Right up front, this article is about the Hall of Famer Frank Thomas, not the 1962 Met by the same name who resoundingly ripped 34 HRs and knocked in 94, both numbers being Mets records not eclipsed until many years thereafter.
Not that the older Frank Thomas was bad, but the newer Frank Thomas was a much better hitter, in point of fact a no-doubt Hall of Famer.
At the age of 22, the Big Hurt hit a remarkable .330 over 60 games.
In the 10 years that followed, through his age 32 season, he hit well over .300, with an OBP far above .400 and tons-of extra base hits, runs and RBIs. Look up his stats for yourself….WOW!
Following that gem of a 10 season stretch, over the next 8 seasons, he had a few very good seasons, but the average seasonal offensive output in those 8 years very much paled in comparison to the prior 10 seasons.
Pete Alonso has had 6 exceptional Mets years, collectively, but with far lower batting averages and OBPs than Big Frank had in his prime.
Pete is in his age 30 year. Two more years thereafter to reach his age 32 season, after which Frank Thomas started to decline. As did Albert Pujols and Ken Griffey Jr., both of whom were great, and unquestionably better than Pete.
Hence Pete’s contract challenges after 2025, even if he has a great year.
Age related decline is a statistically well-established fact.
And one that owners are hesitant to bankroll.
LAST NIGHT
We hoped last night that Brandon Sproat would pitch with great gusto, especially since his opposing pitcher was named Ryan Gusto.
Well, Gusto was wild but put up zeros. Sproat meanwhile allowed 4 hits, a walk, and 2 runs in 2 IP, with 2 Ks.
I stopped watching in the 6th inning, down 5-1. Vientos the right offensive light with 3 for 3. Edwin Diaz was not impressive, but he doesn’t need to be for another 3 weeks. In 3 weeks, he better be.
OK, I peeked back. They lost 5-1.
ADDENDUM
What spring would be complete without thoughts of Tom Szapucki who, when he was drafted many felt would be another Steve Matz. But could never stay healthy.
His current status is:
Szapucki will not be in big-league camp as part of the deal and will likely open the year in the upper minors. He was once a prominent Mets pitching prospect, but arm injuries have hampered Szapucki's ability to settle into a role in the majors.
So far the Mets 26 have used these games as an opportunity to work out their kinks
ReplyDeleteFor those of you disappointed so far... this is what veteran players are supposed to do
Szapucki made his pro debut in 2015, and has logged just 278.2 innings in the minors and majors (just 18.2 of those innings) in that span. Drafted out of high school, he will turn 29 in June. Will 2025 be the charm?
ReplyDeleteNo
DeleteIMHO
Szapuk is zaput
I went for the head fake….. when I first read Frank Thomas, I assumed the older one. He was more known for his homeruns and low batting average. But, I looked him up and he didn’t have nearly the amount of homeruns I presumed. But, the younger Thomas is more like Soto with the high OBP that Alonso. Alonso may not be on a Hall of Fame tract, but he is still a very good player.
ReplyDeleteIn fact Frank Thomas is the perfect case study to discuss if Soto opts out in five years at age 30, because until 32, Thomas was amazing, way better than Soto!! But then after that, downhill fast.
DeleteGus, another Soto comp that lines up with your analysis? Pujols.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if body type affects decline, but the Big Hurt is a giant of a man, as is Pujols. Soto is smaller in stature, maybe causing less damage to joints and tendons. Just a hunch
ReplyDeleteJon G, hopefully Soto will be a superior version of Freddie Freeman, who has had lasting power.
ReplyDeleteLet's all remember these comments and comparisons when everyone is clamoring to sign Vladdy. That was my point for the very beginning. Can you imagine giving him a 14 year contract.
ReplyDeleteI at least have confidence that Soto will give at least 10 good years.
If and when will Vlad turn to Flab?
ReplyDeleteI can't think of Frank Thomas anymore without thinking about him hawking male enhancement pills on TV. Too bad he couldn't have had today's contracts back then - he would not have to revert to selling himself for cash.
ReplyDeleteSNY article included this about Vlad contract expectations, which are apparently far lower than Soto. The years, of course, do not make sense - I'd think 12 years, $550 million might be the final amount, unless he has a bad 2025: "It's much less than Soto," Guerrero told the outlet. "We're talking about many fewer millions than Soto, more than a hundred million less. ... It was the same number of years [as Soto's contract], but it didn't reach [$600 million]. The last number we gave them as a counteroffer didn't reach 600.
ReplyDelete"I know the business. I lowered the salary demands a bit, but I also lowered the number of years. ... I'm looking for 14 [years]. I would like 14, 15, even 20 if they give them to me, but doing it the right way."
SNY commentary on Sproat outing:
ReplyDelete“I thought he was good, threw strikes, stayed on the attack,” Mendoza said. “Got swing and misses… the sweeper was good. Probably got a little tired that first time he goes for a third time up, but I thought he was good overall.”
In the third, Sproat walked Guillorme on six pitches before allowing a smashed single (104.8 mph off the bat) to Cooper Hummel that had the skipper up for a pitching change. But the hard-thrower showed off the skillset that's building excitement, throwing 16 pitches faster than 95 mph and topping out at 97.7 mph. “It’s tough not to be impressed,” David Stearns said of Sproat ahead of Thursday’s start.
Tom, I think in 5 years max he will start turning to flab. He wants 14 years. There is no way he should get more than a 10 year...with a weight clause.
ReplyDeleteI believe he will deteriorate quickly after 32.
Joe P, the Big Girth?
ReplyDeleteVery nice...as long as he's not our big girth
ReplyDeleteHope Ryan Clifford has a big year.
ReplyDeleteRay, I have a sneaking suspicion Ryan Clifford needs a year and a half to 2 more years to prove he is ready. I hope I am way off.
ReplyDelete