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11/29/25

Reese Kaplan -- Trades to Try to Help Obtain Outfielders


Yesterday we examined the free agent options available to fill the two starting outfield vacancies the Mets now have on their roster.  It is indeed possible they could go with Jeff McNeil in left and Tyrone Taylor in center but those options don’t appear to provide as much offensively that the club needs to become more competitive in the chase for the pennant.  Assuming Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger are too expensive while Harrison Bader hits that offensive middle ground that doesn’t propel to teams to victory.

The other approach, of course, is to engage in more trades.  It’s a little difficult to figure out who might or might not be available by other teams.  Usually anyone could be pried away for the right price.  Some players have been mentioned in trade rumors not just this off season but also during the 2025 season as well.  Some look interesting while others have a great many red flags which must be considered before executing a swap of someone the other club might actually want to see walk out the locker room door.


A great example of this type of player is the expensive retained center fielder playing in south side of Chicago for the White Sox, Luis Robert, Jr.  Given the record setting bad play by this franchise it was a bit puzzling to see them exercise their $20 million option on the one-time All Star level player who both cannot stay healthy and has not replicated those numbers after signing a high dollar contract.  

In 2025 Robert, Jr. hit just .233 with 14 HRs and 53 RBIs.  The big number for him was 33 SBs and he does play stellar defense.  However, those numbers are not reflective of good value at a price tag of $15 million. Back in 2023 he slugged 38 HRs and drove in 80 while having a healthy and solid year.  The next two years COMBINED he hit 28 HRs and drove in 88 while hitting .223.  Is that worth $20 million per year even with a Gold Glove on his mantle?


A parallel health challenge exists for the Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton.  He’s shown solid offense during his career.  He hit 28 HRs in one season and this past year put together his best ever performance with 35 HRs and 83 RBIs while hitting .254 with 24 SBs and playing his usual Gold Glove caliber defense in center.  

The issue with Buxton is not so much his salary (currently set at $15.1 million per year (plus some performance bonuses possible), but rather his ability to stay on the field.  He began his career back in 2015 and only twice has exceeded 400 ABs in a season.  He also has a no-trade clause that would need to be waived much like Nimmo’s was.  At age 31 with three years of obligation he fits that mid-tier contract length and price, but how much time will Taylor be playing in his place?


A somewhat lesser known and younger option is the Athletics Tyler Soderstrom who moved from playing first base to left field where he functioned at a stellar level defensively while providing solid pop with his bat.  He finished hitting .272 with 25 HRs and 93 RBIs.  

He’s still pre arbitration and making very little money, so any prospective trade partner is going to be coughing up some pretty strong talent to lure him away.  As a left handed hitter he would essentially replace the now departed Brandon Nimmo in the outfield. 


Some folks are purporting that the Padres are looking to reduce payroll despite losing Dylan Cease, Michael King and Luis Arraez to free agency.  One of their very big ticket players who earns near the top of their payroll spectrum is Fernando Tatis, Jr.  He’s moved from infield to outfield and performs commendably out there while providing middle of the order offense.  He’s won a pair of Silver Slugger awards and finished 3rd in the MVP voting in 2023 when he clubbed 47 HRs, drove in 97 and hit .282 while also stealing 25 bases.  He also has a pair of Gold Gloves.  

For his career he’s always well over 20 HRs on average per season as well as approaching 30 SBs per year.  The issue (aside from his previous PED issue) is the magnitude of his deal.  The now 26 year old is going to make $20.7 million next year, $25.7 million the next two years and then it jumps up to $36.7 million for the next six years  Add it up and you’re looking at a commitment of about $291 million for nine years, an average rate of $32.3 per season.  

That’s a lot of change but if you’re really looking to be in it to win it then you’ve got to pay the price.  Of course, giving the Padres nearly $300 million of salary relief would net them back a decent but not great return given the cost involved.  It’s possible they would pay down some of the deal to get out from under but that could increase the quality of players received in return.


The Guardians have enjoyed league-best left field defense from mostly singles hitter Steven Kwan since joining Cleveland in 2022.  He is good for a career average of .281 with double digit home runs and double digit stolen bases.  He’s won a Gold Glove in each of his four seasons in the majors.  At age 27 he is only earning $4.7 million until this year’s deal is negotiated.  If you want to prevent runs without breaking the bank then he would most definitely be someone of interest.

There are many clubs deep in outfielders like the Red Sox who might be willing to part with one or more of them for the right price but until they decide if they are serious about acquiring Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso and need to clear out the starting lineup a bit. 

Who do you think the Mets should target in trades?

17 comments:

  1. Mets give up:

    One of Sproat, Tong, or Scott

    Jett Williams

    One of Suero, R. Hernandez, or Guitierrez

    One of Mauricio or Acuna

    One of Watson, Hall, or Santucci

    Mets get:

    Tatis

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    1. I would take on the whole contract and not give up that much. Sproat and Ewing should be sufficient.
      Plus this contract would be cheaper than what you would have to pay Tucker and I believe he is still younger than him as well.

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    2. Suero, Tong, Williams, Santucci and Mauricio is way too much. The Padres have Ethan Salas and then five straight pitchers in their top prospects. They need middle infielders and and a first base prospect. Give them Clifford, Williams and Acuna and if they complain, say “o k, thank you, good luck next year”. No one is giving them more than that.

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  2. But Mack, aren’t EACH of those prospects eventually going to be as good as Tatis all by themselves? Or…maybe not…

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  3. Robert had a good, if brief, second half. But I think getting him is importing another Tyrone Taylor, perhaps a little better. Might he turn into another Nate Colbert? Both hit 38 HRs at a young age, Colbert did it twice, but he totally imploded starting at age 28. Of course, had Colbert not played in the San Diego extreme pitchers’ park, he would have cleared 40 twice.

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    Replies
    1. The Mets are less than 100 games away from a full time premiere defensive centerfielder that also can hit

      No more head cases like Robert

      Please

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    2. I don’t want Robert, but he is a free agent in 2026, and fast as the wind. Depends what else they do.

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  4. Man, I am so tired of hearing everyone still speaking of Louis Robert. The dude stinks offensively. We have the same player in Taylor for 3.8 mil. Please can we move on.

    We have 3 young OF's coming up within the next year or two. That's not counting Jett Williams. If Benge's not ready on OD, can we use that Asian player from Pittsburg as part of a platoon.
    Sorry I don't know his name.

    A Tatis trade is really growing on me but the last 3 years at 36m per scares me. For the package you mentioned Mack, I would like them to pay down the last 6 years. If I'm taking on the whole contract my package would be less, maybe lose the last pitcher.

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  5. Robert is similar to Taylor, but much more power and faster. His last two bad, partial years, he had 1.4 WAR both years. If we got him cheap trade-wise, and went big elsewhere, suck as Skubal and/or Tatís…

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  6. Robert for Manaea, that's the only deal I would entertain. Pay down 10 mil on Manaea next year.

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  7. I know he is injury prone but I wouldn’t mind trading for Buxton.
    15 mil a year for 3 years is very doable even though we will have to pay a whole lot in prospects

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  8. I agree with everyine promoting patience. No Robert, Buxton or Kwan. The Mets should be only after elite and healthy production… Tatis. That’s it.

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  9. How do humans make predictions relative to the evidence they have? Here's a partial answer to this difficult question and it applies to the issue facing the Mets and it over and over again in the comments. We tend to project wildly about those whose floors and ceilings we have insufficient evidence of, and we are overconfident in our judgments of both the ceiling and the floors of those we have significantly more evidence of. Makes sense, and that is why we see such wildly different judgments in the comments. Some comments say the equivalent of 'trade the farm' for Tatis; and others say don't trade anyone other than second tier prospects for established major leaguers because the latter group of commentators are adopting wildly positive projections of top tier players way above the norm of what would be the norm of a starting veteran player at a similar position. This, in spite of the fact that there is lots of evidence that most prospects don't perform above the norm. On the other hand, those who say trade the farm adopt wild projections about all the prospects they name assuming none -- let alone some combination of them -- will prove more valuable over the longer term than the floor that Tatis has established or the ceiling they have projected for him, or some combination of the two. Irrational? Inconsistent? Not really. Rational? Consistent? Not really? Just decision making under uncertainty. And that my friends is exactly what makes it so much fun and anxiety for us, and so difficult for management. That is why Jerry West, a brilliant mind in another sport said, in effect, that in putting a team together, there is literally no more important skill than the ability to evaluate talent (and I would add, no greater systemic value in an organization than the ability to develop it). If you are confident in the latter as well as the former that gives you a reason to hold onto to the talent you have in order to develop them to their fullest, while doing your best not to wildly project their likely success.
    After all, you don't need all stars at every position to win. You need balance and optimization over a number of different variables. No one in their right mind would look at last year's starting outfield of the Dodgers and say that it was excellent. And frankly the infield performed less well than one would have expected; as the bullpen certainly did as well.

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  10. Following up from a Mets point of view. The existing starting rotation has too much uncertainty in regards to many metrics; on the other hand the cost of improving that dramatically from the outside is likely very high. This suggests that the right thing to do is load up on the bullpen quality with relatively high confidence pitchers. In fact, an excellent bullpen on paper anyway would cost less than the expected cost of Valdez or the actual cost of Cease that Toronto paid. Where among free agent SP should Mets shop therefore? I don't know, but I would be inclined to go for a couple of very reliable mid rotation pitchers with good arsenal of pitches. I personally like King as one of those. Maybe a trade candidate as well. Don't know.

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  11. Following up on position players. I am on record as open to trading Alvarez especially to a team that sees potential in him that I don't see given his mechanics at the plate. I'd love to be wrong. We need a right handed in the middle of the lineup. If we didn't, I'd say it is as close to a no brainer as possible to look to sign Bellinger who has more versatility than anyone on the Mets and is likely an all star defensive first baseman frankly and right now moves Soto to left and plays right, while leaving room for one or more of our outfield prospects shows they can handle one or two of the outfield positions and B moves to first. I like Andujar as a potential RH DH if we don't resign Alonso; plenty of lefties in the lineup who can serve as rotating LH DH. Overall, I'm glad not to be the one making any of these decisions. I am optimistic that the person who is being paid to make them is up to the task

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