MACK -.MY Sunday Observations Report -

 

Good morning.

 

The recent signings by the Los Angeles Dodgers have caused me to wonder just how important it is the operate a baseball team below the luxury tax limits… especially if your team is making a shit load of money or your owner is richer than the soon to be installed President.

(by the way… still think the best team in history was the 1977 Dodgers)

The current Mets are becoming dominant in power bats. 3B Mark Vientos, SS Francisco Lindor, RF Juan Soto, and emerging C Francisco Alvarez are all flashing current and future home run creds. Should we wait to see if current Mets chain prospects develop into the next one?

Well, that worked for Vientos, seems to be working for Alvarez, was stalled due to an injury for Ronny Mauricio, and failed for Brett Baty. This time last year, we thought Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, Alex Ramirez, and Ryan Clifford would be banging down the CitiField doors this spring. How’s that working out?

Is it wrong… IF you can afford to do it… to look to the future at players like 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B Alex Bregman, 3B Nolan Arenado, 2B Ozzie Albies (2026 FA… team opt), DH Joc Pederson (2026 FA), and DH Kyle Schwarber (2026 FA)?

And what about the prospects in the chain? Do you stop targeting future bat growth? Absolutely not. But all the hits in the world at the AAA level “don’t mean squat” if you can’t do the same in the majors.

I strongly am in favor of continuing to go down the current Stearns/Steve plan of bring in a major bat a year… Soto this year… Vlad Jr. next year… and so on. Keep building this team on prime beef and let a prospect or two shock you along the way.

 

Starter pitching remains another animal. No team is going to trade their ace. Hell, forget their SP2 also. And it seems like every team is in during free agent time when that handful of top shelf starters become available. Both the sensible and economical thing is to draft your brains off in this category.

You have to develop your own starters to accomplish building a decent rotation. So far, the Mets have done well with David Peterson. It looks like Christian Scott will develop as well. Future pieces could be any combination of Brandon Sproat, Jonah Tong, and Nolan McLean. Longshots are Jonathan Pintaro, Douglas Orellana, and Jack Wenniger. Considering they have both Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea under extended contracts, the Mets rotation may not be in bad shape during the remainder of this decade.

We get excited about prospect pitchers, but let’s remember last year at this time we were excited about Dom Hamel, Mike Vasil, and (especially me) Blade Tidwell.

Baseball Ga Ga.

 

This is the time of the year that people do resolutions and predictions. I stopped doing each year ago. I will give my overall observations on how the Mets have done during the off season when the signing is done. Right now, if no one else is signed, it’s going to be hard to say the Mets did bad due to the Soto signing.

MetsTwitter has been harsh to Stearns-Cohen. It may even have chased away my friend Steve from X. His site remains down without explanation. I will miss him there.

Fans are weird. They seem to always forget that it takes two to tango. For all we know, there are 10 decent offers on the tables of 10 free agents out there and all this is being held up by these player’s agents. There are no more leaks from Queens so we all have to wait this out until spring training starts. If you don’t like it, go watch soccer.

 

Ben Weinrib of MLB.com wrote a story on 12-30-24 about 18 exciting prospects set for full-season debuts in 2025. One was a Met:

                                        Jeremy Rodriguez, SS/2B, Mets

Rodriguez has an unusually high floor for a Rookie-ball player thanks to his defensive instincts, plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. The Mets have played him some at second base so his defensive home is worth monitoring as well as his power, which has mostly manifested in the form of doubles to this point.

NYM No. 7 - Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50

Rodriguez was the D-backs’ biggest international addition in 2023, signing with the club for $1.25 million out of the Dominican Republic in January. He didn’t last long in the organization after a strong walk rate and OBP in the Dominican Summer League caught the Mets’ eye, and New York acquired him in a one-for-one swap for Major League outfielder Tommy Pham at the Trade Deadline. Rodriguez went 19-for-45 (.422) with eight extra-base hits, 11 walks and four strikeouts in 13 games for a Mets’ DSL affiliate after the move, further solidifying his status as a prospect to watch in his new organization.

Batting from the left side, Rodriguez was nearly stellar at protecting the plate in his first professional season, especially considering he didn't turn 17 until July. His 1.06 BB/K ratio ranked third among the 15 qualified DSL players playing in their age-16 seasons in '23. With only three of his 18 extra-base hits leaving the yard, his power plays best to the gaps, but it was always likely he’d need some time to get the pop to play in games.

The 6-foot infielder boasts above-average arm strength needed for long throws from shortstop, and while he’s just an average runner, he has the hands and footwork to keep getting work at the six. Notably, the Mets got him some looks at second base to keep his athleticism up the middle. Rodriguez will take his advanced approach stateside with plenty of development still to come.

 

Ernest Dove                 @ernestdove

18 year old Jeremy Rodriguez could become the "poster child" for player development under Stearns. Kid has already gotten reps/ABs stateside now & is ahead of the curve. Good enough BB/K rates so far. I've seen concerns with his glove so future pos like a Jett type is to be found

Mets News and Links 

@JohnFromAlbany

Jeremy Rodriguez has to be the Mets prospect to watch in 2025 as he will start the year in St. Lucie and may even see a call up to Brooklyn. He was heavily hyped after being traded from Arizona hitting .282/.355/.400 in 50 FCL Mets games in 2025. I want to see him in the field to see if he can be a future SS.

 

It will be interesting to see what position the Mets play him at in St. Lucie. He would showcase better as trade bait if they played him at short, but he would have a future as a Met (ETA: 2027) as a second baseman.

 

One prospect to watch for each team in 2025 - December 29th, 2024

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-prospects-to-watch-in-2025?partnerID=web_article-share

Mets: RHP Brandon Sproat

Plenty of questions remain regarding Sproat’s ability to develop into a true frontline starter, yet he also has the best chance of anyone in New York’s system to make a significant midsummer impact. Just a step away from the big leagues, Sproat, New York’s top prospect, must first master the Triple-A level. But if he gets off to a nice start, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him debut early in the season, as fellow prospect Christian Scott did last year. With a triple-digit fastball, Sproat boasts an even higher ceiling than Scott, as evidenced by his No. 40 ranking on MLB Pipeline’s Top Prospects list. At the highest level, he’ll need to be a pitcher not a thrower, which makes Sproat’s early-season development crucial to his chances. -- Anthony DiComo

 

I happen to think that Jonah Tong is the top Mets pitching prospect, but Sproat is a close second. One caveat… he did hit the wall when he was promoted to Syracuse. AAA is the introduction to old major league players that can still hit a pitch or two. Like many other pitchers in the past (Hamel, Vasil, etc.), let’s just say that Sproat had a hard time finding something positive in that brutal weather city.

His job in 2025 is simple. Steer the boat correctly and get back to producing stat lines like he did at the other levels he pitched in. If he does that, you could see him in Queens sooner than later.

 

Each team's breakout player for 2025 - December 30th, 2024

https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-mlb-breakout-players-for-every-team?partnerID=web_article-share

Mets: C Francisco Alvarez

Now that Mark Vientos has broken out, the Mets can hope for the same from his younger teammate, Alvarez. Entering his age-23 season, Alvarez has struggled to find consistency at the plate, and he dropped from 25 homers as a rookie to just 11 last season. But Alvarez improved his batting average and on-base percentage in Year 2, as well as his throwing arm behind the plate. He now has 228 games of experience at the game’s highest level and is at an age when players tend to break out. Often lauded for his work ethic, Alvarez still has a chance to be one of the game’s top offensive catchers. -- Anthony DiComo 

First of all, no one wants to see this “kid” play better this season than I do. That being said, he’s going to have to do a lot of things different in 2025 than he did in 2024.

First, stop worrying about the home runs here. There are plenty of other players on this team that can lead the way in that category. Just find a way to even out your game and produce productive batting results month after month.

As for defense, I don’t know what to do about his lack of being able to throw out runners at second. Let’s face it… opponent teams don’t attempt steals with their slower runners. It’s always the speed guys and Alvarez’ arm just isn’t strong enough.

Lastly, I think Alvy is an IL man walking. No proof or science or analytical study here. Just my gut. 

Lastly…

 

Prospect1500 - New York Mets Top 50 Prospects (2025)

Prospects1500 Tiers:

Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years

Tier 2: Players with an above-average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor

Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor

Tier 4: Players who have the potential to make the majors; possible sleeper candidates for sustained MLB success

Tier 5: Players of interest, worth keeping an eye on, who may make (or have made) the majors but provide minimal impact

 

Levels listed for each player are the highest levels player reached in 2024

 

Tier 1

None                            

Tier 2

1. Jett Williams, SS, 21, Triple-A

2. Brandon Sproat, RHP, 24, Triple-A

3. Drew Gilbert, OF, 24, Triple-A

4. Luisangel Acuña, SS/OF, 22, MLB

Tier 3

5. Ronny Mauricio, SS/OF, 23, Injured (MLB in 2023)

6. Ryan Clifford, 1B/OF, 21, Double-A

7. Carson Benge, OF, 21, Single-A

8. Jonah Tong, RHP, 21, Double-A

9. Jesus Baez, SS/2B, 19, High-A

10. Blade Tidwell, RHP, 23, Triple-A

Tier 4

11. Jeremy Rodriguez, SS, 18, Rookie (FCL)

12. Nolan McLean, RHP/DH, 23, Double-A

13. Nick Morabito, OF, 21, High-A

14. Colin Houck, SS/3B, 20, Single-A

15. Alex Ramírez, OF, 21, Double-A

16. Boston Baro, 3B/SS, 20, High-A

17. Yovanny Rodriguez, C, 18, Rookie (DSL)

18. Kevin Parada, C, 23, Double-A

19. Marco Vargas, SS, 19, Single-A

20. Jonathan Santucci, LHP/DH, 22, College

Tier 5

21. Felipe De La Cruz, LHP, 23, High-A

22. Dom Hamel, RHP, 25, Triple-A

23. Trey Snyder, SS, 19, Single-A

24. Jacob Reimer, 3B, 20, High-A

25. Jeffry Rosa, OF, 20, Single-A

26. Edward Lantigua, OF, 18, Rookie (DSL)

27. Calvin Ziegler, RHP, 22, High-A

28. Nick Lorusso, 1B, 24, Double-A

29. Daiverson Gutierrez, C, 19, Single-A

30. Christopher Suero, C, 20, High-A

31. Nate Dohm, RHP, 21, College

32. A.J. Ewing, OF/2B, 20, Single-A

33. Joander Suarez, RHP, 24, Triple-A

34. Ronald Hernandez, C/1B, 21, High-A

35. Eduardo Herrera, RHP, 24, Double-A

36. Wellington Aracena, RHP, 20, Single-A

37. Franklin Gomez, LHP, 19, Single-A

38. Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP, 28, Triple-A

39. Trey McLoughlin, RHP, 25, Triple-A

40. JT Schwartz, 1B, 25, Triple-A

41. Eli Serrano III, OF, 21, Single-A

42. Douglas Orellana, RHP, 22, High-A

43. Joel Díaz, RHP, 20, Single-A

44. Jack Wenninger, RHP, 22, High-A

45. Julio Zayas, C, 18, Rookie (FCL)

46. Raimon Gomez, RHP, 23, High-A

47. Brett Banks, RHP, 23, High-A

48. Jose Guevara, RHP, 19, Rookie (DSL)

49. Simon Juan, OF, 19, Rookie (FCL)

50. Jefrey De Los Santos, 2B/OF, 21, High-A

Me?

I agree there are no top tier prospects

I believe both Tong and Benge should be ranked above Clifford and Gilbert.

Having Orellana and Wenninger this low is close to criminal.