ANGRY MIKE - BRANDON SPROAT: SUPER-GROK ANALYSIS: PITCHING ARSENAL ANALYTICAL METRICS:

 

ANGRY MIKE 

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS:

A. TOP MLB STARTERS

B. TOP PROSPECTS

C. HIGHEST GRADED PITCHES

Fastball:

Velocity:

• Average: 95.9 mph (early 2025); increased to 97.3 mph (post-June 28, 2025); 96.7 mph (end of 2024); 2024 9th highest in Minors.
• Max: Touched 100-101 mph multiple times
• 96.8 mph average in early August 2025; 81% of fastballs at 97+ mph from June 28 to July 31, 2025.

Spin Rate:

• Average: Naturally low, around 2,000 RPM (2024-2025 reports).
• Low spin contributes to a sinker-like profile despite being a four-seamer; older 2023 reports mentioned 2,700+ RPM, but recent data confirms lower rates.

OVERALL:

• Scouting Grades: Often graded 60-70 on 20-80 scale for fastball (elite velocity potential).
• Adjustments: Mets worked to elevate it in the zone (vs. low/inside sinker use); velocity dips early 2025 attributed to consistency issues, reversed with mechanical tweaks.
• Comparisons: Similar to Bryan Woo (run-heavy shape); among fastest in Mets organization.

Changeup:

Velocity:

• Average: 89-92 mph (2025 hot streak); upper-80s overall; 90.3-90.4 mph in 2025 splits; mid-80s in earlier reports (2023-2024).
• Max: Up to 93 mph; touched 92 mph consistently in late 2025.
• Stable at 90 mph even as fastball velocity increased, creating 7-8 mph separation; no significant gains in 2025 unlike other pitches.

Movement:

• Horizontal: 13-16 inches armside run/fade; one report notes “8/16 shape” (likely 8 inches HB).
• Vertical: 30.7 inches total drop; over 12 inches depth; low IVB (tumbles with fade, not ride-focused).
• Shape: Pronounced armside fade with depth; tunnels well off fastball due to maintained arm speed; solid separation but not elite velo gap in upper-80s; induces weak contact/ground balls.

Scouting Grades:

• 50-70 on 20-80 scale: Commonly 60 grade (MLB Pipeline); 50/60 (FanGraphs); 70/70 (one 2025 report);
• Above-average potential, but not plus; could be fourth average pitch; improved command/conviction in 2025.
• High-velocity changeup similar to DeGrom’s (per some reports); among best in Mets system for fade.
• Key to 2025 turnaround (2.44 ERA post-June); potential MLB weapon vs. LHH; projects as plus pitch with starter upside.

Sinker:

Velocity:

• Average: 95.3 mph (early 2025, first 15 starts); 96.1 mph (post-June 28, 2025); 95.2 mph (overall 2025 Triple-A); 95-98 mph range in scouting notes.
• Max: Up to 99 mph; touched 98 mph consistently in 2025 outings.
• Velocity held steady or slightly increased with overall fastball gains; 81% of fastballs (including sinker) at 97+ mph from June 28-July 31, 2025.

Movement:

• Horizontal: 16.9-17 inches armside run (2025 Triple-A; “huge run” per Baseball America).
• Shape: Heavy armside fade/run with sink; tunnels well with four-seam due to similar release; supinated delivery enhances run vs. RHH but less effective vs. LHH.
• Other: Total vertical drop 30+ inches (adjusted for release); generates weak contact/groundballs.

Effectiveness:

• Whiff Rate: 14.9% (early 2025); not elite but improved with velocity (overall fastball whiff up to 30% post-adjustments).
• Chase Rate: 42.3% (early 2025; strong for inducing swings).
• Batting Average/Slugging Against: .190 BAA overall (2025 Triple-A, no extra-base hits); .176 vs. RHH, .278 vs. LHH; SLG ~.300-.350 (weak contact focus).

Scouting Grades:

• 50-60 on 20-80 scale: 55/60 (MLB Pipeline 2025); 60 vs. RHH (plus-plus run); 50 vs. LHH (average).
• Run-heavy like Bryan Woo’s sinker.
• Key to 2025 turnaround (2.44 ERA post-June, 70 K in 59 IP); projects as plus pitch, especially vs. RHH; among top in Mets system for movement.

Sweeper:

Velocity:

• Average: 83-86 mph (2024-2025 reports; 84 mph typical in Triple-A 2025); stable across levels.
• Max: Up to 87-88 mph in bursts.

Spin Rate:

• Moderate spin with gyro elements for sweep; lower than elite MLB sweepers but effective due to shape; 2025 reports note “late break” without quantifying spin.

Movement + Effectiveness:

• Shape: Sharp, late glove-side break; tunnels well with fastball/slider; 
• Total break 20-22 inches combined; induces swings/misses via tunneling.
• Sharp sweep (16.5 inches HB) and whiff (35%) induce chases (35-40% vs. RHH), with 11 mph velo gap enhancing tunneling (2025 MiLB: second-most whiffs in arsenal).
• Chase Rate: 35-40% (2025 post-June; induces chases away from RHH).

Scouting Grades:

• 20-80 Scale: 55-60 (MLB Pipeline 2024-2025: Slider/Sweeper 60 present/future; Baseball America 2025: 55/60; FanGraphs 2025: 55; 
• Comparisons: Similar to Bryan Woo’s sweeper (horizontal run, whiff focus); potential MLB weapon as No. 2/3 starter pitch.
• Sproat’s moderate spin (2300 RPM) produces strong glove-side sweep (16.5 inches HB) with minimal vertical (2 inches IVB), yielding a sharp, late-breaking shape for RHH whiffs (away tunneling off fastball).
• Comparable to Wheeler (60-grade, command) and Skubal (55/60, balance) but below deGrom (70-grade, efficiency) and Skenes (65-grade, velo).

Curveball:

Velocity:

• Average: 78-81 mph (consistent across 2023-2025 reports; upper-70s to low-80s in 2025 Triple-A).

Spin Rate:

• Estimated 2,400-2,600 RPM based on typical college/pro curveball spin and reports of “top-down” shape (2023 college data where breaking balls averaged 2,500 RPM).

Movement:

• Horizontal: Minimal (4-6 inches glove-side; “slurvy” when loopy).
• Vertical: 10-12 inches drop (12-6 shape emphasized; IVB 8-10 inches estimated from scouting).
• Shape: Classic 12-6 top-down break; can flatten or become slurvy (blends with slider/sweeper if not sharp); tunnels decently with fastball but lacks elite separation.

Effectiveness:

• Chase Rate: 25-30% (induces chase low/away but not elite; 2025 post-June: blended into 30% overall secondary whiff).

Scouting Grades:

• 20-80 Scale: Consistently 45 across major sources.

Overall:

• Sproat’s curve induces moderate contact quality (.250 BAA, 35% hard hit, xwOBA .320-.350 in 2025), with low usage (5%) as “get-me-over” pitch (20-25% whiff rates).
• Solid depth (10 inches IVB) and velo gap (17 mph) promote groundballs (45% rate), low usage (5%) adding variety (2025: minor role in 2.05 ERA streak). Matches Gray/Bassitt for balance.