Mack’s Mets – the premier site for information on the New York Mets talent pipeline and dialogue on Mets prospects, Mets news, and Mets opinions.
Okay...
Tomorrow things almost are for real.
One of the decisions that need to be made before the real opening day is... who is going to be the starting second baseman?
Candidates:
Ronny Mauricio - injured... not available
Jeff McNeil
Luisangel Acuna
Brett Baty
Nick Madrigal
Jared Young
Tom Brennan
Take it away...
Everyone in Metsville wonders…
Is Acuna ready?
What about Baty?
Gilbert? Sproat? Williams?
The answers depend on how you look at matters.
What’s your prism?
First, acknowledge and factor in that the Mets are in a VERY TOUGH division, where the title and even a wild card spot are not automatic.
As such, do you want to bring up a young hitter who will flounder, perhaps hitting .190, and you miss the playoffs by one lousy stinking game?
If you are Stearns the answer likely is…Uhh, No. Heck No!
If Acuna and Baty were on the White Sox, the prism would be different - they’d absolutely be getting major time in 2025, since the White Sox have little to lose, because they will lose a lot. Maybe a little more than a lot.
Heck, if I were the Chi Sox, and I had Jett Williams in the system, too, and he was hot through Memorial Day, I’d call him up, also. The Mets won’t, though.
They have a playoff spot to try to secure.
You really want the playoffs? You need ample veterans with proven baselines to get you there. Prospects most of the time are wild cards. I pointed out recently that the touted Jarred Kelenic had 500 at bats in his first two seasons and hit .168. Even Mark Vientos scuffled for over a year before he started crushing lots of baseballs like a bona fide MLB slugger.
Have a prospect today do the Kelenic Sputter on the Mets and perhaps the playoffs go out the window.
Acuna? Well, he did OK in AAA last year. But he didn’t hit anywhere near .350 for Syracuse. I remember when Eric Campbell got promoted by the Mets in 2014 after in fact hitting .355 in AAA. He was hitting much better than Acuna, started out with the Mets well like Acuna, but then…Eric flopped. The league figured him out. Will Acuna get figured out?
Baty? He’s failed a few times, so he is risky to put any real reliance on. He doesn’t have to prove he can excel…he does need to prove he won’t star in “Flop 3”.
Let’s move on…
Relievers?
You always need a lot of them, and you can and will try out quite a few prospect relievers, first in in lopsided games. That part’s easy. They’re ready when they are needed, ready or not.
Starters like Sproat, though?
Same quandary as the hitters. When Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux started their Hall of Fame careers, initially they were mediocre at best. That mediocrity doesn’t get a team in a tightly contested division to the playoffs. So Sproat won’t go north with the Mets.
If Sproat was in the lowly White Sox organization, though, he’d be called up very quickly. Heck, he might start on opening day. Nothing to lose if he struggles for a while in the Windy City. 50-112, or 60-102, what’s the difference, really?
I think the above is how David Stearns sees it.
- If you want to go deep into the playoffs…
- You’ve got to get into the playoffs first.
Rookies are risky.They should wear a label from the surgeon general on the hazards of using rookie hitters. Potentially hazardous to your playoff efforts.
Obviously, the elephant in the room is the 15 year nearly billionaire, Juan Soto. Everyone knows what he can do with the bat but it’s all stat sheets and video reruns of his career up until this point. No one is quite sure what he will do in his first go around with the New York Mets. He’s clearly expected to be an All Star/Hall of Fame type of player for them, but will the pressure to be the number one guy have a negative impact on his psyche as he’s always been a major guy wherever he’s played but not THE guy.
The untimely injury of Frankie Montas is surely creating a lot of trepidation among team personnel, media and fans, though secretly some may feel the team is better off without him than with him. That conclusion is overly simplistic and while Montas is not exactly Cy Young material at his best, his innings eating ability is going to test in-house resources over a fairly long stretch of time. Right now the obvious fill-in candidates identified are Tylor Megill who finished 2024 strongly, Paul Blackburn who is in that “Why did we trade for him?” category, Max Kranick who hasn’t shown he’s better than a minor league pitcher and “Why did we sign him?” Griffin Canning. As someone who’s been pretty vocal about the lack of consistency from Megill, he’s currently number one in my book if they’re not going outside or pushing unproven rookies harder than they should.
2024 was a season of under achieving by several players. Francisco Alvarez forgot how to hit the long ball. Brandon Nimmo’s ability to make regular contact vanished as he was unable to step properly and maintain good body position in the box. Jeff McNeil did end the season looking more like his old self but the aggregate numbers for the second year in a row were not good. Center field is still being viewed primarily as a defensive position which is fine if the rest of the slumping players return to form. However, no opposing pitchers are going to have agita facing Tyrone Taylor nor Jose Siri.
Then there are the youth battles. Brett Baty is still around and had a run productive season in AAA. He’s going to be fighting to make the opening day roster as a supersub assuming McNeil is at second and Vientos is at third. Luisangel Acuna is probably more suited to that role and his flashes in September and in Winter ball suggest he has the ability to deliver with his bat, his glove and his legs. Newcomer Nick Madrigal can make contact but not much else. Ronny Mauricio is likely down in AAA again until he can demonstrate he is healthy enough for a full schedule to consider advancement to the majors.
Then there’s the subject of DH. Even when they went beyond expectation and signed one of the most professional hitters in the game in J.D. Martinez the Mets have not yet gotten solid production out of this role. For now it appears to be a platoon between Jesse Winker and Starling Marte. It appears somewhat better than Daniel Vogelbach and Darin Ruf but not by a significant margin. They could do better here. Maybe Brett Baty works his way into the mix?
All I know is I am anxiously awaiting the umpire to yell, “Play ball!”
Not so fast. Word out of camp is that he is feeling really strong and the knee is good. Mauricio is a very talented player with some very good pop in his bat. He could make some waves in spring training and give the leadership some real dilemmas before the team heads north.
The “could” is not a “will” only because it takes time to restore the delicate timing that a professional baseball player needs to hit a 90+mph baseball moving in three dimensions at once. He has done it before, so the only question is how long it takes before he starts to find his stroke. In the field it will probably come quicker. Lots of reps on the back fields returns proficiency over the course of a few weeks.
Personally, i am anxious to see how he meets this challenge. I also look forward to seeing the competition ramp up for a few infield spots that are open to the guys that earn them.
WILL BRETT BATY DO THIS TO PITCHERS IN 2025?
So many Mets fans agonized over Jarred Kelenic being added to the Edwin Diaz trade, being a former 6th overall pick and whatnot.
Thou dost fret withal too much, William Shakespeare might have said.
Kelenic in his first two MLB years hit all right - he hit extreme headwinds.
500 at bats, 84 hits, which is a dreadful .168, in 2021 and 2022.
But in 2023 and 2024, he came around:
784 at bats, 43 doubles, 26 HRs, 94 RBIs, .241. Not All Star stuff, but solid. And 73 points higher than the first few years.
Jarred may never be better than average - only time will tell.
But he hit markedly better in the past two seasons than in the first 2.
Brett Baty?
He's had 2 Mets partial seasons in 2023-24, plus an injury-limited cup of coffee in late 2022.
So far, he's hit .215.
.215, doing the math in my head, is 47 points higher than Kelenic's .168 in his first two years.
So, maybe 2025 is Baty's jump-up year, to at least mediocrity from his below-mediocre results of 2022-24.
Baseball Reference is not excited about Baty:
It projects him at .229/.298/.356 in 324 plate appearances for 2025.
Steamers only lists Baty for 26 at bats in 2025. Skip them.
ZiPS has him at 480 plate appearances, .240/.315/.396.
- Very close to Kelenic's last 2 seasons.
Hard to see him getting 480 plate appearances with these Mets, what with Alonso back and all, unless (heaven forbid) there is a rash of injuries.
But I think Baty will rise from sub-mediocrity to mediocrity in 2025.
That may not be what he wants - but .240/.315/.396 ain't bad.
It is actually pretty close to the .232/.317/.423 that ZiPS has projected for Michael Conforto with the Dodgers this year.
Baty's one big disadvantage is this Mets team is built to win - and so playing time could be tough to come by. If he was with the Chicago White Sox, 600 plate appearances would be his.
Having read the above, what do you generally foresee for 2025 for Baty?
I'd settle for Brent Rooker 2023, when Rooker went from really struggling to 30 HRs. I imagine Baty would settle for that, too.
Baty better watch out, though. Ronny Mauricio said he is feeling pretty good with his leg right now and plans to return as a BETTER ballplayer than he was pre-injury in the moths to come.
QUESTION OF THE DAY:
Will the Mets sign another starter with Fragile Frankie Montas due to be out for perhaps the first few months of the 2025 season?
HOPEFULLY, PARADA'S 2025 WILL HAVE HIM GRINNING EAR TO EAR
Kevin Parada was the 11th overall pick in 2022.
In 2022, he started his pro career briefly, but well:
55 plate appearances, .275/.455/.425.
.455 OBP? Maybe that would have been a good time to trade him, as a high first rounder coming off of those limited, but impressive, numbers.
In 2023, he played mostly in Brooklyn, hitting a decent .265 there, with 96 Ks in 87 games. Not bad - many do worse in Brooklyn with the stick. Ks there were a bit high, but the whole league's K rate was high.
A late season promotion to AA saw the start of his hitting woes:
He accrues just 10 hits in 54 at bats, with 23 Ks in 60 PAs, a high K ratio.
But it was just a AA adjustment period, right?
Seemingly, the answer to that is no.
He hit poorly in Arizona in the fall of 2023, just .186 with 4 walks and 29 Ks in 75 times up. Not good at all. I started to wonder then.
In 2024, solely in AA, he fanned 153 times in 114 games, a disturbingly high rate. Over 162 games, that rate would result in 217 Ks.
He hit .214, but even in his best month, when he hit .300 in July, he fanned a lot - 27 times in 79 PAs.
He still managed a .304 OBP in 2024, due to 53 walks and HBPs in those 114 games, a high free pass rate.
His low .214 season average was due in good part to his slumping (after that .300 July) to the ugly tune of .136 in 24 August games, followed by a rebound, going 10 for 40 in September. Remove the August disaster, and the rest of the season, he hit a better .234.
Another key number for him is that he will play most of 2025 as just a 23 year old (turns 24 in August).
Me? I would try whatever I could to get him to succeed at the dish in 2025.
One thing I noticed is that in the first inning, he hit .279/.347/.488.
But he often did not get up to hit until the 2nd or 3rd innings, often hitting further down in the line up. Didn't go well.
In the 2nd and 3rd innings, he hit just .111 and .167.
What does that tell me, if I am managing him? I'd bat him 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the line up, not only because he hit better in the first inning by far, but also it would likely give him 30 or 40 more at bats on the season. He's your first round pick, maximize his at bats and see if increased AB repetition lifts him higher, faster.
And I would encourage him to not try to work a lot of walks by taking first pitch strikes. Be a free swinger early in counts and get the strikeouts down. In 154 at bats where he was behind in the count, he hit just .162 with a very high 91 Ks. Make more contact early to avoid being behind in the count. Worry about walks later in your career.
And perhaps do defensive choke-ups with 2 strikes. Talk to Jeff McNeil about that while you are in camp. He may share something that's very helpful in that regard.
Bottom line is he needs to cut his Ks by about one third. Full stop.
Doing so will boost his average significantly in 2025. More base hits, less pressure.
But he is in a tough spot.
For instance, Tomas Nido has a negative career MLB WAR, but at age 23 in AA, while he hit just .232, he fanned only 63 times in 404 plate appearances (15.5%, vs. Parada's 33.7%).
But in the majors, Nido fanned 245 times in 945 PAs (26%), a significant JUMP over his AA numbers. MLB pitchers are strikeout masters.
So, Kevin has a big task ahead. It would really behoove him to cut his 2024 K rate in half to significantly increase his chances of at least achieving the MLB level of success of Tomas Nido.
Of course, on the other hand, there was a Mets prospect who hit a higher .280 in AA and AAA but still rolled with a fairly high 318 Ks in 276 games. He's doing pretty good now.
His name? Mark Vientos.
And let's remember that Jarred Kelenic in 500 at bats in his first two MLB seasons hit a horrid .168, then he got a lot better the last 2 years. And Brent Rooker of the As stunk until he turned 28, and then hit well at age 28 and tremendously in 2024 at age 29.
Likewise, maybe Parada just had a VERY bad hitting year and is ready to take a big upwards leap, like those guys did.
My conclusion?
Don't lose hope.
Parada deserves our giving him 2025 before deciding whether or not he is future MLB timber. But he won't be if he can't stomp down on the Ks.
Lastly, I could not readily see how he hit as a DH vs. as a catcher. He was a DH in 40 games in 2024 and a catcher in the other 74 games. If he hits better as a DH, then flip those numbers and let him catch 40 games and DH 74. Basically, do everything possible to get him to hit better in 2025 - the catching should not be the major focus.
#11 OVERALL PICKS PARADA AND DOM SMITH HAVE SIMILARITIES
Dominic Smith was an 11th overall pick in 2013, weighing 185 at the time of signing out of high school. Bad eating habits, coupled with sleep apnea, ballooned him to 260 when the Mets called him up from the minors some years later.
Parada, also an 11th overall pick, albeit more recently, had a sweet tooth problem last year (according to an article by Anthony DiComo).
The sweet tooth caused him to add a bunch of weight, and probably hampered his performance.
This winter, he altered his diet to reduce desserts, and dropped 15 pounds, coming to camp with more muscle and "less baggage".
My suggestion:
Sweets should not be eaten by Kevin. Just say no. Say yes to success.
I find sweets to be rather addictive, and relapse into overeating sweets is easy, so I would recommend Kevin have zero dessert tolerance. Skip them entirely.
At least until AFTER you sign your big free agent contract 8 years from now.
We all get hungry. When you get hungry?
Feast on pitchers instead.
FRANKY MONTAS BLUES
Montas has not thrown a single inning for the Mets, even in spring training. And he gets hurt and will miss 6-8 weeks. The good news is 6 weeks from now is early April, so he'd not miss much of the season. The bad news is "Mets 6-8 weeks injuries" typically are longer in actuality.
Remarkable, huh?
Is Matt Allan ready? Imagine being the Mets pitcher who is not getting into spring games while Matt Allan is.
Look at the bright side on Montas - Dave Dravecky had it worse. (I'm sorry, I am cranky this morning and when I am, I write weird stuff).
I'M SO VLAD, I'M SO VLAD, I'M VLAD, I'M VLAD, I'M VLAD
The lead-in line being a parody of the 1960s Cream hit song "I'm So Glad". Why be glad about Vlad? SNY reported the following on Tuesday:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays did not agree on a contract extension before Guerrero's self-imposed start of spring training deadline, which means Guerrero will hit free agency after this season -- leaving open an incredibly intriguing possibility for the Mets.
If the Mets get Vlad next off season, this definitely won't be your mother's Mets anymore. Instead, there will be frequent peels of thunder in Queens.
Mack's Mets will summarize players mentioned as possible new members of the team available via trade or free agency that have popped up in the media associated with them as a part of the 40 man roster. These bullet points are not necessarily factual as if they were leaked from the Mets front office. They comprise opinions, rumors and hypotheticals that various Mets beat writers and bloggers have felt necessary to put out into public notice. Like EPA gas mileage ratings, take the news with a grain of salt. We share but don’t necessarily endorse any of these transactions.
I’d thought about ending this series of rumors now that Spring Training has started but already there is news to be discussed and considered.
Long Term Need Arises
Word came out on Monday evening that Frankie Montas has a high grade lat strain which will keep him from throwing for pretty much all of Spring Training and then working his way back with a return in perhaps May. That could mean 8 or more starts without the man signed as a $34 million free agent for reasons many still can’t fathom.
The alternatives in-house are obvious. You have Tylor Megill who was in the mix for either a bullpen slot or starting pitcher number 6. Think of him as the Brett Baty of pitching, never having established himself at the major league level but not a terrible choice either. He’s sporting a 4.56 ERA over 67 starts and 74 games. While familiarity works in his favor, the fact he still has a minor league option left does not.
Then comes Griffin Canning who was another scratch-your-head free agent contract. His career record doesn’t suggest that he would be any better than Montas or Megill, but then he hasn’t had his stint in the Mets pitching laboratory yet. As a pitcher with a career ERA of 4.78 over the course of 94 starts and 99 games it doesn’t appear as if he offered very much but not his presence as a possible substitute can’t be denied.
Next up on the 6th starter/bullpen tee is Max Kranick. While he never appeared for the Mets at the major league level, he did do so for the Pirates. Well, perhaps the less said, the better. He came to the Mets with a career 5.56 ERA over 9 starts and 11 games. In the minors last year at three levels he appeared in 45 games making 8 starts with a 3.82 ERA. Given that relative success you can see why he’s thinly in the running.
Of course, the rumor mill is alive with Dylan Cease and Michael King wild-assed proposals offering up anyone not slated to be on the Mets 26 man roster in bundle with perhaps 2 others for a rental. Given the need created by the injury expect that the price has gone up, not down.
Another name that came up quite familiar to the Mets is veteran Jose Quintana who still does not have a 2025 job. With a career ERA of 3.74 and a 2024 ERA of 3.75, you pretty much know what you’re going to get — a pitcher who is better than Frankie Montas is when he is healthy. Quintana might be seeking a multiyear deal now, but with no takers and him at age 36 you might snag him on a slight overpay for a single season.
Look down the list of available free agent starters and a few more names catch your eye. Kyle Gibson, Patrick Corbin, Andrew Heaney, Lance Lynn and Anthony DeScalfini are still available. Oh yeah, Trevor Bauer is looking for a job, too.
On the trade front, anyone is possible including soon-to-be ex Yankee and former Met Marcus Stroman. The pint-sized pot stirrer owns a career 3.72 ERA and is a few years younger than Quintana. However, he would require a higher paycheck and the sacrifice of player assets to consummate a trade.
Oh yeah...let’s not forget trade acquisition Paul Blackburn, he of injury recovery status and a career ERA of 4.85. He kind of makes you yearn for a prompt recover of the career ERA 4.09 Frankie Montas.
Moving On...
This time of the year you tend to see a number of “you never know” types of articles about players not expected to come north with the team. One such post was about injury-prone Oliver Ortega who can strike people out when healthy, but also has a career ERA just over 4.00.
Jett Williams was the first injury at Port St. Lucie when he was plunked on the meaty part of the hand but reports are he will miss a few days and nothing major is expected to have come from the HBP.
Closer Edwin Diaz is happy to be able to work out without any precautionary restrictions as he is 100% healthy. That’s the good news. The bad news is his revelation that in 2026 he once again wants to participate in the WBC which cost him his entire 2023 season.
Jose Butto was named a multi inning reliever by manager Carlos Mendoza. As much as he might help in the starting pitcher mix (particularly now that they are down one) his value in the bullpen does not have a real replacement available to assume that role.
Starting pitcher Kodai Senga was in the news and not just for his quality first batting practice appearance. He voiced the opinion that the Mets would do better recruiting Japanese players (pitchers in particular) if they installed a roof to keep rain and cold out of the playing field. That’s an expensive but interesting notion.
Word also came out that newly acquired A.J. Minter who was slated to be the primary lefty out of the pen is going to be shut down while continuing to recover from hip surgery though the optimistic word is that it is not a long term thing, merely precautionary. With few lefties in camp with high potential this loss of Minter could prove a bit harder to swallow than originally thought.
Speaking of injuries, Ronny Mauricio is continuing an extremely slow progress towards recovery which already cost him his 2024 season. No one expects him to make the opening day roster.
We’ve already covered the second base proposition before the news of Brandon Nimmo’s injury recovery arose. Right now in addition to Jeff McNeil you have Luisangel Acuna and Brett Baty in the mix along with newcomer Nick Madrigal. There is no sign of a reunion with Jose Iglesias and Mauricio is not yet 100% healthy.
Starling Marte was in the news a bit this past week about accepting whatever role the team has in mind for him and the club’s transparency about trading him elsewhere that might give him many more innings of playing time than is projected to happen on the Mets.
Multiple places reported the prospect of Francisco Lindor being named the Mets team captain, a role that’s been vacant since David Wright’s retirement.
Francisco Alvarez reported making some adjustments to his swing based upon advice from veteran All Star and former teammate J.D. Martinez. Everyone is anxious to see if power can return to his offensive game after a dismal 2024.
Oh, some guy named Juan Soto showed up in blue with orange trim in Port St. Lucie. He said the player he’s most excited to see in the lineup is the eleventh hour returning Pete Alonso who does homer at an Aaron Judge rate for his career.
SAVAGE VIEWS – HOW DID I DO?
About this
time a year ago, I played the optimist and projected the Mets would score about
100 more runs than they did in 2023. I forecast that their starting lineup
would outperform their 2023 numbers. Boy, was I wrong. However, my guess was
that they were a playoff caliber team.
Below
is a comparison of my projected 2024 numbers vs actual.
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I was way off base with McNeil, Alonso, Nimmo and Alvarez. On the other hand, my other forecasts were not far off. Also, I see we got some bad news on Montas. Perhaps it opens up the possibility of Brandon Sproat... making the
team out of spring training. |
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Ray
February 18,
2025