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I had a crazy idea…not the first time, you’re quick to think.
“There he goes again….ORDERLY? ORDERLY? He’s off his meds.”
Anyway…My crazy thought?
Instead of signing Pete, focus on getting Vlad Jr next off season.
Not so crazy.
But then…what to do for first base for 2025?
How about buying a killer pen and getting weirdly creative at first base?
Last I looked, for all his slugging prowess, Pete Alonso does not have a lot of Wins Above Replacement. Just 2.6 last year, playing almost every game.
So, why not splurge on a killer pen, to avoid blown games, and get weirdly creative at first base? How?
A Jesse Winker and Joey Meneses platoon.
Jesse has never played first base in the majors. Well, he has played 13 errorless games at first base in the minors. How hard could it be?
Jesse would be the lefty hitter in the platoon.
Lifetime against righties, he is .276/.379/.462. Would you take that at first base? I would.
Meneses? He is a natural first baseman. He seemed to have declined in 2024, but maybe it was just an off year. He was great in 2022 and very solid in 2023.
Lifetime vs. lefties in MLB, he is .277/.328/.434. And hitting well in winter ball.
So, if the duo adhered to those career norms, you’d roughly get .270/.350/.445 at first base. Nice.
Let’s be more conservative: .260/.340/.430. Still good.
Last year, Pete was .240/.330/.460. And fanned an increasing amount, at 172 times. Just 2.6 WAR, too, playing almost every game. Might he fan 190 times in 2025? I dunno.
If we could sign Pete on a one year deal at age 30, I would still do that in a heartbeat. But he won’t do one year.
Give him 4-5 years? Huge risk of buying his decline seasons. And no Vlad.
Benefit of not signing Pete is saving roughly $20 million in net salary (not to mention additional taxes) that could be saved or deployed elsewhere.
“No Pete” might help them keep team salary low enough to keep from dreadfully sliding 10 slots on their first round pick, too.
The risk, of course, for Winker/Meneses at first base is they significantly underperform the above .270/.350/.445 projections. Ouch.
But, if that happened in April and May, perhaps a rebooted Mauricio or McNeil could man 3rd base and Mark Vientos shift to 1B starting around Memorial Day.
And we get an extra lethal arm or two for the pen with the Pete $$.
The pen that even with Edwin back was only 17th in MLB in 2024 with a 4.03 ERA. The most productive pen in baseball last year was Cleveland’s, and they had a 2.57 ERA while going 42-12, with an excellent 77% save rate. How many more wins did their pen produce than the METS’ pen? My guess is: a lot more wins.
Thoughts on this approach?
Lastly, I thought for a second about JD Martinez, being the platoon hitter at first base against lefties. He is in fact, a much better hit her career wise as a righty hitting lefties. Probably would be able to re-sign him cheaply, too.But, remarkably, he has never played first base in his long career, so scratch that one.
Wouldn't Ronny Mauricio produce the same level of offense as your platoon with Vientos moving to 1B and saving several million?
ReplyDeleteThat is a reasonable idea. Off your meds would be suggesting Marte can try to learn first base in order to play everyday, but for a player that takes time off every year, I doubt it’s realistic.
ReplyDeleteReese, Mauricio is in my plans. I just have great doubts he will be ready for opening day. I am thinking two months in the minors (no base stealing in cold weather, please).
ReplyDeleteAnd, he really needs to be an outfielder. Why? 133 career errors (most of them in the infield) is far more than the average MLB team makes in an entire season.
I’ve seen Mauricio range on pop ups to the outfield… His range and glide are impressive. I really see a good outfielder there.
DeleteGus, I would not mind Marte at first base, but astonishingly, in roughly 2000 games in the field as a pro, NONE at first base.
ReplyDeleteBut it would save the Mets from spending much to sign "Declining Pete" and let the Mets splurge on the bullpen.
So, I'd be game, but I'd also be very surprised to see the Mets do it.
I agree that he is too athletic and a bit too old to learn new tricks. I don’t see him as a fit there, but it was just spitballing, and wondering what his thoughts would be on a chance to play everyday.
DeleteI really like your bullpen idea, by the way, but feel the Mets have collected many arms so far and should be ok unless they get a good deal on one. Also, I feel Pete has some good years left and hope to use them in New York. But hope seems to be too far away right now.
Question: You move Vientos after he had a good year at third base, he has a good year at first base, so you still want Vlad?
ReplyDeleteOr, Vientos works very hard to improve defensively at third base. As an organization, do you wish to not reward that by removing him from third base for an unproven kid? Is that a message to send?
I say leave Vientos at third. Let Mauricio start in Syracuse to get up to speed and play a few positions. Try a Manesis/Baty platoon at first base.
My two cents if anyone will pay that much. The starting pitching looks to be settled at this point. The bullpen needs a couple of capable arms especially a lefty.
ReplyDeleteIn regard to the batting, the Mets have replaced Alonso's bat with Soto. Marte has replaced Martinez as the DH - less power but higher average and more speed on the base paths. Therefore, a draw. I am calling CF a draw also. This leaves the Mets one bat short and one position open. That position as it looks now is first base.
Do we sign Alonso to a contract that both sides are content? (Me - short-erm with mutual options similar to Bellinger's with the Cubs at best). Do we get creative as suggested here? And throw everything at Vlad, Jr. next year? What about the potential free agent next year in Naylor? Do we move Vientos to first, opening up third, and sign (Bregman) or trade ((Arenado) for a third baseman? If everything goes correctly with the prospects during the first half, what do the Mets do at the trade deadline? Glad my name is not David Stearns!!
My thought is trade for Arenado and move Vientos to first permanently. Vientos worked hard with Lindor last winter to the point that he made strides in his defensive play. Why not at first base this winter? Cannot be worse than Alonso. My though is that Alonso is not aging correctly. My thought is that Vlad Jr. will age like Vlad Sr. and will only be an expensive DH. After 2025, the positions that will need immediate attention are second and center. Can two of Williams, Acuna, Mauricio, Gilbert, Benge, Clifford, Reimer develop enough to play those positions in 2026? Or get the type of players that can? Or allow the Mets to trade players (like Nimmo) to upgrade?
Good thoughts Steve, I will Venmo you two cents. Here's mine, and it may sound a little crazy, but let's give JT Schwartz another look. He would give you at least Olerud quality defense at first. He has a great swing and hit at every level until stalling at AAA. But Acuna didn't hit at AAA either and did well in the majors. All these young guys coming up through the system will have spring training to show what they can do. Ryan Clifford has a great power bat but is not as proficient defensively as Schwartz and strikes out too much so far. All work in the making.
ReplyDeleteI do not think that Stearns is planning on adding any of the prospects to the OD roster. The only exception may be Acuna playing behind Lindor and O'Neil. They all missed too much time last year. Need to re-establish themselves at a minimum through the all-star break.
DeleteDon't think Schwatz's bat will carry over to this level plus a lack of power. Especially for a first baseman.
Sorry Tom, I usually agree with you, but I have to give this idea a definite no. Do I have a better idea...probably not.
ReplyDeleteIf they don't get Pete or Bregman, I might take a shot at Arenado (for not much more than a bag of balls). Move Vientos to 1B. Hopefully, Clifford will establish himself as a power hitting 1B.
Not looking too great for Pete. Just read that they offered him 3 years, 30 per. They would probably throw in a 4th year option. The offer has opt outs.
I would like Bregman if Pete leaves. But he already turned down 7/156 from Astros. I would like him at 4/5 years.
I would go with Marte at DH for the time being, maybe using Baty or Mauricio as lefty compliment. My hope is the Gilbert establishes himself at some point this season because the offensive production in CF looks bad.
With the lack of another good bat, they will have to get 2 more strong bullpen arms.
Steve, I agree with you that Vlad will not age well. I want no part of him.
Steve, one can agree that Stearns has a dizzying array of moves he can make. We hope he lands on a successful one.
ReplyDeleteI did not discuss it with my own brother Steve, but when I brought Arado up to him the other day, he was pretty dead setting against him. I truly think if they do sign Alonso back, at the earliest possible time, they should move the fences in. If Lindor, Soto, and Alonso, each sneak out several more extra base hits at home, all three contracts will look better, and the fancy love less to complain about. We saw the way they complain about Lindor when I get off to a tough start when he first came here. Especially with the concern about Alonso, possibly being in decline, it would really, really help him if the fences were closer and that he could sneak some balls that would be outs in the current stadium to be extra bases or home runs in a closer stadium.
The hitters guys from the minors? I just feel iffy about thinking about rushing any of them because collectively, they had such a poor 2024. It’s almost like the Missouri approach, show me first. If Guerrero were to be pursued in the next off-season, they would have to be extremely serious amounts of thought Given to whether or not his weight is going to become a problem. Because quite frankly, if it does, a very long-term contract would be a mistake.
Lastly, I will repeat that I think if Alonso and Vientos and Baty all swing at a lot more first pitches , not pitches out of thestrike zone, that they will produce much better, and if there is some age related decline coming for Alonso, that will help stave it off.
I very much like the idea of getting that hard throwing lefty reliever Tanner Scott regardless of if it is four years $50+ million. What if Edwin gets hurt? it would be great to have somebody that could go right in and close without having to pull Clay Holmes out of the starting rotation. And, if Edwin does not get hurt, Diaz and Scott would make a devastating one two punch from the bullpen.
Joe P, on SNY, one commentator said he did not think the Mets would go with Bregman because his power numbers were drop in city field. As compared to the park that he’s been playing in. Hopefully Pete those take three years 90,000,000 + an option. After all, that’s not bad money. At this point, it might be the best money he can get. Maybe they can build in some incentives. It would, of course be painful for Pete to sign that “low” while Soto gets so much more, but Soto is four years younger, and that matters immensely.
ReplyDeleteI read the same comments on what appears are several sights regarding Bregman. That is why I am more inclined to trade for Arenado. The trade would for less monies over less years. If we do trade for him, how about Baty and a buy down of the contract? At the end of the three years, Reimer and Baez should be ready to take over (if things go right. As we all know, they all don't work out as we hope).
DeleteThe three years, $90 million with options is what I would envision for Pete.
Paul, I just don’t see Schwartz. 1) he has to add some real power. 2) he failed a AAA last year, so to think that he’s ready for the major league to me just does not make sense. That’s why I have harped on him so much to try to add muscle and power. Because the Mets are a contending team, you have to do everything possible to force yourself into the arena of possibilities. That’s what Pete did back in 2018, when he played 159 games and drove in 146 runs. That just screamed out. I’m serious about this and I wanna be called up on opening day 2019. Schwartz has not done that. All he can do now is have a huge 2025 and try to prove that he’s major league caliber.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you; Tanner Scott should be a must. Even with him they still need another 7/8 inning guy. I also agree on Bregman, the length of the contract is ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteIf they are going to spend on 1 more big contract, who would you prefer?
ReplyDeleteBurnes, Bergman or Alonso?
I think Corbin Burnes is our most pressing need. We need a front line guy that takes the pressure off everyone else. We just can’t pray the Senga comes back to form or Manaea will be the same as last year. Burnes is the work horse that we need and bill up that bullpen like Tom said.
I would ask, define big? Of the three, the one that I would be prefer would be Alonso. As stated below, all three are Boras clients and could get bitten by the "Boras greed syndrome". Burnes for Snell money? let me think on that. Bregman - no thank you. I pass.
DeleteZozo,
ReplyDeleteWould love Burnes, but Stearns would never go for it. His MO is no long-term contracts for pitchers. The evidence is in the current starting rotation. Thus, the need for 2 stud relief pitchers.
My answer to Zozo's question is a slam dunk - Alonso, altho I am guessing that the longer things go, the more it appears that both Alonso and Burnes are going to get bitten by the Boras greed syndrome. It would not shock me at all to see Burnes get a Snell-like 2 year deal late in the spring. Somehow I still believe that Alonso will sign a better deal with the Mets - that 3/90 seems reasonable at this point.
ReplyDelete(that was last year's Snell deal with the Giants something like 2 year $64M with an opt out after one, not one one he just signed with the Dodgers)
DeleteAt this point, I do not think anyone has mentioned the possibility of Naylor's free agency next spring. Use a stop gap this year and pursue Naylor next year?
ReplyDeleteI will have to contemplate that for a while.
Why Naylor? What does he bring that Alonso doesn't?
DeleteIn response to a one year stop gap presented here, next year pursue Naylor? His bat would provide power, better defense, better aging projection than Alonso and Vlad, less cost. Age is between both.
ReplyDeleteNaylor is just not that good. He has never had a bWAR that is as high as Pete's worst year WAR. He has had one year of an OPS that was higher than Pete's worst OPS. He is not a better defender. Their defensive tracking is quite similar. How do you believe he would age better? I am a solid no on Naylor.
ReplyDelete