Tom Brennan: Why Can't Baty Become Our Kelenic?

WILL BRETT BATY DO THIS TO PITCHERS IN 2025?

So many Mets fans agonized over Jarred Kelenic being added to the Edwin Diaz trade, being a former 6th overall pick and whatnot.

Thou dost fret withal too much, William Shakespeare might have said.

Kelenic in his first two MLB years hit all right - he hit extreme headwinds.

500 at bats, 84 hits, which is a dreadful .168, in 2021 and 2022.   

But in 2023 and 2024, he came around:

784 at bats, 43 doubles, 26 HRs, 94 RBIs, .241.  Not All Star stuff, but solid.  And 73 points higher than the first few years.

Jarred may never be better than average - only time will tell.

But he hit markedly better in the past two seasons than in the first 2.

Brett Baty? 

He's had 2 Mets partial seasons in 2023-24, plus an injury-limited cup of coffee in late 2022.

So far, he's hit .215.

.215, doing the math in my head, is 47 points higher than Kelenic's .168 in his first two years.

So, maybe 2025 is Baty's jump-up year, to at least mediocrity from his below-mediocre results of 2022-24.

Baseball Reference is not excited about Baty: 

It projects him at .229/.298/.356 in 324 plate appearances for 2025.

Steamers only lists Baty for 26 at bats in 2025.  Skip them.

ZiPS has him at 480 plate appearances, .240/.315/.396.  

 - Very close to Kelenic's last 2 seasons.

Hard to see him getting 480 plate appearances with these Mets, what with Alonso back and all, unless (heaven forbid) there is a rash of injuries.

But I think Baty will rise from sub-mediocrity to mediocrity in 2025.  

That may not be what he wants - but .240/.315/.396 ain't bad.

It is actually pretty close to the .232/.317/.423 that ZiPS has projected for Michael Conforto with the Dodgers this year.

Baty's one big disadvantage is this Mets team is built to win - and so playing time could be tough to come by.  If he was with the Chicago White Sox, 600 plate appearances would be his.

Having read the above, what do you generally foresee for 2025 for Baty?

I'd settle for Brent Rooker 2023, when Rooker went from really struggling to 30 HRs.  I imagine Baty would settle for that, too.

Baty better watch out, though.  Ronny Mauricio said he is feeling pretty good with his leg right now and plans to return as a BETTER ballplayer than he was pre-injury in the moths to come.

QUESTION OF THE DAY:

Will the Mets sign another starter with Fragile Frankie Montas due to be out for perhaps the first few months of the 2025 season?

  

Tom Brennan: Parada By The Numbers; Montas Blues

HOPEFULLY, PARADA'S 2025 WILL HAVE HIM GRINNING EAR TO EAR

Kevin Parada was the 11th overall pick in 2022.  

In 2022, he started his pro career briefly, but well: 

55 plate appearances, .275/.455/.425.

.455 OBP? Maybe that would have been a good time to trade him, as a high first rounder coming off of those limited, but impressive, numbers.

In 2023, he played mostly in Brooklyn, hitting a decent .265 there, with 96 Ks in 87 games. Not bad - many do worse in Brooklyn with the stick.  Ks there were a bit high, but the whole league's K rate was high.

A late season promotion to AA saw the start of his hitting woes:

He accrues just 10 hits in 54 at bats, with 23 Ks in 60 PAs, a high K ratio.  

But it was just a AA adjustment period, right?

Seemingly, the answer to that is no.

He hit poorly in Arizona in the fall of 2023, just .186 with 4 walks and 29 Ks in 75 times up. Not good at all.  I started to wonder then.

In 2024, solely in AA, he fanned 153 times in 114 games, a disturbingly high rate.  Over 162 games, that rate would result in 217 Ks.

He hit .214, but even in his best month, when he hit .300 in July, he fanned a lot - 27 times in 79 PAs.

He still managed a .304 OBP in 2024, due to 53 walks and HBPs in those 114 games, a high free pass rate.

His low .214 season average was due in good part to his slumping (after that .300 July) to the ugly tune of .136 in 24 August games, followed by a rebound, going 10 for 40 in September.   Remove the August disaster, and the rest of the season, he hit a better .234.

Another key number for him is that he will play most of 2025 as just a 23 year old (turns 24 in August).

Me?  I would try whatever I could to get him to succeed at the dish in 2025.  

One thing I noticed is that in the first inning, he hit .279/.347/.488.

But he often did not get up to hit until the 2nd or 3rd innings, often hitting further down in the line up.  Didn't go well.  

In the 2nd and 3rd innings, he hit just .111 and .167.  

What does that tell me, if I am managing him?  I'd bat him 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the line up, not only because he hit better in the first inning by far, but also it would likely give him 30 or 40 more at bats on the season.  He's your first round pick, maximize his at bats and see if increased AB repetition lifts him higher, faster.

And I would encourage him to not try to work a lot of walks by taking first pitch strikes.  Be a free swinger early in counts and get the strikeouts down.  In 154 at bats where he was behind in the count, he hit just .162 with a very high 91 Ks. Make more contact early to avoid being behind in the count. Worry about walks later in your career.  

And perhaps do defensive choke-ups with 2 strikes.  Talk to Jeff McNeil about that while you are in camp.  He may share something that's very helpful in that regard.

Bottom line is he needs to cut his Ks by about one third.  Full stop.

Doing so will boost his average significantly in 2025. More base hits, less pressure.

But he is in a tough spot.  

For instance, Tomas Nido has a negative career MLB WAR, but at age 23 in AA, while he hit just .232, he fanned only 63 times in 404 plate appearances (15.5%, vs. Parada's 33.7%).  

But in the majors, Nido fanned 245 times in 945 PAs (26%), a significant JUMP over his AA numbers.   MLB pitchers are strikeout masters.

So, Kevin has a big task ahead.  It would really behoove him to cut his 2024 K rate in half to significantly increase his chances of at least achieving the MLB level of success of Tomas Nido.

Of course, on the other hand, there was a Mets prospect who hit a higher .280 in AA and AAA but still rolled with a fairly high 318 Ks in 276 games.  He's doing pretty good now.  

His name?  Mark Vientos.

And let's remember that Jarred Kelenic in 500 at bats in his first two MLB seasons hit a horrid .168, then he got a lot better the last 2 years.  And Brent Rooker of the As stunk until he turned 28, and then hit well at age 28 and tremendously in 2024 at age 29.

Likewise, maybe Parada just had a VERY bad hitting year and is ready to take a big upwards leap, like those guys did.

My conclusion?  

Don't lose hope.

Parada deserves our giving him 2025 before deciding whether or not he is future MLB timber.  But he won't be if he can't stomp down on the Ks.

Lastly, I could not readily see how he hit as a DH vs. as a catcher.  He was a DH in 40 games in 2024 and a catcher in the other 74 games.  If he hits better as a DH, then flip those numbers and let him catch 40 games and DH 74.  Basically, do everything possible to get him to hit better in 2025 - the catching should not be the major focus.

#11 OVERALL PICKS PARADA AND DOM SMITH HAVE SIMILARITIES

Dominic Smith was an 11th overall pick in 2013, weighing 185 at the time of signing out of high school. Bad eating habits, coupled with sleep apnea, ballooned him to 260 when the Mets called him up from the minors some years later.

Parada, also an 11th overall pick, albeit more recently, had a sweet tooth problem last year (according to an article by Anthony DiComo). 

The sweet tooth caused him to add a bunch of weight, and probably hampered his performance.

This winter, he altered his diet to reduce desserts, and dropped 15 pounds, coming to camp with more muscle and "less baggage". 

My suggestion: 

Sweets should not be eaten by Kevin. Just say no.  Say yes to success.

I find sweets to be rather addictive, and relapse into overeating sweets is easy, so I would recommend Kevin have zero dessert tolerance. Skip them entirely.  

At least until AFTER you sign your big free agent contract 8 years from now.

We all get hungry.  When you get hungry? 

Feast on pitchers instead.

FRANKY MONTAS BLUES

Montas has not thrown a single inning for the Mets, even in spring training.  And he gets hurt and will miss 6-8 weeks.  The good news is 6 weeks from now is early April, so he'd not miss much of the season.  The bad news is "Mets 6-8 weeks injuries" typically are longer in actuality.

Remarkable, huh?

Is Matt Allan ready?  Imagine being the Mets pitcher who is not getting into spring games while Matt Allan is.

Look at the bright side on Montas - Dave Dravecky had it worse. (I'm sorry, I am cranky this morning and when I am, I write weird stuff).

I'M SO VLAD, I'M SO VLAD, I'M VLAD, I'M VLAD, I'M VLAD

The lead-in line being a parody of the 1960s Cream hit song "I'm So Glad".  Why be glad about Vlad? SNY reported the following on Tuesday:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays did not agree on a contract extension before Guerrero's self-imposed start of spring training deadline, which means Guerrero will hit free agency after this season -- leaving open an incredibly intriguing possibility for the Mets.

If the Mets get Vlad next off season, this definitely won't be your mother's Mets anymore.  Instead, there will be frequent peels of thunder in Queens.

Reese Kaplan -- Mets Offseason Roster Bullet List Number Twelve

Mack's Mets will summarize players mentioned as possible new members of the team available via trade or free agency that have popped up in the media associated with them as a part of the 40 man roster.  These bullet points are not necessarily factual as if they were leaked from the Mets front office.  They comprise opinions, rumors and hypotheticals that various Mets beat writers and bloggers have felt necessary to put out into public notice.  Like EPA gas mileage ratings, take the news with a grain of salt.  We share but don’t necessarily endorse any of these transactions.

I’d thought about ending this series of rumors now that Spring Training has started but already there is news to be discussed and considered.

Long Term Need Arises

Word came out on Monday evening that Frankie Montas has a high grade lat strain which will keep him from throwing for pretty much all of Spring Training and then working his way back with a return in perhaps May.  That could mean 8 or more starts without the man signed as a $34 million free agent for reasons many still can’t fathom. 

The alternatives in-house are obvious.  You have Tylor Megill who was in the mix for either a bullpen slot or starting pitcher number 6.  Think of him as the Brett Baty of pitching, never having established himself at the major league level but not a terrible choice either.  He’s sporting a 4.56 ERA over 67 starts and 74 games.  While familiarity works in his favor, the fact he still has a minor league option left does not.

Then comes Griffin Canning who was another scratch-your-head free agent contract.  His career record doesn’t suggest that he would be any better than Montas or Megill, but then he hasn’t had his stint in the Mets pitching laboratory yet.  As a pitcher with a career ERA of 4.78 over the course of 94 starts and 99 games it doesn’t appear as if he offered very much but not his presence as a possible substitute can’t be denied. 

Next up on the 6th starter/bullpen tee is Max Kranick.  While he never appeared for the Mets at the major league level, he did do so for the Pirates.  Well, perhaps the less said, the better.  He came to the Mets with a career 5.56 ERA over 9 starts and 11 games.  In the minors last year at three levels he appeared in 45 games making 8 starts with a 3.82 ERA.  Given that relative success you can see why he’s thinly in the running.

Of course, the rumor mill is alive with Dylan Cease and Michael King wild-assed proposals offering up anyone not slated to be on the Mets 26 man roster in bundle with perhaps 2 others for a rental.  Given the need created by the injury expect that the price has gone up, not down.

Another name that came up quite familiar to the Mets is veteran Jose Quintana who still does not have a 2025 job.  With a career ERA of 3.74 and a 2024 ERA of 3.75, you pretty much know what you’re going to get — a pitcher who is better than Frankie Montas is when he is healthy.  Quintana might be seeking a multiyear deal now, but with no takers and him at age 36 you might snag him on a slight overpay for a single season. 

Look down the list of available free agent starters and a few more names catch your eye.  Kyle Gibson, Patrick Corbin, Andrew Heaney, Lance Lynn and Anthony DeScalfini are still available.  Oh yeah, Trevor Bauer is looking for a job, too.

On the trade front, anyone is possible including soon-to-be ex Yankee and former Met Marcus Stroman.  The pint-sized pot stirrer owns a career 3.72 ERA and is a few years younger than Quintana.  However, he would require a higher paycheck and the sacrifice of player assets to consummate a trade. 

Oh yeah...let’s not forget trade acquisition Paul Blackburn, he of injury recovery status and a career ERA of 4.85.  He kind of makes you yearn for a prompt recover of the career ERA 4.09 Frankie Montas.

Moving On...

This time of the year you tend to see a number of “you never know” types of articles about players not expected to come north with the team.  One such post was about injury-prone Oliver Ortega who can strike people out when healthy, but also has a career ERA just over 4.00. 

Jett Williams was the first injury at Port St. Lucie when he was plunked on the meaty part of the hand but reports are he will miss a few days and nothing major is expected to have come from the HBP. 

Closer Edwin Diaz is happy to be able to work out without any precautionary restrictions as he is 100% healthy.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is his revelation that in 2026 he once again wants to participate in the WBC which cost him his entire 2023 season.

Jose Butto was named a multi inning reliever by manager Carlos Mendoza.  As much as he might help in the starting pitcher mix (particularly now that they are down one) his value in the bullpen does not have a real replacement available to assume that role. 

Starting pitcher Kodai Senga was in the news and not just for his quality first batting practice appearance.  He voiced the opinion that the Mets would do better recruiting Japanese players (pitchers in particular) if they installed a roof to keep rain and cold out of the playing field.  That’s an expensive but interesting notion. 

Word also came out that newly acquired A.J. Minter who was slated to be the primary lefty out of the pen is going to be shut down while continuing to recover from hip surgery though the optimistic word is that it is not a long term thing, merely precautionary.  With few lefties in camp with high potential this loss of Minter could prove a bit harder to swallow than originally thought.

Speaking of injuries, Ronny Mauricio is continuing an extremely slow progress towards recovery which already cost him his 2024 season.  No one expects him to make the opening day roster.

We’ve already covered the second base proposition before the news of Brandon Nimmo’s injury recovery arose.  Right now in addition to Jeff McNeil you have Luisangel Acuna and Brett Baty in the mix along with newcomer Nick Madrigal.  There is no sign of a reunion with Jose Iglesias and Mauricio is not yet 100% healthy.

Starling Marte was in the news a bit this past week about accepting whatever role the team has in mind for him and the club’s transparency about trading him elsewhere that might give him many more innings of playing time than is projected to happen on the Mets.

Multiple places reported the prospect of Francisco Lindor being named the Mets team captain, a role that’s been vacant since David Wright’s retirement. 

Francisco Alvarez reported making some adjustments to his swing based upon advice from veteran All Star and former teammate J.D. Martinez.  Everyone is anxious to see if power can return to his offensive game after a dismal 2024. 

Oh, some guy named Juan Soto showed up in blue with orange trim in Port St. Lucie.  He said the player he’s most excited to see in the lineup is the eleventh hour returning Pete Alonso who does homer at an Aaron Judge rate for his career.  

SAVAGE VIEWS – HOW DID I DO?

  

SAVAGE VIEWS – HOW DID I DO?

About this time a year ago, I played the optimist and projected the Mets would score about 100 more runs than they did in 2023. I forecast that their starting lineup would outperform their 2023 numbers. Boy, was I wrong. However, my guess was that they were a playoff caliber team.

Below is a comparison of my projected 2024 numbers vs actual.

	PROJECTED 2024 ACTUAL 2024 Name BA HRS RBI BA HRS RBI Nimmo 0.287 24 73 0.224 23 90 Marte/Gilbert/Taylor 0.270 18 65 0.269 14 75 Lindor 0.275 32 105 0.273 33 91 Alonso 0.255 48 122 0.240 34 88 McNeil 0.312 15 70 0.234 12 44 Alvarez 0.240 35 80 0.237 11 47 Baty/JDM 0.265 26 75 0.235 20 85 Vientos 0.250 22 70 0.266 27 71 Bader 0.230 12 50 0.226 12 51 Bench 0.220 15 110 21 93 247 820 207 735
	I was way off base with McNeil, Alonso, Nimmo and Alvarez.   On the other hand, my other forecasts were not far off. Also, I see we got some bad news on Montas.  Perhaps it opens up the possibility of Brandon Sproat...  making the team out of spring training.

Ray

February 18, 2025

 

Remember's Ramblings – Volume 2, Article 8

February 18, 2025

 

Score Early, Score Often!

Remember's Warning:   My numbers brain got loose for this article – there is a lot here, but interesting to me.  I really hope I don’t lose you before you have a chance to get to the end.

There was something about the Mets in 2024 that bothered me as the year progressed that I was feeling, but didn’t know the specifics or even if my feelings were valid.    It just seemed to me that the Mets did not get off to an early lead very often and it seemed that they played a lot of catch-up late in games.   

The common knowledge is that a baseball game is nine innings and the team that has the most runs at the end of those nine innings is the winner.    If that was all there was to it, it would seem that it did not matter when all the runs were scored.   But there are games within the games. 

 

To drill down into those games within the game, I broke the scoring down into three-inning segments, plus segregated the first inning by itself, just to see how the team did after one inning, three innings, six innings and nine innings (or the final score if it happened to go into extras). 

The common information that is readily available is the final score record.   The Mets were 89-73 in their 2024 162 game season for a .549 winning percentage. 

Three Inning Games

If games had been just three innings, their final record would have been 63-58-41, or a .521 winning percentage.    This tells me my feelings of playing catch-up were real.  They did play (score) better in innings 4-9 than in innings 1-3.    

As a further breakdown to see how much scoring early in the game matters, in games they were winning after 3 innings (63 games), they went on to win 46 of them (vs. just 17 losses), or a .730 winning percentage.

In games they were losing after 3 innings, they finished them off at 18-40, or a .310 winning percentage.     That tells me that there is a huge advantage to scoring early and grabbing the lead after the first three innings.  

Six Inning Games

If games had been six innings, their record would have been 78-60-24 for a .565 winning percentage.  By the time they got to the sixth, they had caught up more often than not and they should have quit then.   Their six-inning scores yielded a better record than their full game scores – their late inning bullpen work needed to be a little better. 

In games they were winning after 6 innings (78 games), they finished them at 61-17 (.782).   Unfortunately, that was less than half the games they played. 

In games they were losing after 6 innings, their winning percentage was a predicable .200 (12-48).   Fortunately, that scenario occurred in just over one third of their games. 

Score early for best final score results!   The Mets won a creditable 41 games when they came from behind, but wouldn’t it be nice to get that early lead and hold it more often so they didn’t have to do the late game comebacks?       

 Starting a Game Strong

And just because I was curious and it was a snowy weekend with not much else to do, I did a deeper dive to look at just the first inning results.

The Mets scored at least one run in 39 games in the first inning, not quite one in every four games, (which seems a little low to me), although they only gave up runs in the first in 33 games, so they were better than .500 in that regard.

When they did not score in the first inning (123 games), they finished those games with a 62-61 (.504) record.   

When they scored at least one run in the first they finished those games 27-12, or a .692 pace, well above their .549 year-end percentage.    It did not matter whether or not the opponent scored in the first inning to attain that winning percentage.   In fact, their winning percentage was only .008 higher (21-9 or .700) when the Mets scored in the first and they held the opponent scoreless in that same frame.    

When they gave up a run in the first, they were 14-19, or .424, even if they also scored in the first.  In fact, if both teams scored at least one run in the first, the Mets ended those games 6-3, much better than the 8-16 (.333) in games they gave up a run in the first and did not score. 

When they scored more than one run in the first (15 times), they ended the games at 11-4, or .733. 

 The moral of the story is to score in the first inning.

Addendum:  And the extremely good news is that they now have Juan Soto in the line-up with guaranteed at bats in the first inning.  Soto in 2024 had an OBP of .455 and OPS of 1.041 in the first inning.    To contrast that (add to?) the Mets hitters, Francisco Lindor as a leadoff batter most of the year turned in a .351 OBP and .784 OPS, by far the best of the Mets.     Brandon Nimmo’s ugly first inning numbers were just .247 OBP and .456 OPS.   Pete Alonso was marginally better at .267 OBP/.665 OPS.     The team as a whole in the first inning hit to a BA of just .221, with an OBP of .309 and OPS of .677.     Soto should help immensely if the goal is to get off to a better game start so they have a better chance to have the best end result. 

Filling in more of those diamonds on the left side of that scorecard means more victory celebrations! 

Remember's Reminiscing:    February 18 Birthdays

Today we wish a Happy Birthday to Jerry Morales, Kevin Tapani, John Valentin, and Shawn Estes.   Two Mets that have passed away were also born on February 18 - one of the two named Bob Miller and Jeff McKnight.

Paul Articulates - This could be good!

Players have now officially reported to spring training and all is well with last year’s NLDS runners-up. The Mets have Pete back, they have Sean Manaea back, and they have a new guy roaming in right field for the next 15 years. Everyone is happy and excited, especially Carlos Mendoza who welcomed everyone with a smile and a handshake.

So what could go wrong? 

Well, a thousand things could go wrong but I’m not here to talk about that. I did that in last week’s post where I highlighted the five guys who desperately needed to get off to a hot start.

This week I am still talking about ball players’ state of mind, but in a positive light. I think that the Mets hitters will outperform expectations this year for the same reason they have traditionally underperformed. It is all about pressure.  

Pressure does strange things to the mind by cluttering up the thoughts of players that need to have a quiet mind at the plate. You have seen it many times when players are in a slump. You saw it big time last year with Pete when he pressed hard to have a huge season in his walk year and the harder he tried, the worse it got.

This year I think that the Mets have less pressure than ever. Sure, the expectations are high, but they are in a different place now. They have a lineup so deep in hitting talent that no one person has to feel it is up to them to carry the load. 

The power in the lineup like Mark, Pete, and Ally don’t have to feel like they have to hit the next pitch out of the ballpark because they are followed by guys that can deliver hits. That allows them to be looser and more selective. That leads to better counts, which leads to more pitches in the zone, which leads to balls driven hard. Batters in the on-deck circle get excited when they hear the sweet sound of a ball striking the barrel. “I’m next! Gimme some of that!” 

It is all going to spiral upward if any two or three of the hitters in this deep lineup start hot.  I think there is a pretty high probability that will happen because of the work ethic of the guys that David Stearns has assembled on this roster. 

Once it gets started, the game is going to be more fun for all involved. Pitchers can just let it fly if their teammates are putting crooked numbers on the board. They won’t have to worry that one run will sink them, so they don’t have to aim the ball trying to avoid a mistake. Just trust their stuff and let Alvy call the game.

This isn’t typical pre-season optimism. This is built on the confidence these players have in their teammates. You can hear it in every interview this spring. If the guy in front of you and the guy behind you in the lineup is a legitimate threat, you don’t have to press. Step to the plate with a quiet mind and do what you have trained to do since you first wore the uniform.

The Mets are not unique in this way. There are a couple other teams that have the same type of formidable lineups. These teams will be very challenging to beat. But they better not overlook the Mets this season. The Mets will be a team you’ll want to watch.