ANGRY MIKE
Nolan McLean has won his first 4 starts in decisive fashion, exhibiting poise, a tactical approach, and a lethal pitching arsenal rarely seen from a rookie pitcher, let alone veteran pitchers. Using A.I. we’ve compiled data on how McLean’s pitching arsenal stacks up with other top starting pitchers.
3 Categories of Graphics for comparing 5 of McLean’s pitches:
A. Compared to other Top Starting Pitchers
B. Compared to other Top Prospects
C. Compared to other Highly Rated Pitches
CURVEBALL
Key Insights
- Spin and Movement: McLean’s 3,279 rpm and 18.4” horizontal break exceed most (e.g., Cole’s 8.9”, Cease’s 3.2”), resembling a slurve with elite spin; IVB (13.1”) provides solid drop but less than Cease’s (15.6”).
- Velocity: Low-80s aligns with Cole/Burnes/Skubal but trails Skenes’ harder version, aiding deception via fastball contrast.
- Effectiveness: Whiff rate (41.7%) and BA against (.091) are elite, outperforming most despite small sample; high active spin contributes to movement sharpness.
- Style Differences: McLean’s has massive sweep and drop (high active spin); others like Cole emphasize curve depth, Skenes velocity with less break. Low usage for some (e.g., Skubal 2.5%) indicates secondary role.
Nolan McLean’s curveball is thrown at 80.0 mph with 3,279 rpm spin, 18.4 inches of horizontal break (glove-side), 13.1 inches of induced vertical break, 96% active spin, 41.7% whiff rate, 18.2% usage, and .091 batting average against in 2025. It earns a 70 scouting grade and 125 Stuff+ (95th percentile MLB), marking it as elite based on scouting reports and debut performance.
SLIDER
Nolan McLean, features a sweeper-style slider as a primary out pitch. It averaged 84 mph with 18” glove-side HB and 2” IVB, usage 25%, 38% whiff rate, and .180 BA against, generating chases with its sharp horizontal sweep. Overall, McLean’s slider compares favorably in raw stuff to top starters, potentially elite if command improves in his young career.
Key Insights
- Spin and Movement: McLean’s 2,995 rpm and 15.8” sweep exceed most starters (e.g., Sale’s 10.2”, Cease’s minimal break). This resembles elite reliever sweepers but is rare among starters for sustained use.
- Velocity: Mid-80s aligns with Gray/Sale but slower than Cease/Skubal’s harder versions, aiding deception via fastball contrast.
- Effectiveness: Whiff rate (25%) is solid but lower than Cease/Sale’s, possibly due to early MLB sample; high Stuff+ suggests potential growth.
- Style Differences: McLean’s is a pure sweeper (high horizontal, low vertical); others like Cease use gyro-style (bullet spin, less break but high whiffs via velocity). Sale’s slower slider relies on drop for outs.
4-Seam Fastball
McLean’s fastball sits mid-90s with peaks at 98 mph, from a low three-quarters slot (5.1 ft release). This flat approach deceives despite average spin (2200-2400 RPM). Added arm-side run (10-15 inches) improves effectiveness. Vs. MLB elites like Skenes (higher velo/spin), it’s deceptive but lacks premium IVB (16-18 inches). Strength: Slot deception. Weakness: Average IVB.
Key Insights
- Spin and Movement: McLean’s 2,293 rpm and 15.1” ride are solid but below elite levels (e.g., Cease’s 16.5”, Skenes’ high run at 14.4” but low ride). This suits a starter role but lacks the raw dominance of harder throwers.
- Velocity: Mid-90s aligns with Burnes/Sale but trails Cease/Skubal/Skenes, aiding tunneling with offspeed pitches.
- Effectiveness: Whiff rate (25%) and BA against (.225) are average; higher IVB suggests potential for more swings-and-misses if located up in the zone.
- Style Differences: McLean’s has modest run and good ride (high active spin); others like Skenes emphasize run from low release, Cease velocity and ride. Sale’s relies on ride from low slot.
2-SEAM FASTBALL
Key Insights
- Velocity: McLean’s 94.6 mph is competitive, slightly below Burnes/Wheeler but above Webb. Reports indicate he touches 98 mph, suggesting upside.
- Movement: His 16.1” HB matches top-tier run (e.g., Wheeler’s 17.6”), while 2.5” IVB shows elite sink (only Webb has more drop at 0.3”). This profile excels at ground balls, similar to Valdez/Webb.
- Usage and Effectiveness: Lower usage than Valdez/Webb but higher than Burnes/Wheeler. Whiff rate is modest, but low BA against (.136) outperforms all, indicating weak contact. Burnes uses it sparingly as a setup pitch.
- Overall: McLean’s sinker compares favorably in velo and movement to these aces, with better suppression of hits than groundball specialists like Webb/Valdez. As a rookie, it has star potential if paired with his elite spin on breaking balls.
CHANGEUP
Key Insights
- Spin and Movement: McLean’s 1,950 rpm and 12.5” fade align with Burnes/Skubal, but trail elite faders like Skubal’s 15.4”; IVB (5.2”) provides solid drop, similar to Cease’s (6.0”).
- Velocity: Mid-80s matches Tong/Skubal but slower than Skenes’ 90.5 mph version, aiding tunneling with his fastball.
- Effectiveness: Whiff rate (28%) and BA against (.220) are solid, comparable to Burnes but below Skubal/Tong’s elite marks; moderate usage suggests secondary role.
- Style Differences: McLean’s has good fade and drop (solid active spin); others like Skubal emphasize massive run with low spin for deception, Skenes velocity. Low usage for Cole (4%) indicates tertiary pitch.


















Mike, I’m reading the 70 grade curveball is so much better than others, so what does it take to get an 80 grade?
ReplyDeleteMcLean hasn’t been seen enough and scouted enough for us to know if teams can adjust to his repertoire. Certainly, McLean right now is saving the Mets pitching.
But you keep bringing up Cease, and you’ve made me think: has Cease had a pitching lab in either Chicago or San Diego? Is he someone that can really explode with the Mets?
So I looked at all the top prospects, there were maybe 6-7 pitchers with 70 grade sliders like McLean.
DeleteSome sites have Tong’s fastball rated 65, even before the velocity, so it should be 70 at least by season’s end.
Roki Sasaki was given an 80 grade fastball - even before throwing a pitch in Spring training.
Criteria for Secondary Pitches (e.g., Curveball, Slider, Changeup)
Unlike fastballs, secondary pitches lack standardized velocity charts and are graded more subjectively based on:
• Movement/Break: Sharp, late bite inducing high swing-and-miss rates (e.g., >20-30% whiff rate).
• Velocity Differential: Effective gap from fastball (e.g., changeup 8-12 mph slower).
• Command and Deception: Consistent location, tunneling with fastball, and ability to generate weak contact or strikes.
• 80-Grade Threshold: Must be “unhittable” at the MLB level—among the league’s best, with exceptional metrics like break length (>15-20 inches for curves/sliders) and elite effectiveness. Rare; not every ace has one.
No universal metrics exist, as grading is scout-dependent, but 80-grade secondaries dominate hitters (e.g., high chase rates, low batting average against).
Examples of 80-Grade Pitches
• Fastball: Paul Skenes (98+ mph with ride and command).
• Curveball: Blake Snell (sharp break, high whiffs).
• Changeup: Devin Williams (airbender-like movement, elite deception).
• Slider: Gerrit Cole (late bite, high velocity).
I don't need metrics to tell me that McLean is a potential ace. My eyes don't lie.
ReplyDeleteSame here - numbers are fun to look at though
DeleteMcLean is two lengths ahead of Tong, coming out of the gate. Tong is ready to gallop.
ReplyDeleteRemember when we used to draft guys like Aaron Heilman in the 1st Rd, now we are finding guys like McLean in the 3rd and Tong in the 7th.
DeleteHave the Baseball Gods finally granted us reparations for their decades of treachery?
Sprout is pitching Sunday.
ReplyDeleteAbout bloody time that call was made
DeleteI think it is just remarkable that McLean is being compared to the elite pitchers rather than the late call-ups. He has burst upon the scene and created a serious buzz. This should not only help him, but motivate the competitiveness in the other pitchers on the staff to improve their game.
ReplyDeleteWhat’s awesome is he’s tight with Tong and Sproat - you can see slight similarities in a couple of their pitches. Nightmare fuel for opponents
Delete