MACK - MY WEDNESDAY OBSERVATIONS - MACK'S PROSPECT #5 - RHSP WILL WATSON - Dove Camp Notes, Robert Suarez, Joe Ryan, Juan Soto, A.J. Ewing, Jose Castillo, Sean Manaea

 

I promised all of you that, as soon as the season ended, I would breakout and post my current Top 30 prospects.

This is performance based, not players that came to the Mets full of promise but have only produced butterscotch pudding. A perfect example of a player that didn’t make this list is catcher Ronald Hernandez. I still like the guy, but based on what he did in 2025, I don’t like him “top 30 guy”.

Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong _(maybe) are not on this list. They have graduated.

I will post them in each of my weekly Observations and In Focus posts… one player at a time… beginning with #30.

Today, we move to #5:

5.     RHSP Will Watson

23/years old    6-1    180    7^th rd. 2024 – USC

2025 – A/A+/AA:  28-G, 23-ST, 3-9, 2.60, 1.20, 121.1-IP, 142-K, 58-BB

Will Watson is widely regarded as one of their breakout prospects in 2025.

He signed for $281,300, just under slot value.

Prior to USC, Watson attended California Lutheran University and San Joaquin Delta College, where he was drafted in the 20th round by the Seattle Mariners in 2023 but opted to return to school.

Watson's journey to pro ball included a solid college season at USC in 2024, where he appeared in 16 games (9 starts), posting a 3.93 ERA over 50.1 innings with 46 strikeouts, 27 walks, and a 1.411 WHIP.

Watson profiles primarily as a pitcher with starter potential but could transition to relief if command issues persist. He's praised for his competitiveness, athleticism, and ability to miss bats,

2025 Performance and Rise

Watson's first full professional season in 2025 has been a revelation, earning him spots on Mets top-prospect lists. He began at Single-A St. Lucie, where he dominated with a sub-3.00 ERA and high strikeout totals, including a career-high 7 Ks in 4.1 hitless innings in his debut on April 9.

Promoted to High-A Brooklyn in June, he continued excelling (e.g., 8 Ks in 4.2 scoreless innings on June 13), then reached Double-A Binghamton by late summer.

Scouts call him a "wildcard" arm with quick-rising potential, though his fringe-average control (walks remain a hurdle) could cap him as a mid-rotation starter or high-leverage reliever.

ETA to MLB: 2027, but aggressive promotions suggest 2026 is possible.

Pitch Repertoire

Watson's arsenal is deep and versatile, featuring a five-pitch mix that plays well against both lefties and righties. He's experienced a velocity spike in pro ball (up 2-3 mph across the board), crediting Mets development for better extension and spin. He throws from a low-three-quarters slot with a leg kick and long arm action, adding deception. His fastball-centric approach keeps hitters off-balance, and he's noted that opponents "haven't been comfortable" facing it.

Four-Seam Fastball

94-97 mph (avg. 95)

Rise/run profile with elite spin (up to 2,300 RPM); explosive life up in the zone for whiffs. Primary pitch (50-60% usage).

Plus grade; generates swing-and-miss (often his best offering). Peaks at 97 mph.

Slider

84-87 mph (mid-80s avg.)

Sharp, late break with two-plane movement; pairs well with fastball for righties.

Above-average; key for stealing strikes and Ks (recently "working really well"). 20-25% usage.

Cutter

88-91 mph (upper-80s avg.)

New addition in 2025; hard, late cut to tunnel with fastball/slider.

Fringe-average but improving; used as bridge pitch (10-15% usage). "Still finding the right spots," per Watson.

Changeup

87-90 mph (upper-80s avg.)

Tailing action with arm-side fade; firm but flashes plus potential vs. lefties.

Above-average; complements fastball for reverse splits. 10-15% usage.

Curveball

78-82 mph

Deeper, 12-6 break as change-of-pace; less used but adds depth.

Average; situational for early counts or stealing strikes. <10% usage.

Strengths: High-spin fastball and slider combo drives his 25-30% K-rate; athletic delivery aids repeatability. Areas for growth: Command (4+ BB/9) to unlock full potential—refining this could elevate all pitches to plus. Watson's meteoric 2025 rise—from seventh-rounder to Double-A playoff starter—marks him as a Mets system bonus. With the organization's pitching lab, he could emerge as a dark-horse rotation piece by 2027. 

Mack Ade macksmets@gmail.com

Highlights from last Ernest Dove podcast:

1. 100% healthy Zach Thornton

2. Also in pitching camp, R.J. Gordon, Jack Wenninger, Ryan Lambert, and Brandon Girton

3. Small, under 20 pitchers select camp.

4. Position players concentrated on strengthening. Positive updates on Boston Baro, Eli Serrano III, Carson Benge, Jacob Reimer, AJ Ewing, and Collin Houck.

5. Camp now in the "dead period ".

6. Re: players that left the AFL early... Brett Banks is 100%, and DeAndre Smith, is also 100% healthy

7. Austin Treosser may be injured. No details.

 

High-leverage relievers still on the board after Ryan Helsley signing

CLICK HERE

Robert Suarez, who quietly put together is one of the most efficient seasons in the league for the Padres. The 34-year-old right-hander logged 40 saves with a 2.97 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, giving him the kind of recent track record teams crave in the ninth inning.

 

Joe Ryan

https://fansided.com/mlb/mlb/ranking-joe-ryan-trade-destinations-from-favorites-to-dark-horses

New York Mets

The New York Mets unearthed an ace in Nolan McLean, but the rest of the rotation is in shambles. Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat aren't ready. Kodai Senga is too unreliable. Sean Manaea took a huge step back in 2025. Ryan provides instant stability and production at New York's weakest position. The Mets' offense can mash as well as any group in MLB, but unless New York can keep opposing lineups in check, the wins won't come frequently enough in 2026.

Eric Cross                       @EricCrossMLB

Only two players in MLB history met all of the below thresholds through their Age 26 season...

200+ Home Runs

650+ RBI

750+ Runs Scored

75+ Stolen Bases

.400+ OBP

Juan Soto and Mickey Mantle.

 

Ben Yoel                  @Ben_Yoel

A.J. Ewing

Mets biggest prospect rise in 2025. He could be the CF of the future.

He stole 70 bases this year.

 

Mack – MM

LHRP Jose Castillo, who was non-tendered by the Mets in November, has signed with Japan's NPB with the Chiba Lotte Marines. Castillo pitched for four teams in 2025… the Mets, Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Orioles.

32-IP    3.94-ERA

 

Ugly Baseball Contracts

CLICK HERE

Sean Manaea, New York Mets: Manaea took a huge step backward with his 5.64 ERA last season after dealing with a stubborn oblique injury. He’s due $50 million over the final two years of his contract, though more than $14 million of that is deferred. It’s still a high AAV for a pitcher who is soon to be 34 and has only once posted a 3-fWAR season.