Position Analysis – SP
Good morning.
Here’s #2 of 5 in a series of prospect
starters in the Mets chain:
Tyler Megill – 60-day/IL TJS – The mystery isn’t if or when Megill will pitch in 2026… he’s down for the count for the entire season. No, it’s whether the Mets will retain his service when he is ready to pitch again. He has no options left so it’s trade, DFA, or a major league activation.
Me? Well, that will be determined around two weeks prior to his scheduled return and whether or not the current Mets pitching staff needs him, either in the rotation or in the pen. Details at 11…
Christian Scott – TJS – I
have been told by a reliable source that lives at Clover, that Scott has been
quietly working his arse off on the back pitching mounds and has been
determined to be at 100%. If that’s true, and I’m usually right around 60% of
the time (ugh), I expect him to be slow-pitched and start out in
the pen… or even returned to AAA-Syracuse to build up arm strength. We are
going to have to wait and see together here, but my guess is he will be
pitching somewhere in April.
Will Watson – wow, did
this guy come out of nowhere last season. It seemed like he just marched his
way through the chain during his first professional season. I expect more of
the same this season, but I do see a return to AA-Binghamton to start off as
SP1. From there, AAA followed by a probably late call-up next season to help
out in the pen.
Zach Thornton – a particular favorite of mine, my fandom had to take a pause when he went down last season when, on July7th, he suffered a “mild” oblique injury. Have you ever had one of them? Well, there is nothing mild about any level of them.
Now, try to imagine having that and having to come off
the rubber 80-100 times every five days? No, Zach was shut down for the remainder
of the season, which prevented him from ending the season in AAA-Syracuse. I
have him returning to AA-Binghamton and following the same path that Watson
will be on. Two members of the next Three Amigos.
Jonathan Santucci – thanks to Brennan, I didn’t miss on this guy. Big time Friday Night starter out of Duke. Started out with 15-G/13-ST with A+ Brooklyn (3.46), but ended strong with AA-Binghamton (10-ST, 2.52).
Overall, a whopping 138-K in 117.2-IP. Could force
his way into the opening day AAA-Syracuse rotation, but I have him first
returning to AA-Binghamton to probably help create the strongest rotation n
that league.
16 comments:
It will be very exciting to see Scott, Watson, Thornton, and Santucci blossom in 2026. Mend up, Tylor.
Megill’s late Sept TJS has him looking at spring 2027 for a return…somewhere.
Thanks Mack, hope all went well yesterday. It looks Tom may have been right. You came back right out throwing 110 MPH.
Can anyone explain why we are paying McGil this season as he has no guaranteed spot in 2027?
Welcome back Mack! Will be fun watching these guys & Jack Wenninger develop (assuming none are traded)
Joe P, on Megill, I am guessing that with baseball having a constant, dire need of pitching, when he returns in early 2027, he won’t turn free agent until 2028 and hence will be very tradable or very useful. My guess is his bad 2025 and missing 2026 will reduce his 2027 salary from what it would have been. Which would make his 2026 and 2027 cost to be relatively cheap.
Great news about Scott. I say take it slow getting him started so he’s totally ready and doesnt have to shutdown early
And Angry Mike posted this a month ago about 3 pitchers drafted in 2025, which indicates more pitching talent recently added to the talent conveyor belt:
“ They added Peter Kussow who resembles Jacob Misiorowski & Caden Lohman, who’ll remind you of Trey Yesavage because of his delivery. Truman Pauley (12th Rd), has electric stuff and a fastball generating 22.5” of I.V.B and a wipeout “gyro slider”.”
It is remarkable to me that when Tylor Megill returns in 2027, he will turn 32 in the middle of that season. Time truly flies.
The Mets see to use and abuse their non-starters. I wonder if Garrett would have needed TJS with a lower level of usage.
I still wonder if Drew Smith will show up this spring. He is a post-TJS free agent.
Thanks Tom. Didn't they Cut Smith? Or did they resign him to a minor league contract.
Joe, yes, he was cut, but no one else has picked him up yet.
He's better than a lot of the crap we threw out there last year. Just saw they cut Waddell. I know he's nothing to write home about, but again he did better than most.
Joe, I guess Stearns is hoping to use 36 pitchers this year, rather than 46.
Do I hear 56, anyone?
Mack hoping everything went ok yesterday as well?
I like that we are a top tier minors program and definitely want to prospect hug as many as possible. But as many free agents as possible, make sure you give no one a no trade clause and keep building that farm system up.
The farm system is really starting to take off, which is awesome (finally).
Now, I hope that DS doesn't decimate the system's depth by making a bunch of trades.......fingers crossed.
Welcome back Mack. Hope it all worked out well for you. The Dave Mason remains available for the taking. I was mistaken: print is of Let it Flow, not Alone Together -- which is the better album.
Here's the obvious point about a farm system, especially a really well functioning one. Not all the prospects, even those in the top tier, can ,should or will play on your major league club. Of those who do, some will perform below average at that position; some above, and many around average. And that would be an outstanding result. The remainder of the top tier can, should and hopefully will be employed to secure major league talent in trades. Because you know the performance of the players you have at the major league level, almost all of these trades will target players who can perform better than the players you have at those positions now or who can perform roughly at the same level (if it is good enough) farther into the future. That means the almost certainly some of prospects you trade will turn out to perform better than some of the ones you kept or even treated at untouchable. Taken in isolation, this may cause regret, but it really shouldn't. The process has to be looked at holistically and dynamically. And as long as you exercised sound judgment you are getting the most you can expect out of your system. You can't worry about regret. The better use of that energy is to focus on continuing the process of replenishing at the highest level you can, which brings us to the third use of some of your top tier prospects, namely trading them for other prospects, typically at positions where your farm system has become somewhat depleted; and this process should continue regularly within time frames that reflect a variety of other factors: age of the ML team's players, injuries, total payroll and its distribution, etc. None of this way of thinking will stop you from worrying about whether you kept the right ones or traded the wrong ones; those concerns and reactions are unavoidable from time to time. But you just have to stick to the process which is itself nested in other processes that together constitute your organizational strategy and DNA.
It's ok for us as fans to want to keep all the prospects or to trade all of them for a fancy ticket item. It is ok even for the same fan to hold both such beliefs. That this constitutes an inconsistent set of beliefs is a problem logically, but it is the essence of what it means to be a fan. Rationality is not a constraint of fandom, even if it is a constraint of organizational decision making. And that distinction in the constraints of team management and fandom creates the space in which we all live and get to sound off. What could be better.
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