Where Should The Prospects End Up At The
End Of The Season - Starters
We all have our own speculations on this
matter. I only have one. Mine.
Prospects tend to always go up the
chain, yet sometimes they are blocked, even by non-prospect players. This never
made sense to me. If you have a killer second base prospect literally with
nothing to prove at, say, the AA level, and the player in AAA at your position
is not only under-preforming, but years over the age of consideration for
Queens, why not send that person down to AA and make room for the stud in
making?
No position in the Mets chain has more
blockage than the Mets starters. This really starts from the current team. You
currently have one of the top rotations in the league and you have more
seasoned veterans that will join them after their rehab sessions.
I happen to think this will keep Nolan McLean in Syracuse this
season. I think what he does in the next 60 days will prove he should end the
season in Queens, but there simply will not be any room for him.
I think both Blade Tidwell and Brandon Sproat will be given the rest
of this season to right their ships in Syracuse, but Jonah Tong will join them before
too long. He will be joined shortly after that by Jack Wenninger from AA.
If Tidwell and Sproat fail, they will
join Dom Hamel as possible future Mets pen members. McLean,
Tong, and the returning Christian Scott will create an even
more complicated positive problem for the Mets next season.
Barring injuries, I expect Syracuse is
done here for this season. Season end rotation: McLean, Tong, Wenninger,
Tidwell, and Sproat.
Zach Thornton, Jonathan Pintaro, and Joander Suarez will stay in Binghamton
this season, but here is where it gets tricky. Currently, there are seven
starters in Brooklyn. Nate Dohm has only pitched and
started in four games, so he looks to return to the Cyclones in 2026. Jonathan Santucci has struggled keeping
his ERA below 5.00, so I see him joining Dohm. No one can be developed slower
than Matt Allan so he would be starter #3 in the Cyclone
rotation.
This leaves Noah Hall, R.J. Gordon, Joel Diaz, Brendan Girton fighting it out for two
Binghamton slots. If the others stay in Brooklyn, that rotation would be
blocked for St. Lucie starters like Will Watson, Edgar Moreta, Ethan Lanthier, Wellington Arecena, and Franklin Gomez. These just represent the
current Lucy starters with considerable starts and an ERA below 4.00.
St. Lucie will have to make room for David Hurtado and Josue Guevara from the FCL team and a
plethora of newbies being drafted.
All of this is a good problem but it
seems to me that there will be considerable future loss to the pens, the
Rule 5 Draft, trades, or designated assignments.
Top 100 MLB Prospects for 2025
https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/top-100-mlb-prospects/
70. Jonah Tong – RHP – New York Mets
Height/Weight: 6’1″, 180 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 7th Round (209), NYM (2022) | ETA: 2026
FASTBALL Curveball Slider Changeup COMMAND FV
60/60 50/50 40/45 60/70 40/45 45
Tong was the breakout arm in the Mets system for 2024, riding a nearly two tick leap with his fastball to a 3.03 ERA in 113 IP with a ridiculous 34% strikeout rate across mostly Low and High-A. The stuff has been even better in 2025, catapulting Tong into the conversation with some of the better pitching prospects in the upper minors.
Arsenal
A unique, over-the-top release and slight cross-fire delivery make Tong an uncomfortable at-bat for hitters. Tong enjoyed another uptick with his fastball in 2025, now averaging 95 MPH the pitch plays up further for Tong as he averages more than 19 inches of induced vertical break from a release height slightly above six feet.
With the carry and deception, Tong dominates within the zone, generating elite whiff rates, while also getting chase at the top. An even bigger development than the uptick in velocity has been Tong’s changeup in 2025. Sitting in the mid 80s, the pitch is difficult to pick up out of his hand. It averages roughly 20 inches of total separation from the fastball, one of the highest marks in MiLB.
Tong’s downer curve ball in the upper 70s flashes above average, but his inconsistent feel for it makes it difficult to rely on. When he is able to locate it, it’s a strong third offering.
Tong made progress with a mid 80s slider in 2024, mostly utilizing it against righties with success, but he will tend to tug it glove side too frequently. The development of his changeup and effectiveness of it right on right has cut into the usage further and much like his curveball, Tong has really struggled to land it consistently.
Outlook
Yet another fastball uptick paired with what now could be a double plus changeup has elevated Tong significantly. When he’s on, there’s few arms in the minor leagues more effective and overpowering. He will need to find more consistency with his spin and overall command to reach his potential as a starter, still fighting to stay above an overall strike rate of 60%. He has middle-rotation upside, but there’s still some reliever risk with the right-hander.
Eno Sarris’ MLB starting pitcher rankings for the
rest of 2025
#71 David Peterson
90 Stuff+ 3.89 ppERA
Stuff+ 90
Location+ 100
Pitching+ 94
Health 85%
Proj. IP 157
ppERA 3.89
ppK% 22.0%
Pete Alonso is red-hot
again
Pete Alonso provided a bright spot Thursday: He went
3-for-4 with a home run and provided the Mets’ lone RBI with runners in scoring
position. After the Dodgers opted to intentionally walk Juan Soto to put runners on first and second with one out in
the eighth inning, Alonso hit a single.
Alonso’s OPS is back up to a sizzling .973 with 15 home
runs.
Through five games in June, Alonso has four home runs.
The key takeaway here is Alonso’s ability to keep a slump
at a minimum. After starting the season looking like the league’s best hitter
with improved discipline, Alonso recently stumbled. Over a 15-game stretch from
May 6 to May 23, he went 9-for-59 (.153 batting average) with 25 strikeouts and
just four walks. He is going to slump, just as all hitters do. But if Alonso is
really in store for the big season that his March/April promised, it’s going to
come down to him being able to stop a slide from becoming a prolonged cold
stretch — something of a bugaboo for him in previous seasons.
MLB
Prospects Who Just Missed Our Top 100 Update
https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/prospects-mlb-just-missed-the-top-100-update/
AJ Ewing – UTIL – Mets
Affiliate: Brooklyn Cyclones – High-A
A fourth-rounder in 2023, Ewing turned in a decent first
pro season, but there was far too much whiff in his game for a speedy utility
type. Ewing has looked like a completely different hitter this year, with a
contact rate that has jumped from 68% in Low-A to 83% in High-A while hitting
the ball harder.
Ewing is a plus runner and has made it a point to wreak havoc on the base paths this season, already stealing 39 bags on 43 tries through 47 games. It helps when you get on base at a .450 clip, but Ewing looks even quicker than he did in his first pro season and that is evident in the outfield as well.
The Mets are giving Ewing reps in all three outfield
spots as well as second base, with center field being his primary spot in 2025.
If he can improve his reads and routes some and continue to maintain these
offensive gains, Ewing’s stock should continue to rise.
Teams Who Have the Most in Reserve on the Injured List
https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/five-mlb-teams-most-in-reserve-on-injured-list/
New York Mets: The Mets are rolling right now, but that
doesn’t mean they don’t have a lot of talent that’s hurt. Each of the three
position players they have that are injured don’t leave big holes in the
lineup, but the pitching is harder to ignore. Frankie
Montas and Sean Manaea were supposed
to play key roles in the club’s rotation, but they’ve each been out since
February. There are also four relievers – highlighted by A.J. Minter and Brooks
Raley – out of action.
Senga will mix things up a bit, but Frankie will be back in a week and Manaea in 2 weeks.
ReplyDeleteSenga was SO good yesterday…what a shame. He was showing HE, not Paul Skenes, was the leading Cy Young candidate to this point.
Sproat was mediocre again last night….5 innings, 3 runs, 3 Ks. What happened to him? I guess we’ll find out next year when he is an SP 1 for the WhiteSox.
Tong is terrific.
the Mets recalled Max Kranick to fill the moster spot left open when Senga went on the IL last night, so, my guess is Blackburn will get a spot start the next time Senga would have been scheduled to start.
DeleteFrankly, Sproat is either a future pen candidate or an AAAA starter in Syracuse. Hit the wall as so many do in AAA ball.
Tong will pitch July in Syracuse
Santucci has been great his last 5(?) starts. Some might say Superb.
ReplyDeleteSantucci could fill the Binghamtom slot when Tong moves up
DeleteAlonso was SO bummed after his bad throw to first resulted in Senga’s injury.
ReplyDeleteShite like this happens. Shows the character of Pete
DeleteSenga said after the game, that he felt the pull a full stem BEFORE he reached the bag, and the throw wasn't to blame.
DeleteThat said, is Pete turning into the 1B version of Mackie Sasser?
When I think back to Megill’s MLB debut, he had very few AAA innings compiled, and not a lot in AA, either. If the Mets were currently in a similarly dire situation, which they very clearly are not, McLean and Tong could be called up right now. 100% ready? No. Ready enough? Yes.
ReplyDeleteDifferent situation. Too much qualified starters under contract already in Queens
DeleteI can’t remember this much depth in our lower levels ever. What a great problem to have indeed.
ReplyDeleteI hope they bring Jett up to triple A ASAP to get some reps so he can be an option for the big club instead of trading for someone at the deadline? Him batting 9th and Acuna 8th could be a fun speedy group for Lindor to hit behind?
Zozo
Zozo lives!!!
DeleteWilliams will play AAA soon, if only to showcase him for a trade. Frankly, there are more talented options in center in the chain and there is nowhere in the Mets to play him in the infield until McNeil goes away.
Or you could trade Acuña
I don't see any way that Jett makes it to the majors this year Zozo. They are in a precarious situation, with Baty, Vientos and possibly Mauricio (not sure) out of options.
ReplyDeleteI think Acuna will be the odd man out.
I can't understand why people want to make changes to the team with the best record in the majors
DeleteI agree. I keep reading in various sites about which of our prospects will or should be traded, but what would they be traded FOR?
DeleteWe don't really have holes now that need to be filled, so if Sproat, Williams, or others were to go, what would we want in return?
What are the Mets going to look like in 2026/2027?. An obvious place where the Mets can become cheaper is the rotation, but do you want to break what has been a great rotation up?. But if you don't, what happens to Tong, McLean and others who are pitching great in the minors.
ReplyDeleteWith Nimmo and McNeil all of a sudden hitting the cover off the ball, where can the Mets possibly play the kids?.
I hope you have been following my series on this subject
DeleteThe only real spots are 3B, occasional 2B, and LH DH, Its good the McNeal can play some CF and LF.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know if Mauricio has any options left?
Also, for those who know much more than me, how is it possible that players that are not even arbitration eligible cannot be sent down to the minors anytime they want. On that same track, do the options reset every year?
If not, we are in serious trouble with Baty, Vientos and Mauricio.
Joe
DeleteOptions are options
You get 3 regardless if you are on the 26, the 40, of if you are an Episcopalian
Yes, Mauricio has an option left
Acuna will be in Syracuse soon…
ReplyDeleteThanks Mack wasn't sure of the rules.
ReplyDeleteI agree, Acuna will go, after Winkler replaces Young. This would be barring any trades.
It’s great to have the kind of depth that allows the club to let the kids fully mature on the farm. I was a big believer this offseason that McNeil’s second half last season was more transformation than hot streak, and here he is with the second highest OPS on the team, way ahead of Soto who is 3rd. If Jeff - with his defensive versatility - continues to hit like this, I don’t see a scenario where they deal him this offseason, regardless of how many 2B prospects are stacking up behind him.
ReplyDeleteBaty may or may not be here next season, and Mauricio’s continued development could have something to say about that. I know that Mack thinks that Williams may be traded, and he may. But he’s also young enough to give him one more year in the system as McNeil’s heir apparent. Acuña looks like a straight utility guy. Vientos looks more and more like a DH-only, provided he can find his ‘24 stroke again. The real fun will start when more of the AA and A+ hitters get closer in late ‘26 and the following offseason.