MACK - My Thursday Observations

 

Good morning.

***IMPORTANT***

Thank you John From Albany for downloading the new 2025 Mets media guide on this site.

You will find it on the right sidebar just below the last five featured posts.

So… it all comes down to this. My overall prediction this season as to where the Mets will finish.

The Mets have improved this season, but so has other teams. The only reason the Mets aren’t better than the Dodgers is the fact that the Dodgers are better than the Mets. The Phillies may have the best rotation in baseball while the Braves improved simply through healing injuries.

I predict that the Braves will win the NL East, while both the Phils and Mets will make the playoffs via wild cards. It doesn’t matter who comes in second or third in the division. That’s as important as the words said by the second and third person who stepped on the moon.

Frankly, it also doesn’t matter who faces the Dodgers in the NL playoffs. That 26 could beat the 27 Yankees.

I also think we are entering a new era where the Mets rotations will be dominated by team controlled draft picks and international signings. This is going to make it much easier to overpay for future bats and put great rugs on that casino floor.

Mets Facing Backlash for Decision Announced on Sunday

https://athlonsports.com/mlb/new-york-mets/mets-facing-backlash-for-decision-announced-on-sunday

The Mets changed Citi's "Piazza Club" into the "Heineken Diamond Lounge," which fans aren't happy about.

"Mets really removed a Piazza themed club for this??" one person asked.

"Disgusting," another fan wrote.

"BOOOOOOOOOOOO," a fan exclaimed.

"That’s ridiculous and an insult to Piazza," a fan added.

Piazza, a 2016 Baseball Hall of Fame inductee, player for New York from 1998-2005. The former catcher slashed .296/.373/.542 with 220 homers and 655 RBI as a Met. He also hit at least 33 home runs each year between '99 and '02, including 40 in '99.

Eno Sarris’ updated MLB starting pitcher rankings for the 2025 season

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6211367/2025/03/21/sarris-mlb-starting-pitcher-rankings-fantasy-baseball/

#57        Tylor Megill

103 Stuff+

3.7 ppERA

With all the injuries the Mets' rotation has suffered already, Tylor Megill looks to be a lock to be in the Opening Day rotation. With the way Stuff+ likes all of his pitches, he might just be a lock to stay in the rotation all season. He does have inconsistent velocity, and the command hasn't been top-notch just yet, but it's a well-rounded arsenal with multiple fastballs (a Mets trademark at this point) and secondary pitches that are good enough to drive him further up the rankings as he pitches.

 

#78                 Sean Manaea

99 Stuff+

3.86 ppERA

Dropping down to a Chris Sale arm slot helped Sean Manaea improve the stuff on his fastballs and led to a 19-start stretch with a 3.10 ERA and good peripherals. That's something most of the projection systems might be missing, but it's also possible to overrate that type of change and just assign post-adjustment numbers as "real" going forward. First, that kind of radical arm slot change could put pressure on his mechanics and lead to adverse health outcomes. Second, the slot change did not improve his mediocre changeup. Split the difference and pay for a low fours ERA and maybe you'll profit.

Bowden’s 2025 All-MLB Breakout Team: A 26-man roster of promising players to watch

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6219550/2025/03/21/mlb-breakout-predictions-2025/

Clay Holmes, RHP, Mets

Age: 31

Height: 6-5 Weight: 240

I don’t usually put a 31-year-old pitcher on my breakout team, but it’s also not typical for a former closer and set-up reliever to be converted into a starter and then named an Opening Day starter, but that’s what has happened to Holmes. I’m never going to bet against Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns or manager Carlos Mendoza, who were convinced Holmes could make the transition to the rotation and succeed this year. The Mets were aware of Holmes’ above-average changeup, which he just didn’t need to throw as a reliever, and he’s also added a cutter to give him another weapon against left-handed hitters. Opening Day will be his first major-league start in seven years. The Mets bet $38 million over three years that Holmes can be a successful starter, and I’m jumping on the bandwagon.

Seven New York Mets minor league arms to watch in 2025

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/seven-new-york-mets-minor-league-arms-to-watch-in-2025

4. Blade Tidwell, RHP [No. 16 ranked prospect]

Blade Tidwell has impressed in spring training this year. At one point, there had been whispers that Tidwell might be better suited as a reliever, not to mention he struggled with 53 walks in 85 innings for Syracuse last year.

That said, Tidwell's command and velocity (99 mph fastball) have been on point in camp this spring. Tidwell is a starter and has shown enough promise to be considered a part of the Mets' long-term plan. He will reside in Triple-A once the 2025 minor league season kicks off.

Just Baseball - New York Mets Top 15 Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/new-york-mets-top-15-prospects/?s=03

Other Names to Consider

 

Yovanny Rodriguez – C – (DSL): A $2.85 million pay day and rave reviews from scouts created plenty of hype for the Venezuelan catcher, but he stumbled out of the gate in his pro debut. His impressive defensive skill set did not immediately translate while posting a .715 OPS at the DSL. Rodriguez has the defensive tools to be a big league catcher.

Medium - The Really Big 2025 Mets Prospects Ranking

https://medium.com/@mdonodeo8/the-really-big-2025-mets-prospects-ranking-5c0fbaaa49f0

 

16) Trey Snyder

Snyder was another 2024 draftee who barely played in 2024. I originally called him the third best player in the class, before Dohm kept growing on me and Serrano started swinging harder, but it’s still a fun profile that should see low-A next year. In 26 PA in low-A, he showed a more passive approach than in high school, made some contact, and didn’t hit the ball hard, but this wasn’t enough of a sample to take away much, so here’s the draft report:

“A staple of recent Kris Gross drafts has been damage-driven overslot prep batters in the 1–2 million dollar range (think Ryan Clifford), and Snyder fits that bill for the Mets this year. He doesn’t have the plus or better power projection that Clifford has out of high school, but generates decent bat speed with more room to fill out his frame. He’s already posted consistent 100+ mph EVs in batting practice, so I think there’s average or better raw power down the road. It’s a fairly smooth swing that produced solid contact numbers on the circuit, although the aggressive approach could get exploited more in pro ball. He’s a decent runner and has some athleticism in the infield, so range shouldn’t be a question. The arm grades out well too, but in my limited looks there was a lot of effort at release, so second base might be the long term home. Either way, he should provide value in the field while displaying a power/contact profile at the plate. Being from Missouri didn’t help him in terms of notoriety on the public side, but it’s a fun profile with a combination of floor and upside.”

 

17) Boston Baro

Baro was an overslot 8th rounder who stands out for having some of the better plate skills in the low minors. He posted an 86% z-contact rate in 2024, right in line with the MLB average, and doesn’t expand the zone much, although he is pretty passive in zone. It’s a fluid swing with a Jeff-McNeil-ish bat path that has been cleaned up since his high school days, but his passivity means he only swings at balls he’s comfortable with. When combined with his barrel control, this leads to elite sweet spot rates, and likely some of the tightest launch angle standard deviations in the system because of that. Consistently making line drive contact will be important because the exit velocities have not come as much as you’d want by now, as he averaged a 99 EV90 and 104.4 max EV. There is still remaining projectability in his frame, but he’s already added some weight, so the top end of his potential power outcomes don’t seem as likely. Even without that, his combination of contact, line drives, and positional versatility at second or third could point to a future as a second-division regular or utility bat.