LUKE RITTER IN COLLEGE SEVERAL YEARS AGO
I like to see lowly ranked minor league hitters make it to the majors and succeed. Most don't. Some do.
Jeff McNeil and TJ Rivera are two guys who did so. Of course, TJ was cursed with the need for Tommy John surgery, hence his MLB career stalled at 344 plate appearances and a remarkable .304 batting average.
Yesterday, I brought up the hitting troubles of one Brett Baty and believed that if he greatly increased his first pitch swing rate to that of Oakland slugger Brent Rooker, who swung at first pitches in 2024 45% of the time or almost 80% more than Baty has so far in his MLB career, that Baty might just be doing a lot better.
It helped Rooker clearly, as Rooker hit .293 with 39 HRs and 112 RBIs in 146 games in a huge breakout season at age 29.
It got me thinking about 27 year old AAA slugger Luke Ritter, who is not in the Mets top 30 prospects lists.
Ritter is another underdog hitter in the minors, as was TJ Rivera. Luke seems to have no clear path to the majors, due to his high strikeout rate.
In the past 2 seasons, Luke hit a very impressive 53 HRs in 241 games (a rate of 36 HRs per 162 games), and he walked or was HBP 173 times in those 241 games. The latter ratio works out to a very high 116 walks/HBP in a 162 game equivalent. So why is he not a major leaguer, one might ask?
I will speculate - it seems that his very high walk/HBP rate means he is not a free swinger, but one who works counts.
Which is why I am guessing that, at least in part, "working the pitcher" is why he fanned 311 times in those 241 games (1.3 times per game), a deal-breaking rate of 208 Ks per 162 games. I believe that is why he's never played a major league game. It seems that he needs to lower that AAA K rate by 1/3 to about 0.9 per game to reach the majors.
My guess (without data to look at similar to what is available to his MLB counterparts like Baty and Rooker) is Luke is letting too many first pitch strikes sail by. Leading to deal-breaking high strikeout rates.
(Of course, it could also be a flaw in his swing, or struggles to pick up certain pitches, i do not know).
If I was Luke Ritter, at his age and having not made the majors, I'd set a plan to immediately cut the rate of walks and HBP in half in 2025, by swinging at many more first pitch strikes, like Brent Rooker clearly does.
Maybe such a change would significantly lower Luke's Ks and normalize his statistical numbers and get him to the majors.
Maybe over a 162 game equivalent, he could instead walk/HBP 60 times and fan 150 times, much more normal rates. Fewer walks and fewer Ks would increase his already solid power numbers, because he'd be hitting the ball a whole lot more.
Otherwise, I fail to see him reaching the majors.
Luisangel Acuna fanned just 96 times in 131 AAA games in 2024 (0.73 per game). His walk rate was much lower than Luke's, at just 40 walks in 131 games.
But he made the majors and Luke hasn't.
Why? The K rate.
Ronny Mauricio in 2023 in AAA before his call up played in 116 games, fanned just 97 times and walked just 35 times (half the walk rate of Ritter), but Ronny got called up.
Why? The acceptable K rate.
If Luke can fix that broken K rate, why can't he be the next TJ Rivera and make the majors?
Or even be the next Brent Rooker?
Normally, I don't agree with Tom on the importance of the amount of times one strikes out, but, in this case, I agree with him.
ReplyDeleteTo me, Ritter seems to be a one dimensional player that hits home runs in a mid-slugger range.
The 2025 Mets need more than this.
Travis Taijeron (remember him?) was very similar to Ritter. Lots of XBHs, and lots of walks, and lots of Ks. He got a brief cup of Wilpon coffee. It was brief because he never fixed his K problem. But also, he failed in his brief call up in 2017. Why, I ask? Well, maybe swinging at just 8 of 59 first pitches had a lot to do with that. Ar Brent Rooker's rate, Taijeron would have swung at 27 first pitches, not just 8. If Taijeron had any chance of a positve impression in his cup of coffee, he shot himself in the foot by his miniscule 14% first pitch swing rate.
ReplyDeleteRitter won't get the same with the Cohen Mets unless the Ks are drastically cut.
I never understood if a player has the eyes to hold back and walk, why doesn't he have the eyes to not whiff?
DeleteI hope it is just a matter of watching too many good pitches go by. If it is failure to recognize pitches, it will only get harder as the pitching gets better. MLB pitchers are more adept at disguising pitches.
ReplyDeleteAs a first baseman, the expectations are different for Ritter than Acuna and Mauricio. He is expected to have the power. I would be glad to give him Stewart’s role, if he played a few more positions. Can he catch?
ReplyDeleteSome years back I went to a AA game for the Astros affiliate and the third baseman from the night before was catching. Why, I asked. So, he can try to reach the majors
Gus, Ritter has played a lot of 2B, 3B, and OF, too. 52 games at 2B and 3B in 2024, 4 errors. So he has real versatility beyond 1B. I do not know how strong his arm is, but I agree with catching. A friend of mine was briefly a minor league pitcher. His brother was a back up catcher in the majors. He played parts of roughly 10 minor league seasons. MLB is a heckuva good paying job. He could get "hired" if he could catch.
ReplyDeleteIt goes back to my frequent lament....only 13 hitters per team, vs. 15 a few decades back. If it was 15 still, he'd have a shot. MLB should allow 2 more hitters paid $1 million or less per year on each MLB team. Low cost, great reward.
But it is Luke's fault - he has not solved his strikeout problem. He has to, unless he can get a Rule 5 draft move to a weak hitting MLB team..
Paul, without stats to look at things like first pitch swing %, it is pure guesswork for me.
ReplyDeleteBut Taijeron was very similar to Ritter, high walks and high Ks, and the fact that Travis had his tremendous chance with his Sept 2017 call up, back when rosters could be further expanded in September, and he blew it by swinging at just 8 of 59 first pitches in his 59 PAs. He couldn't afford to be nearly so choosey. Ritter will only get a call up if he solves his K problem, which is a shame for a guy who led the IL in RBIs.
Question
ReplyDeleteWould Ritter be a candidate for a platoon DH?
Mack, it is my point exactly. Each minor league hitter has a certain shelf life. If your Ks are too high, fix it or don't make it. If, as in the case of the traded Rhylan Thomas, if your K rate is really low, but so is your power output, fix it.
ReplyDeletePitchers have no such problem. Back in 1969, I will bet that 350 pitchers pitched in the major leagues that year. Now, it is closer to 1,000. If your arm doesn't fall off, you've got a chance to make it. Hitters have no such luxury. There were probably 400 hitters in 1969 (excluding Sept call ups), but probably only 700 now. So MLB pitcher "jobs" have nearly tripled in 50 years, but hitter positions have less-than-doubled.
So, if I am a hitter, I realize I will have far fewer opportunities to get to the big leagues. Why? Most of the opportunities go to the ranked guys like Vientos (everyday caliber) and Acuna (utility+ caliber). I HAVE to differentiate myself from the competition. So Luke Ritter may have led, or been top 5, in the IL in HRs, RBIs, and walks. But that gets you a "nice try" trophy.
Pitcher Dom Hamel, meanwhile, could be a drafted Rule 5 pitcher despite a miserable 2024, because there is an ongoing viable arms shortage.
Just saw your platoon DH question. Great question.
ReplyDeleteYes, I think Ritter in the majors could DH vs. lefties. In 224 PAs vs. lefties the past 2 seasons, hitting around .280, a .430 OBP, and a .560 slug %.
My rough rule of thumb is subtract 100 points from each in the majors…I would take a .330 OBP and a .430 slug % vs. MLB lefty pitchers.
His Ks are still high vs lefties the past 2 seasons…one every 3.6 times up….but he walked once every 5 times up. Good trade off..so…Why not?
Oddly, he must be well aware he doesn’t hit righties as well, because 22 of his 23 HBPs the past 2 seasons were when he was up against righthanders.
Ritter now has to compete (besides others) against Edward Olivares, who is roughly the same age, 1000 MLB plate appearances, decent pop, and only a K every 5.5 times up in the majors. Olivares is clearly ahead of Ritter. Ritter's K rate will always push him down the list, until he fixes it.
ReplyDelete