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4/25/25

Reese Kaplan -- How Sabermetrics Changed Lineup Construction


For many of us who have been watching baseball addictively since we were young children, there have been a great many changes to the game.  Yes, we now have Designated HItters in both leagues.  We have the silly overtime rule with a runner on second base to start the 10th inning.  We have pitch clocks.  We have a variety of other major and minor changes that affect how a club puts together its lineup and its game plan.

What is perhaps a bit slower for us to resolve in our heads is how batting orders are now created as compared to say 30 years ago.  If you grade players on various offensive abilities on a scale of 1-5 with ratings being assigned for their batting average, their home run power, their ability to draw walks and how well they steal bases, it would appear that lineups are now constructed very differently. 

Look no further than the current New York Mets lineup to see that they took a guy who is a positive across the board in all of these categories and inserted him not in the middle-of-the-lineup run producing position, but instead you have Francisco Lindor leading off games which means his first at-bat is a bit of a giveaway in terms of driving in runners. 

If you look back to Mets lineups of the past you had guys who were speed burners as your leadoff hitter — Roger Cedeno, Rickey Henderson, Mookie Wilson and others of that ilk.  True, Henderson had some home run power, but the others were there for their ability to get on base and cause stress to the opposing pitcher, catcher and defense once they arrived at first. 

Nowadays the more one dimensional hitters have moved further down in the lineup where they can still provide on base talent and base running havoc but they are not being asked to set the table as they once were.

Look again at the current Mets lineup and the $765 million dollar man is not batting cleanup, but instead is inserted at the number two position in the order.  While these changes for Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor mean they come up more frequently, often at the start of games it also means there is no one on base for them to help score.  In the past you would have seen high contact hitters in the number two slot, but that trend has faded away.

Interestingly Pete Alonso who was never known for his batting average nor his ability to get on base nor formidable running speed has now been pushed into the number three slot in the order where in the past you’d typically slot your best overall hitter but not necessary the guy on whom you count for the long balls.  Ironically he is hitting for a higher average than ever before during April.

Then after Alonso you had a mix of Mark Vientos, Jesse Winker and others taking the cleanup position which was even stranger given their poor batting averages and run production early in the 2025 season.   


Another change is in the bottom of the order which nowadays is regarded as what was once the leadoff and second place hitters.  They are there to get on base, run the bases and provide RBI opportunities for your superstar number one and number two hitters.

Oddly, though, for a club struggling to hit and drive in runs the club currently has the best record in baseball, so maybe there is something to these new lineup permutations. 

8 comments:

  1. They simply are trying to make sure the Mets get extra ABs each game from the elite trio, rather than wasting them on scufflers. If the scufflers started pounding that could change. As poorly as several on the team have hit, they are averaging 4.2 runs per game. I think this team is built to score 5 runs per game. Hopefully, with the warm up, they will score 5 per game from here on out.

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  2. Thet have FUBARed baseball. For those who might not be familiar with the saying. F' ed Up Beyond Recognition. The only change that might actually be good for the game was the pitch clock. I was getting tired of 4 hour games. If they really go to robot umps, that might be the last straw.

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  3. As far as lineup construction. I am not really a proponent of the current way they are constructing the batting order these days. The best hitter on the team should bat 3rd, followed by the best power hitter on the team. It was called clean-up for a reason.

    Unfortunately, we don't have the prototypical leadoff hitter on the team. What's that...we had Nimmo and his .380+ OBP until someone screwed with him. Follow by Lindor, Soto, Alonso and last year's version of Vientos...devastating.

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  4. Francisco Lindor is the 2020's answer to Rickey Henderson. Nobody is running like Henderson did in his heyday, but Lindor has the team lead in SBs in both '23 and '24 and can swat a get-away HR occasionally. Leave him at the top.

    I don't know why I am wrong in thinking that the best version of Nimmo is in the #2 hole followed by Soto and Alonso.

    I am not sure why you think the #8 and 9 slots are the new #1 and 2. 8 and 9 have always been and still are the black hole of the line up.

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  5. One rule I like is the runner on base in extra innings. Why? NO TEAM these days is built for an 18 inning game. Not to mention 23 or 24 inning games, which the Mets have had. But I would prefer the 10th and 11th innings start with a man on first, not second. If the game continues to the 12th inning, it is fine to go to second base then. Pitching staffs barely get by now.

    I wonder how many total extra innings baseball-wide there were in 2024 as compared to, say, 1984. My guess is at least 1500 fewer innings. How many devastating arm injuries does that preclude?

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  6. 69, I mentioned the 8th & 9th position for a stacked team. This way you have men on base in front of Lindor and Soto in the current configuration.

    Tom, as much as I dislike the extra runner in extra innings, I can see your point. I really have no interest in watching 18-20 inning games. I would prefer starting the runner on 1B also.

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  7. I do not like the extra runner anywhere. I am a fan of managing your pitching staff and have pitchers actually pitch. The current game has them throwing as hard as they can for as long as they can - usually about 5 innings max. I hate that part. I have no issue with a well played and well managed 16 or 18 inning game once in a while.

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  8. Like I said, I'm not a fan of the extra runner myself. But if it must be I would go with the runner on first.

    I also hate the current 5 inning starters. Why are we paying so much money to starters 25M+ when they only go 5 innings. They should be paid like relievers 10-12m. The 25+M should be saved for guys that go 7+ innings/200 inn per year.

    You are seeing a method to Stearn's madness in developing a pitching staff.

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