MACK - MY Tuesday Obvervations

 

The Athletic - What the Mets’ rotation will look like in the early season

(sub)  https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6207728/2025/03/16/mets-early-season-pitching-plans/

 The Mets’ rotation for the first week of the season is taking shape.

After Clay Holmes on Opening Day, the Mets plan to go with a pair of right-handers in Houston, most likely Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning. David Peterson is in line to start the series opener in Miami, followed by Kodai Senga.

The Athletic Mailbag –

Is Stearns’ strategy of reconstructing the rotation every year sustainable over the long term? — Jay L.

Tim: My high school history teacher once assigned us an essay with the prompt “The Progressive Era wasn’t.” He argued that the Progressive Era wasn’t progressive, and it also wasn’t exactly an era.

Your question reminded me of this, Jay, because while I don’t think reconstructing the rotation every year is especially sustainable, I also don’t think it’s Stearns’ strategy. We talked about his ideal organization above, and a big part of that will be incorporating younger players into the rotation soon. (While the starters closest to the bigs had a rough go of it in 2024, Sproat, Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong all opened eyes last summer.) If the Mets are still signing three or four starters next winter and the winter beyond that, well, the plan has gone awry.

Furthermore, Stearns aggressively pursued Yoshinobu Yamamoto two winters ago to headline the rotation. I would expect that, eventually, he’ll sign a front-line starter to a nine-figure contract.

The rotation reconstruction plan could work in the short term if the Mets continue to maximize the talents of that staff. Jeremy Hefner and Co. certainly did that last year with Sean Manaea and Severino. But you can already see the perils of it this year, with Manaea and Frankie Montas on the shelf.

The Athletic - Which Mets prospects are poised to break out in 2025? Meet 5 under-the-radar candidates

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6192476/2025/03/11/new-york-mets-breakout-prospects-2025/?onboarded=true   (sub needed)

A.J. Ewing, 2B/CF

Highest level reached in 2024: Low A

In 186 plate appearances over June and July last year, Ewing hit a combined .196 with a .586 OPS and a 32.7 percent strikeout rate.

Then, in 117 plate appearances over August and September, Ewing hit .277 with a .855 OPS and a 23.9 percent strikeout rate.

The improvement was no fluke.

Toward the end of the season, Ewing worked on his swing with Nicolaisen to improve his contact. Making consistent contact long loomed as an issue for him; he often hit balls hard and in the air but swung-and-missed too often for it to matter much. By the end of last season, however, the Mets’ internal batted-ball metrics continued to point upward along with more overall contact after his swing changes.

The Mets drafted Ewing, 20, in the fourth round of the 2023 amateur draft. Rival scouts have long appreciated his athleticism and instincts. He has worked extensively this spring with new Mets director of defense/base running Tucker Frawley on converting plays in the infield. The Mets plan to play him mostly at second base and center field in 2025, but Ewing might see some action in the corner outfield spots, too.

“He is quick to adapt,” Christie said. “He can make changes when changes are asked.”

Mets looking for top prospects to complement veteran stars

https://www.mlb.com/news/new-york-mets-spring-training-prospect-report-2025?partnerID=web_article-share

What’s new: Jonah Tong

Tong was an under-the-radar Canadian prepster who went down to the Georgia Premier Academy for more exposure. Mets scout Marlin McPhail did a terrific job identifying him and making sure he was followed through Tong’s stint in the MLB Draft League in 2022 against much older competition. The Mets took him in the seventh round and he pitched sparingly in his first full season. But in 2024, he took off, pitching across three levels (up to Double-A) and finishing with a 3.03 ERA and an organization-leading 160 strikeouts.

Now he’s doing something to get even better. Currently the No. 6 prospect in the system, Tong showed glimpses of an effective changeup, but he didn’t throw it that much. Now he’s tweaking how he holds and delivers the cambio -- and the early returns have been excellent.

“He did a really good job selling the changeup, but it didn’t have much separation in terms of vertical break off the fastball,” Christie explained. “He’s worked hard with some of our guys down here to refine the grip and it’s been promising so far. It’s to tap into his natural bias in terms of how he releases the ball. ... He’s more naturally prone to supinating the baseball, so instead of trying to turn over a changeup, we’re just trying to utilize the seams to get the ball to drop and not necessarily try to over pronate and force it to go the other way.”

Just Baseball - New York Mets Top 15 Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/new-york-mets-top-15-prospects/?s=03  

15. Marco Vargas – 2B – (Low-A)

Height/Weight: 6’0″, 175 | Bat/Throw: L/R | IFA: $17,500, 2022 (MIA) | ETA: 2028

Acquired by the Mets along with catcher Ronny Hernandez from the Marlins in exchange for David Robertson at the 2023 deadline, Vargas was one of the more impressive hitters in the Florida Complex League that season before his 2024 campaign was cut short due to a wrist issue.

Vargas has a smooth swing from the left side and an advanced feel for the strike zone, running a chase well below 20% at the lower levels. The power is below average, but Vargas hits the ball hard enough to find the gaps with an average exit velocity that climbed to nearly 88 MPH in 2024, even with the aforementioned wrist issue disrupting his season.

Walking more than he has struck out through his first 144 pro games, Vargas has the ingredients to be a solid on-base base threat, but there is plenty of pressure on his hit tool to carry him as he provides minimal value beyond his on-base skills.

Vargas should be an average defender at second base with fringy speed. If the hit tool can progress to above average, he could hit and walk his way into becoming a second-division regular at second base.

Medium - The Really Big 2025 Mets Prospects Ranking

https://medium.com/@mdonodeo8/the-really-big-2025-mets-prospects-ranking-5c0fbaaa49f0  

20) Blade Tidwell

Tidwell has a weird combination of having a starter’s arsenal, but one that might not really work as a starter. It’s a six-ish pitch mix (depending on slider classification), headlined by a four seam fastball that sits in the mid 90s and gets up to 98, albeit with 16 vert from a high release and middling extension limiting the efficacy of the pitch. 

He worked in a sinker which doesn’t move a ton in a vacuum at 11/16, but likely grades out as the slightly better pitch due to the release traits, and it got a lot of ground balls when it was used. They will likely be used largely based on platoon matchups, although I would try to throw more sinkers to righties. The best part of Tidwell’s arsenal is the general group of sliders. 

They exist on a spectrum from a cutter at 88 with around 5/-5 shape, to a mid-80s standard slider with varying vertical profiles, to a sweeper in the low 80s with lift and above average sweep. Long term, I find it hard to see the downer slider playing as big of a role in his arsenal, as each of the cutter and sweeper can take care of either handedness, and both could be above average. 

He rounds out the arsenal with a depthy changeup that didn’t coax many swings but got ground balls when it did, and a curve that would work better as a strike stealer if he didn’t miss above the zone with it so much.

Despite the deep pitch mix, there are some reliever markers here, as the command can waver, especially with the secondaries, and the entire delivery feels a little off — the arms can be late and the limited hip mobility creates the higher release. He worked some to address these issues in the spring — the release is higher to coax more carry, and an overhead windup could be a useful timing mechanism — but I wouldn’t expect these issues to just go away. 

I wouldn’t rush to move him out of the rotation, but everything might play up a little more if he can just be a fastballs-cutter-sweeper guy sitting 96–97 instead of 94–95, and it might be the easiest path to MLB playing time.

Other Names to Consider

Nate Dohm – RHP – (CPX): Dohm was off to a fantastic start to his junior season with Mississippi State, before an arm injury wiped out most of his season.

The 6-foot-4 right-hander pitched to a 1.23 ERA in 29 1/3 innings, striking out 37 against just three walks in what was mostly non-conference play. Dohm works down on the mound well, generating above-average carry from a below-average release height with a fastball that has sat in the mid 90s when he is healthy. 

He leans on the fastball heavily (nearly 70% usage) as his gyro slider, curveball and changeup lag behind. Health and development of his secondaries will be important to monitor as Dohm enters pro ball.

Jim Koenigsberger            @Jimfrombaseball

"Lou Gehrig had one advantage over me. He was a better ballplayer."

Gil Hodges

 

Vince Guerrieri                  @vinceguerrieri

"He could have played first base barehanded but wore a mitt because it was fashionable.”

-- Pee Wee Reese on Gil Hodges

 

Super 70s Sports               @Super70sSports

Nolan Ryan’s ERA was 3.09 the year the Beatles’ White Album came out.

It was 2.91 the year Nirvana released

Nevermind.