CARSON BENGE
Mets outfield prospects...arsk yourself this?
Are there any Darryl Strawberry-caliber prospects in the group?
Maybe, just maybe, Carson Benge, but I am not so sure - time will tell, but Benge will almost undoubtedly stand out. Besides Benge...
AJ Ewing is incredible, seeking only to add some pop to his great hitting, on base abilities, and base stealing exhilaration. Another Brett Butler or Lance Johnson? Why not?
Then I get to a guy I like almost as much as Benge and Ewing: Nick Morabito. Similar tools to Ewing, but perhaps not quite as good. Nick, prove us wrong.
A notch further down are Eli Serrano, IF/OF D'Andre Smith, Yonaton Henriquez, and Edward Lantigua. Good talent there.
All in all, a heartening level of talent in the Mets outfield prospect contingent.
Of course, athletic infielders who excel in 2025 and beyond may be thrust into the outfield competition soon, too.
The offensive prospect talent IMO is so good, I think that within 3 years, if all current offensive NY Mets players were for some reason no longer here, the Mets' catching, infield and outfield talent could allow the Mets to field a competitive MLB offensive squad from them. I never could have thought that in the past, as Danny Muno just reminded me.
23 comments:
Morning Tom
It's so hard to predict or project outfield prospect talent right now. I will say however, that's it is quite stronger than even the F-Mart days (sic).
See?
F-Mart.
Can't miss, right?
Me? I'm going to wait this out until July. Then, and only then, will any of you be able to project The Three Amigos and to what level of success they would or could have at the major league level.
Good morning, Danny.
Many Mets fans are advocating the familiar, "Just play the kids!" refrain but none appear quite ready. I'm already thinking the 2026 season is already being written off as a "transition year."
Reese, your favorite, Luis Robert Jr, is still in play. I looked at his stats, and wonder, if he gets out of Chicago, would he rebound? His first 2 partial years, 2021-22, he looked like a budding superstar. Them in 2023, he hit 38 HRs, but his Ks really spiked. 2025 not great, but better than his bad 2024. All that losing must be brutal.
Hey, Mack…
F Mart, the 22 year olds with 62 year old knees, yeah, I remember him. If I were these 3 kids, Benge, Ewing, and Morabito, I’d earn my promotion on my bat and not stealing bases. Tough on the legs. Cut your minors steals in half, turn the steal switch back on when you reach the big leagues.
Right
Try telling young fast people to slow down and stop doing what they do best
Certainly the pitching talent is strongest, the infielders are next, and the outfielders are bringing up the rear. Serrano is further down this list, but how far from Benge is he? Jett Williams probably should have stayed in the outfield too. All these drafting penalties have cost the Mets, especially when Brandon Montgomery dropped due to injury and the Red Sox took him after where the Mets were supposed to have picked.
I can't even conceivably comprehend a 5'6" CFer
The Mets currently have four infielders on their roster who were top tier prospect, maybe not from the outset, but certainly by the time they reached AA ball. I would be interested in comparing what the projections and levels of enthusiasm for them was at the height of their minor league careers. I would find it even more interesting to see discussions of why and in what ways the new group is thought superior to those currently on the MLB roster.
I ask in part because I believe the new group holds more promise, but I wonder if my belief is evidence based or lack of evidence based. My guess is that it is a little bit of both.
Let me explain. There is a common psychological phenomenon that generates unduly high projections of the ceilings of performance in many different circumstances. That is true in virtually all sports. In football, unrealistically high projections of college quarterbacks prior to draft day is common. In basketball, the number of top five picks that don't reach all star level ever is striking. And so on.
Here's a putative explanation of the view that my belief (and many others I assume) that our top tier prospects have higher ceilings than those former prospects that are currently on the roster. BTW, I assume that most share my belief in virtue of the widespread willingness to trade some or all of those on the current roster and the strong disinclination to part with any, let alone all, of the top prospects.
On the evidence side: There are real differences that are projectible onto performance at the next level, and some of these apply when comparing our current top prospects with the ones on the major league roster. However, I think the greater contributor to realizing promise and thus a prospect's realizable ceiling is determined by the quality of the organization, its culture, developmental processes at the next level, the mentorship available, and what is asked of them at the outset.
I think our current prospects are likely faster, better defenders overall and have better bat to ball skills. Acuna is the exception and is much more like our current group of prospects. The four on the Mets now have more power overall, but less versatility.
To be honest, I would venture that the differences between the two groups -- talent wise -- is more marginal than glaring, and could never justify the inclination to being open to trading all the ones that have achieved major league status while at the same time resisting all temptations short of a return of a guaranteed all-star performer to trade any of the top tier prospects.
I think part of the explanation points us in the direction of the major transformation that the current leadership has been engaged in, a transformation that some fans IMHO underestimate. I think the greater contributor to realizing promise and thus a prospect's realizable ceiling is determined by the quality of the organization, its culture, developmental processes at the next level, the mentorship available, and what is asked of them at the outset.we believe, and rightly so, that our current prospects have been better developed, that their strengths have been nurtured and cultivated and their weaknesses identified and efforts made to address them. And that is the path that our current team leadership is committed to. The talent difference is probably marginal; the structural and organizational differences are not. And it is the latter that has an outsized impact on whether or not talent is nurtured and cultivated in an environment that fosters success!
On the other hand, the difference in our attitudes towards the prospects who have reached the majors and those who haven't is neither fully rational nor evidence based. If anything, it is based on a lack of evidence. For it is natural to dream about what those who have not faced the big leagues yet are capable of in part because they have done very well up till now and there is no evidence of their performance at the big-league level. In contrast, the problem with evidence derived from actual performance at the big-league level is that it tends to be more predictive,
The net effect is that the difficulties prospects face when reaching the majors that leads to disappointment typically causes irrationally strong adjustments downward.
Look crosstown at the hype that surrounded Volpe that has turned into hysteria. The truth is that Volpe is very likely a serviceable average performing major league infielder with more upside than downside, though the upside is limited. This is just how it goes.
Thus, the bias in favor of less information (really, less reliable and projectible information).
And that's why it is interesting to think about how we view the group of top tier prospects on the infield especially in comparison with the group that were once comparable prospects who have achieved what none of the prospects has: namely, being part of a major league roster!
Part of the bias is just that: not fact-based preferences or judgments. Part of it, however, is rational. The prospects do have a better overall mix of skills. But the big thing is the one we are implicitly relying on and that they are coming through a significantly better organization. The name has not changed; virtually everything else has -- and for the better!
I'll take that as a Xmas gift from the Mets. Hopefully there are other Xmas gifts that will be 'arriving soon'
The fly ball just needs to fall a little more! LOL
Good viewpoint. If we go by the ceiling or floor, we may miss the desire and work ethic. If we go by how hard they work, we will ignore the ceiling of their efforts? Hard to balance it all.
In terms of talent, I would out the current group as Baty, Mauricio, Acuna, Vientos. In terms of upside, Vientos goes first based on his previous history.
There were certain players that simply blew through the minors
David Wright was one
So was Jose Reyes
Juan Soto never played in a AAA game
I just don't see any current Mets minor leaguer accomplishing this
I would use some of these so called "can't miss " prospects and go get me a proven LFer, 3B, and CFer
Agreed. Soto $$$ makes a tax reset very difficult.
A 5’6” CF of renown? Hack Wilson.
I personally like the outfield talent better than Acuna et al.
And Ed Kranepool!
Mack, I agree.
Let’s see how the newly promoted pitchers perform this season at the mlb level. Agree with Jules (as usual) on the organizational strengths today vs past. The next step for the org re: player debt is to promote successful mlb talent & “reclaim” a few of the old regime hill prospects turning them into solid mlb players (Baty, others not traded). The dodgers developed superstar mlb players as they built out their new org (bellinger, swagger, etc). That will demonstrate end-to-end player development success. This is another key organizational goal for 2026.
RVH, let’s look at the Dodgers… for all their hoopla, let’s be honest. If they don’t sign Ohtani, they win nothing. Betts is 36, Freeman 37, lots of imports for the mound. Home grown: Will Smith (although he had growing pains), Pages (what is so good about him anyway?), Muncy (waiver wire pickup), Rojas (dumpster dive), Teoscar Hernandez (trade when he had his lowest value)… I mean for all their hoopla about their system, there is hardly anybody on the team from it!
Not only can can't miss prospects sometimes miss, those who don't fall into three categories: with luck most will perform to league average or marginally better; some below league average, and if you are really lucky, more do well, a few are occasional all-stars and every once in a while you are blessed with one that is genuinely elite.
I think our minor league pitching prospects constitute our greatest prospect asset class.
Point taken Gus. I guess it just goes to show how difficult persistent player development is in reality. This game is so hard, marginal improvements lead to meaningful success at the individual & organizational level. Thank goodness the Mets have Steve cohen’s fortune to bankroll on a persistent basis develop whatever we can & buy the best available to ensure long term organizational success. I’ll take that as the real strategy.
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