible for a minor league deal right now, but look at the numbers and the cost. He is a crystal clear number one option. How good has the 23 year old Japanese hurler been? In 4 years he’s gone 30-15 with a 2.02 ERA, a WHIP of 0.883 and is approaching a 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
He may only want to sign a short term deal in order to cash in big time when it expires, but right now he will be far more affordable than the other options on this list and is showing performance numbers superior to all of them.
Word has filtered out from his agent that he’s very impressed with Jeremy Hefner and snagging him after missing out on many other Asian players of note would be a sensational and shrewd complement to the Juan Soto deal. No compensation, low cost and electric stuff in a 23 year old. He's clearly the number one pick.
Sean Manaea looks great - so did Bob Ojeda in 1986, but then Ojeda went just 50-49 the rest of his career. I fear a long contract to an older Ojeda. Mickey Lolich is another example of a lefty who was great but lost steam.
ReplyDeleteTrevor Williams? Worth a consideration. Corbin Burnes? A fine choice, but I do not know how you reconcile that with a long term contract for a pitcher. Pitchers tend to crumble.
Of course, if we can get Sasaki, do it.
ReplyDeletePart of me is wondering if the AAAA level pitchers like Blackburn, Megill and Canning are here to allow the Mets to make a trade and not be left with a bare cupboard.
ReplyDeleteThere is always Justin Verlander
ReplyDeleteand I'll beat Bill M. to it . .Jose Quintana would still be a decent fit
ReplyDeleteThe rest of the pre-season will no doubt be intriguing. We will be surprised, asi was with the Canning signing.
ReplyDeleteI will ask this question for anyone. Can the Mets llegally sign Sasaki with International money at say $500,000 and a verbal agreement that they will give him a major league contract for millions in 2026? This would allow them to sign their International players they have already planned to sign and still get Sasaki. Is that possible? Is that the Dodgers way of a deferred contact for their players?
ReplyDeleteDJ, you ask a question that I also broached as we were both writing together.
DeleteYou aren’t allowed to make any deals in advance. But, I ask you.
Since he wasn’t posted yet and Stearns was in Japan in September, they could talk about anything. If you were Sasaki ans I said to you: “If you get posted, come sign with us for a small amount so we can sign other guys and then we will give you the same deal we offered Yamamoto and we will have endorsements for you lined up immediately. Also, we will give your Japanese team an advertisement package from our Japanese subsidiary that will more than make up for the money they are losing by posting you early”, would he get offended? I fear he would. It’s a big deal to a player to share a stage and he wants the limelight and has said it openly.
SNY last night dropped that the Mets met yesterday with Sasaki. The Yankees have let it be known that they will meet with him next week. I believe the Soto deal gives the Mets an edge, and without Soto, he goes to the Yankees.
ReplyDeleteSasaki says he wants to be the best. Well, being under Ohtani’s shadow isn’t going to do it. And, missing out on NYC endorsements isn’t going to do help his income. So, to me it’s Mets or Yankees and I believe it will be the Mets.
He signs a minor league deal now. Then, in March, you give him the same offer you have Yamamoto last year and show him how much he means to you. You aren’t allowed to tell him that now, but somehow you leak it out. Just like Tampa did with Wander Franco and Milwaukee did with Churizo, you can do with Sasaki: 12 years, $325, buying out his pre-arb years, his arb years, and whatever else there is.
I think he would like that very much. Now the question is, if you will do that for him, does he need your whole IFA sum? Can you still sign Peña?
The problem with Sasaki is that you can't do anything for the next month. If we could make decisions now (as we can for Pete) it would clarify our next moves.
ReplyDeleteAs far as stockpiling SPs, it's true in one way that "you can never have too much", storage is an issue. Unless we sign mid-level guys that we can keep in reserve upstate, there's only so much room at the inn.
Stearns has to thread a needle. But he is an expert seamster.
ReplyDeleteAs far as Pete, this from MLB makes it sound like he won’t be signing imminently with anyone: “The Mets may very well wind up bringing Alonso back to NY, but the Mets appear to be content to let his free agency play out over the coming weeks before making any big offer. Industry sources have speculated that Alonso could sign a five-year deal worth from $125-140MM to return to Mets, with an opt-out clause after the first and/or 2nd year of the deal, giving him an opportunity to test free agency again if he believes there is a better market after 2025 or '26.
ReplyDeleteAlonso’s OPS has fallen from .869 to .821 to .788 over the past two years, while his K percentage (24.7) this past season was his highest since 2020, marking the second straight year in which that number has risen. Alonso’s defense has been consistently poor throughout his career, but his -9 outs above average in 2024 was his worst mark in six big-league seasons.
“Pete is in a tough spot,” one NL executive said. “There doesn’t seem to be a big market for him because of his defense, and with so many first basemen out there, nobody is in a rush to overpay any of them.”
And, as many clamor for an aging Pete Alonso, saw this in CBS Sports about Arenado age decline: “An eight-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove winner, Arenado has shown signs of offensive decline in the last two seasons, and that raises concerns moving into what will be his age-34 season. He does, however, remain a standout defender at third base. He's owed $74 million over the next three seasons.”
ReplyDeleteSo, Christian Walker got $20MM a year for three years from the Astros. That’s a bit high to me, and Walker at 34 makes Alonso’s 30 look great! After Houston got burned with Jose Abreu’s deal, they come back and overpay again, albeit, by less than before. That’s the kind of team Boras is looking for: like $200 for seven years for Pete Alonso.
ReplyDeleteThat's Interesting take on Walker's contract Gus. As I was reading about it on MLB.com, I was thinking to myself - "is that all?". That one seemed to be an underpay considering both the bat and defense, as well as what the pitching market has looked like this year. I get that he will be 34 by opening day, but the 20M per year seemed a little light to me with his recent production. Perhaps I am missing something, but this appears to weaken Alonso's market.
ReplyDeleteSaw that Rickey Henderson passed. Wow.
ReplyDeleteThe Hall of Famer, and briefly a great Met, died this week at the age of 65 (pneumonia). Only one Ricky, ever. Henderson stole 130 bases and 1,406 in his career. Marched to a different drummer, but his greatness was undeniable.
Rickey had 111.1 career WAR.
ReplyDelete