Remember's
Ramblings – Volume 2, Article 4
Jamuary 21, 2025
Are the Mets now better than last year?
This off-season has been kind of a roller-coaster for the Mets fans. From the high of signing Juan Soto to the current low of the first base/Alonso saga it has been an adventure.
Compared to the NL championship game line-up, there appears to be only two changes as of now. Soto for Alonso and McNeil for Iglesias. Improvement? I am hoping it is a push. Here's hoping for bounce back from McNeil and Nimmo. Here's hoping for improvements from Alvarez and Vientos. Would the addition of Alonso, after two consecutive years of declining overall performance push it to better?
Is there hope that the prospects will take the steps forward that was hoped last year? And provide the improvements?
Like most fans, I am heading into spring training with faith and hopes.
January 18, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Followed by TexasGusCC:
You don’t think that’s improvement???????
January 18, 2025 at 12:52 PM
SO.. Remember69, being the weird guy that can’t let a question like that go, decided to think about it.
What I realized is that when building a line-up, Soto and Alonso bring two different things. Soto, while yes, he hit 41 Homers last year, is best known for his OBP of .400+ and his runs scored (130 last year). He hit last year exclusively from the #2 slot, directly in front of Aaron Judge who happened to lead the league in home runs.
Will Soto still get on base 40% of the time? Chances are yes, he will. Will the hitter(s) behind him drive him in with the frequency that Judge was able to do last year? That is the harder question. Without the RBI bat of Alonso, the Mets are counting on no regression from Vientos. Brandon Nimmo will also be leaned on heavily to be a productive bat behind Soto.
Just a quick check showed a very small sample size, but Vientos was a different (worse) hitter in the clean-up spot than his most effective spot in the #2 hole. He wasn’t terrible batting 3rd.
Is a lineup of Lindor-Soto-Nimmo-Vientos-McNeil-Alvarez-DH-3B-CF as good as Lindor-Vientos-Nimmo-Alonso… from last year? It is not all that easy to tell if it is fact better just to swap Alonso for Soto when considering the make-up of the lineup. It probably is, but it would sure look a lot better if they could add a proven run producer like Alonso back in.
As it stands, that proven run producer that is scary for pitchers is absent behind Soto. Obviously Soto > Alonso, but it won’t do them any good if they cannot use Soto’s strengths and have a big guy driving him in regularly. The last thing they need is Soto to lead the league in being left on base (although he may anyway and still have a great year, just because he gets on base more than anyone else).
Another option that has come up occasionally in articles recently is a trade for Nolan Arenado and insert him in there.
I’ll re-post a comment that I posted yesterday afternoon with my thoughts about Arenado (valid only if Pete walks):
Remember1969
As I have been thinking about it, I have made a decent case to myself that an Arenado trade would not be the worst choice.
(1) He is still one of the best defensive 3rd basemen in the game.
(2) He has been in the middle of a pretty lousy situation in St. Louis for the last couple of years. Even in his down years he has been the best they have. They have had an environment there that can't be good to play in.
(3) He is about 3 good seasons away from Hall of Fame discussion.
(4) If I make a comp, it is Scott Rolen. Rolen, like Arenado, had a couple down years at ages 31 and 32 and came back strong to lock up that hall of fame spot in his later 30's
(5) If he is hitting behind Lindor and Soto, he has been a good RBI bat in the past and has never had guys like these two ahead of him. I see him as being a great fit.
(6) It moves Vientos to first base for good and give the whole infield (ok, 3/4 of it) some stability for the foreseeable future.
(7) Even if they take the entire salary from St. Louis, it is only $21M per year for 3 years. That is only 2.5 WAR per. Seems doable to me.
On the other hand, it could be Jim Fregosi II. But I would bet that the move
would work out a whole lot better than that. (and I ain't giving up Nolan Ryan
to get him!)
January 20, 2025 at 4:57 PM <end of comment>
So is the Mets line-up improved? Let your comments show us the answer!
I thought Steve pretty much nailed it with the post that got me started. I think they are still one proven bat short - Alonso or Arenado extends that line-up immensely.
Remember’s Reminiscing:
January 21 Birthdays
Jake Diekman celebrates his 38th birthday today
while Bill Graham, who passed away in 2006, would have been 88.
Arenado is a great glove…it is not my money…so I would not have a problem with the Mets getting him. But trading what is the key.
ReplyDeleteI'm happy with the current team, though I would like another prime cut reliever and Pete on a 1yr deal
ReplyDeleteI am glad my comment got you leading to this post.
ReplyDeleteI did add a second post stating that I thought the addition of Soto was greater than Alonso. But I was not confident in the rest of the lineup. Were the rest of the lineup going to return to past performances or make advances? Alluding to I believe the team needs to add one more bat. With the talks with Alonso appearing to be going nowhere, Bergman looking for a long-term contract, I think a trade for Arenado might be that bat.
In the trade, I would start with Baty. I believe that he needs a change in scenery to get him going. The Cards supposedly were going to add a lot of money in the trade to the Astros. Depending on the amount they would do here will depend on what other lower level prospect. With three years remaining on his contract, time to develop one of our other third base prospects. Per Baseball America, Baez is one of the top 10 third base prospects and should be ready by OD 2028. Add Baro, Reimer, Mauricio.
Cannot locate an article I read yesterday . The article looked at the lineups as they stood then. They listed the Mets lineup as a top five (3rd I think) but added an additional bat was necessary.
Would i rank them that high? What to I know?
Bregman, not Bergman
ReplyDeleteSteve, f we shipped Baty to the Cardinals and got Arenado with the Cards paying down a major chunk, would that be so bad? Your Jesus Baez point is a good one. Add a high quality reliever and let's go to WAR.
ReplyDeleteI guess I am on the record with numerous postings that a trade for Arenado is not so bad. LOL
DeleteI believe that the Mets need, as of today, a quality bat and a quality reliever. A second multi-inning reliever would not hurt as well.
Would a trade of Baty, Hamel and Parada for Arenado get it done? The St. Louis situation seems like it is beyond the point of repair. I don't think they can ask for a lot at this point. Even that might be too much.
ReplyDeleteall three players you have listed here had failing seasons.
DeleteYeah, and the Cardinals can't wait to show Arenado the door. That relationship is broken. They can't ask a lot and three broken players (2 former #1 picks and a #2) seems to be reasonable.
DeleteThanks Steve. We seem to be thinking along the same lines. It was interesting - in my point (6) about Arenado providing stability, my original words included "until Baez or Baro is ready in '27 or '28", but I pulled them because I thought maybe it would offend people that think Mauricio is going to be the guy much sooner. I don't think Mauricio will be the third baseman.
ReplyDeleteIn the Baseball America December issue, they projected the Mets 2028 OD line-up only including players signed and prospects. (Pre Soto signing). They projected Baez at third with Mauricio at DH. Vientos was at first. I think we should add a possibility of Pena as well. Can he advance that quickly? A lot to ask.
DeleteSteve
DeleteYou don't play this game with projected lineups three years from now
Good morning Bill, and I see that my astonishment made the cut. While the mere change of Alonso to Soto should represent a huge upgrade just based on signing dollars, I believe Alonso can be a bit better than he was last year. How much is the magic question.
ReplyDeleteIs for the difference between McNeil’s career average of 117 OPS+ and Iglesias’ 91 OPS+, there is no comparison. Did we forget that the magic ride finished for Iglesias during September and the playoffs and he did nothing?
Ah, you noticed that I conveniently ignored that part of the comment! :-)
ReplyDeleteYes, people will point to Iglesias's .337 BA and say he was a valuable player, but I would suggest that the most value that Iglesias brought to the team was the OMG intangible that brought the club together.
I am fully expecting McNeil to have a much better overall year - something akin to his second half 2024 before he got hurt in early September. His 'normal' bat helps make this a very good lineup. Iglesias will never reproduce his '24 stats.
This does not negate the fact that one more power (RBI) bat in the middle of the order is still AWOL.
Soto better be great because they've gone all Jeff Wilpon since his signing. I guess there really relying on the kids producing quickly but thats not given. It makes you think how much better we'd be if the Yanks signed Soto and we made the trades they have made. I still think Soto was a Steve signing and now Sterns is back to his Brewer days with cost concious additions and this is after hearing for years "money is no object". Makes you wonder.
ReplyDeleteGary, I know we are calling the Stearns’ work as Milwaukee East, but I cannot question or complain about his product based on one year’s results. Not a single fan expected the Mets to reach the NLCS last year. And while we felt the Mets may have been fortunate, I claim that with Nimmo’s, McNeil’s and Alvarez’s struggles made it harder last year and if they bounce back, this team will be stronger just from that! Before Soto’s contributions.
DeleteGus, completely agree about the offense - we should be able to expect incremental improvement from Vientos, and solid years from the three you pointed out (altho, in fairness, Nimmo did have 90 RBI last year in a somewhat disappointing overall showing).
DeleteWhere I struggle is on the mound. Can the Stearns magic return with a patchwork rotation? They got very solid efforts from their starters, especially the second half. Will Montas be >= Quintana? Will Senga come back healthy and provide his '23 numbers? Will Holmes provide anything close to what Severino gave them last year?
Bill, I agree. The mound is a problem. Manaea is a #2 at best. Senga was hurt but hopefully has recovered. Holmes and Montas are unknowns, but their upside isn’t exactly Sasaki. Peterson is always outpitching his xERA because he always walks more than average, and then you have Megill, Canning, Blackburn, and so on. Compare that to the aces in Chavez Ravine or even Philadelphia’s strong starting staff, and I’m a bit worried. It’s vital that Stearns builds a super strong bullpen to support the starters and maybe carry them at times.
DeleteI relax when I remember that the end game is scoring more than the other team. One more big bat and they have a killer line-up that will score more than this collection of pitchers will give up.
DeleteMack - I agree with your reply. Recent draft pick performances confirm this. However, I see things like Baseball America's projections as how do others view the prospects. It is so easy to become enamored with our prospects that we really do not see who they are. Baez is still deep in the system and has a long was to go.
ReplyDeleteYates to LAD
ReplyDeleteCiao Kirby! Give me Esteves and Stanek!
DeleteTex I get it but our starting staff is maybe just above avg. overall and that's only if Senga is Senga so then build a killer pen but that's not happened yet either so what's the plan? It seems MLB's plan is LA is king and all the rest of the teams are here so the Dodgers have someone to play.
ReplyDeleteGary, only one starter can pitch per day. You pummel whoever they send ans wait for their over 30 superstars to see that they don’t have it like they used to.
DeleteTime to concede WS to the Dodgers. Let's create another championship called Gold Series for the other 29 clubs.
ReplyDelete