MACK - MY Sunday Observations

 Good morning.

I have been noticing an enhanced degree of negativity regarding how the Mets are playing so far this spring, so I thought I would spend a few paragraphs here on this subject.

First, it is spring training. This is the time when established players, that are certain to wind up in Queens come April, start the process of getting into game form. Sure, there are off season programs and the Mets would love it if all their stars were working with their trainers, but that just doesn’t happen. They have fat wallets as well as various degrees of fat bodies and time is needed to get ready for the real season. Remember, as the saying goes, fat doesn’t pull muscles.

Locked in 26-man players rarely play true to form out of the box. Have you watched any of the games this spring? Have you watched Juan Soto hit a ground ball? Have you noticed how slow he runs to first? Soto is not going to pull a hammy at this point in spring. That’s not how this works for players you will see play EVERY DAY this year.

What you need to do is calm down and concentrate on the players that are still trying to make the team you love.

Thomas Nestico                 @TJStats

Hey look! @hedgertronic pitched yesterday!

Josh Hejka's unique delivery helps his mid 80s fastball play up and allows his slider to get some of the craziest movement I've seen. Just look at that movement plot!

Top Exit Velocity  -  2025-03-06

MLB - 2025 Top 100 Prospects

https://www.prospectslive.com/2025-top-100-prospects/?s=03

30. Brandon Sproat

HT: 6-3 WT: 215 H/T: R/R

Highest Level: Triple-A

ETA: 2025

OFP: 55

Risk: High

Fastball: 50 - (93-98 mph)

Cutter: 45 - (83-87 mph)

Slider: 50 - (83-86 mph)

Curveball: 40 - (78-82 mph)

Changeup: 60 - (85-87 mph)

Command: 55

The Mets, since the arrival of David Stearns and much of the old Brewers front office, have transformed into a pitching factory, developing and optimizing arms in ways their fans haven't seen before. Their determination to make Brandon Sproat a part of this apparatus was evident, drafting him in back-to-back years. It's easy to see why—his sub-6-foot release point on most pitches, combined with a higher three-quarters arm slot, makes him one of the more intriguing pitching prospects in the minors. While Sproat's fastball boasts plus-plus velocity, it has a suboptimal shape. 

He managed to get by with it at lower levels, but upper-minor hitters have been able to do damage due to its straightness or its "dead-zone" characteristics. Improving its shape could unlock more from his arsenal. His cutter, which plays off the fastball, is below average and suffers from the fastball's lack of movement. However, his slider has solid horizontal break and could be used more effectively. 

Sproat's curveball is a true hammer with plenty of break, making it a weapon down in the zone or early in counts. But the star of his repertoire is the changeup, which features tremendous fading action and is so effective that he confidently uses it against same-handed hitters. Everything but the fastball and cutter looks like it came straight from a pitching lab. If he can improve the shape of his fastball, Sproat has the potential to be a 60 OFP arm. As it stands, the fastball limits him to more of a 55 OFP profile.

Top 10 Best Players in the NL 

East for the 2025 MLB Season -

1. Juan Soto, New York Mets

2024 Stats: 157 G, .288/.419/.569, 41 HR, 109 RBI, 180 wRC+, 8.1 fWAR

Juan Soto is back to where it all started when it comes to the division he played in throughout the early parts of his career. After a year and half spent in the NL West, then one season spent in the Bronx in the AL East, Soto is an NL East player once again.

When looking at the names of the top players in this division, it’s clear that Soto stands out above the rest as the best hitter in the NL East. Bryce Harper can always challenge Soto in any given year, and Ronald Acuña Jr. might bring more to the table when he’s right, but Soto is the one coming off the best year, who is primed to be the best player in the NL East for the 2025 season.

Soto is all-but guaranteed to finish the year with an on-base percentage over .400, 30 or more home runs, and 100 runs driven in. If the Mets are going to make noise in the NL East again, Soto and Lindor are the 1-2 punch that is going to make it happen.

Just Baseball - New York Mets Top 15 Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/new-york-mets-top-15-prospects/?s=03

7. Ryan Clifford – 1B/OF – (Double-A)

Height/Weight: 6’3″, 210 | Bat/Throw: L/R | 11th Round (343), 2022 (HOU) | ETA: 2026

Drafted in the 11th round by the Astros, Clifford signed for second-round money ($1.25 million) to forego his Vanderbilt commitment before being traded alongside Drew Gilbert for Justin Verlander at the 2023 deadline.

Outlook

Clifford’s power potential is his calling card and he has already demonstrated the ability to get into it against upper level pitching, launching 18 home runs in 98 Double-A games in 2024.

While there may be minimal defensive value, Clifford could at least offer some versatility if he can develop into a near-passable defender in right field given his arm value as well.

Ultimately, the Mets are focused on Clifford’s 30 home run upside which the lefty slugger is already well on his way to tapping into if he can hit enough. With a 67% contact rate in 2024, Clifford will need to take a step forward bat to ball wise at the upper levels to get there.

8. Elian Peña – SS – (DSL)

Height/Weight: 5’10″, 185 | Bat/Throw: L/R | IFA: $5M, 2025 (NYM) | ETA: 2029

The centerpiece of the Mets 2025 IFA cycle, Peña accounted for more than 80% of the Mets bonus pool, selling David Stearns and co. on his above average tools across the board and advanced left-handed stroke.

Outlook

Steve Cohen and David Stearns have made it a point to improve the organization’s ability to acquire international talent and made the biggest splash of the 2025 period outside of Roki Sasaki. The Mets will give Peña every opportunity at shortstop, where he has enough going for him to have a chance at sticking.

In the more likely event that he moves over to the hot corner, Peña’s offensive upside is exciting enough to meet the higher offensive bar the position demands and then some.

Medium - The Really Big 2025 Mets Prospects Ranking

https://medium.com/@mdonodeo8/the-really-big-2025-mets-prospects-ranking-5c0fbaaa49f0

6) OF Carson Benge

I detailed Benge pretty heavily in my post-draft report (which you should read, please read it, please), noting the strong plate skills, batted ball angle concerns, and swing changes (among other traits) that give him some positive projection in the batted ball angle department. He showed many of the same traits in Low-A, posting an in-zone contact rate above 90% and limited chase rates, although being more aggressive in the zone could help him unlock more damage. 

He didn’t have enough batted balls for the sample to be totally representative, but in his 50 PA he posted a 102.5 EV90, 105 max EV, and 51% ground ball rate. I expect the max EV to settle more in the 108 range in a larger sample, and the newer swing could point to the ground ball rate being a little higher than we should expect next year, but there are legitimate concerns regarding batted ball angles. Even if 35 BBE isn’t enough of a sample to draw sweeping conclusions from, not one of those were pulled in the air, an issue that has existed since college, even with the improved swing.

Of course, Benge is still a projection bat at this point. He was drafted with the intent of fixing these issues, and his combination of in-season swing changes and status as a draft-eligible sophomore give him a lot of room to get to a more flush point of contact. He’s also very athletic and should be able to get to 110+ mph EVs if he can add some good weight and higher intent during the swing. 

This athleticism transfers to the field — he played a good right field in college and could get some looks in center, and his history as a pitcher should serve him well regardless of where in the outfield he ends up. He’ll be a good test for a Mets’ hitting development system that seems to be in a place of overhaul. If they can unlock some batted ball angles, there’s potential for him to be a global top 50-caliber prospect.

Scouting Grades: 60 hit, 35/55 power, 50 run, 55 field, 55 arm

Optimistic comp: Lars Nootbaar

7) IF Luisangel Acuña

Acuña might be the player who has undergone the most changes in placements on this entire list. He’s ending up on the higher side of this range, a combination of me coming around on some potential tweaks and souring a bit on some players behind him. This potential tweak comes from toning down a hitch in the load, although the significant issues of his pre-swing torso drift still pop up. 

This drift has led to inconsistent points of contact, which in turn has led to very unoptimized batted ball angles — a 55% ground ball rate and 3.7% pulled fly ball rate in AAA. 

Another factor for these poor sprays is the amount of contact outside of the zone, with a mid-30s chase rate will lead to a lot of unoptimized balls in play. Despite the chase issues, the hit tool is still a 50 to me, as he’s also aggressive in the zone with an upper-80s zone contact rate in AAA, above average for the level, especially considering the chase rate. 

There’s also 50 raw power with his 103 EV90 and 109 max EV, so in theory there is a path to productive offensive output. This appeared to come to fruition in a brief MLB stint at the end of the season, and while there might be some signal in him pulling a ball in the air at 109, the sample is too small to take much away from and the .301 xwOBA paints a less rosy picture than the raw results. 

There is some wiggle room with the bat — especially for a ground ball heavy approach — because he is an electric baserunner who can beat out throws from the infield and turn singles into doubles. The athleticism translates into defensive value, where he projects to be good at short and great at second, despite a poor showing in Davenport runs. He’s also gotten some run in center field, which makes sense due to his speed.

Overall, this becomes a very weird profile. He has obvious offensive markers and athletic tools that could point to a high ceiling, but the swing issues resulted in a mere 70 wRC+ in AAA (it’s possible that any fly ball hit 95+ leaving the yard had an adverse effect on ground ball hitters that won’t exist to the same extent in the majors, but it’s not great regardless.) 

He spent the 2024 season as a 22 year old, so he’s young enough to still project gains, but the swing has made its way through a lot more pro levels than someone like Benge. This isn’t a death sentence — we just saw Mark Vientos make swing improvements in his age-24 season in the majors — but it makes it harder to project those improvements. 

I think the likeliest outcome here is a MLB-ready utility player who plays mostly second base and center with some backup shortstop innings, although there is a fairly wide range of outcomes depending on swing development. Even the WAR outputs might differ a ton, as guys with this level of defensive value will see vastly different WAR outputs depending on your defensive measurement system of choice. If he can make the proper swing changes (as well as trading some contact for damage), there is the upside of posting model-dependent three-plus win seasons. It remains to be seen if he gets there.

Scouting Grades: 50 hit, 40/50 power, 70 run, 60 field, 50 arm

Optimistic Comp: 2024 Andres Gimenez