POST JEFF MCNEIL TRADE
Mack’s Mets – the premier site for information on the New York Mets talent pipeline and dialogue on Mets prospects, Mets news, and Mets opinions.
Mack’s Mets – the premier site for information on the New York Mets talent pipeline and dialogue on Mets prospects, Mets news, and Mets opinions.
My apologies for interrupting the Jeff McNeil post-mortem, but I have something some of you might be interested. Yesterday in my Substack account, a writer known as The Baseball Nerd had a piece on Francisco Alvarez. It was great reading and I don’t want to steal the article, but I’ll just put the first few paragraphs here and the ending. If anyone wants more, let know.
ReplyDelete“ When History Starts at 93.1 MPH
The catching position demands more than any other spot on the field. Game calling, pitch framing, blocking balls in the dirt, managing a pitching staff, absorbing foul tips off every exposed body part. Young catchers who can simply survive behind the plate while hitting league average are considered successes. Francisco Alvarez just posted an average exit velocity of 93.1 mph at age 23.
Very few players at any position maintain average exit velocities above 93 mph. Those who do get recognized as the most dangerous power threats in the game. The fact that Alvarez is generating this kind of impact velocity while also handling the physical demands of catching is almost unprecedented. His 46-point SPARK Score, anchored by a perfect 20 out of 20 points in Power Development, doesn’t just position him as one of the premier young catchers in baseball. It establishes him as one of the most explosive power threats at any position, period.
The barrel rate improvement tells the same story in different numbers. Alvarez nearly doubled his barrel rate from 6.7 percent in 2024 to an elite 12.1 percent in 2025. That’s a gain of 5.4 percentage points, one of the largest single-season improvements in power production among all analyzed players. In 2024, his barrel rate was respectable but not exceptional. By 2025, he’d jumped into truly elite territory. Very few catchers in baseball history have maintained barrel rates above 12 percent at any age, let alone at 23.
The Physics of Destruction
The exit velocity explosion is where things get genuinely absurd. Alvarez added 4.3 miles per hour to his average exit velocity in one season. This kind of gain is extraordinarily rare at the major league level and typically requires either dramatic mechanical changes or significant gains in strength and bat speed. Most hitters would be thrilled with a one mph improvement. Alvarez quintupled that.
The Inevitable Conclusion
ReplyDeleteThe SPARK Score methodology is designed to identify players who have demonstrated concrete, measurable improvements that predict future success. Alvarez’s 46-point score, anchored by his perfect 20-point mark in Power Development, reflects one of the most explosive power developments among all analyzed players. This isn’t a prospect whose power is theoretical or projected. This is a player who has already demonstrated elite-level power production against major league pitching.
The competitive nature of All-Star selections at the catching position means that even excellent performances can go unrecognized if established stars occupy the limited roster spots. Alvarez has never appeared in an All-Star game, which isn’t surprising given his age and the presence of several established star catchers in the league. But if his power production continues at anywhere near his 2025 levels, All-Star recognition appears not just possible but inevitable.
As we look toward the 2026 season, Alvarez enters with a proven track record of elite power production and the youth to continue developing for years to come. His exit velocity and barrel rate numbers suggest he has the raw ability to become one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball regardless of position. The question isn’t whether Francisco Alvarez can hit for power at the major league level. His 2025 season answered that question definitively. The real questions are simpler. How much playing time will he receive? Can he maintain his elite contact quality across a larger sample? And how many All-Star selections will he earn over the course of what could be a truly special career?
Francisco Alvarez represents the rare combination of youth, demonstrated ability, and elite physical tools that scouts and analysts dream about. His eighth-place ranking in the SPARK Score analysis reflects what he has already accomplished and hints at the enormous potential that lies ahead. The power explosion that defined his 2025 season wasn’t a fluke. It was the emergence of one of baseball’s most dangerous young hitters.
When a 23-year-old catcher is generating 93.1 mph average exit velocities, you’re not watching potential. You’re watching something special.
Much as I wish all this constituted conclusive evidence that is projectible, I don't. The issue is not exit velocity. Nor is it barrel rate. How high is his actual contact rate; his whiff rate; which pitches does he handle, which pitches can't he handle. What are those statistics. Which pitches that are strikes does he take because his body is entirely out of position to make anything other than a tepid swing at it.
ReplyDeleteI pitched, not especially well, needless to say. I also played lots of golf and have coached a wide range of players, some quite talented. The problem with Alvarez is his kinematic sequence. He does not transfer energy efficiently. His lateral move which starts his sequence is lateral -- left and it is followed almost immediately by his upper body opening in the same direction EXTREMELY prematurely. So that alone will tell you three things. he cannot hit up and in fastballs. He has no chance whatsoever to hit any pitch at all with horizontal and vertical movement that ends up in the lower left window or beyond. He hits pitches hard in his power zone, but many are on the ground; that will tell you something about his swing path and how his sequence creates that path.
I would never presume that I could help him correct these obvious flaws in his swing mechanics. Let's just say, i know what i would do. His lateral move should be forward right, not left (as all improvments in motor movement require exaggeration at first. They have to feel very different in order for any change to occur. Ironically, this will actually enable him to have his bat exit more to the left in the right way. I would change the manner in which he develops rotational torque in his pelvic area, and the transition to his down (through swing). All this would lead to much more effortless speed. His speed now, while definitely real (and I have never suggested otherwise) just looks so inefficient and so much effort because it comes all from above and so early (which is the main reason he has no hope hitting outside and down pitches.). That he opens up so early from the top is also why he swings at pitches up and in. If he sequenced better he'd more easily recognize that they are up and in and out of the zone. Right now he think he can get his barrel on them; and if they came in at 88mph instead of 95 he might. But they would be pulled foul more often than not anyway with great exit velocity, but who cares.
And can we agree that he needs to work on his pitch recognition skills.
I love the guy. Love his attitude. Love his love for the game. Love his potential to be a leader and not just a cheerleader. But leaders have to play at a high level
And as I said before, he overwhelmed the pitching competition in his minor league days and no one taught him proper fundamentals. Why fix someone who is succeeding. And that was the mistake. It is defininitely not to late to turn it around. I am not advocating a trade, not at all. I am advocating a rebuild of the mechanics as they say, from the ground up.' The data being cited to prove he is special is not the data that is relevant to assessing what is most likely to occur, and that is because he is facing major league pitchers who, more often than not, can exploit even the most minor flaws in a hitter's swing. And Alvarez has many of them. Everyone has some. all swings in all sports that have swings are almost always a series of compensations made to work. There are precious few exceptions. Alvarez's problems stem from very bad sequencing.
I will end on this paraphrase from a former long drive golf champion. Everyone wants to pick up speed, and nowadays everyone who comes to see me does so to pick up speed. And they want to hit it a mile, and with standard swing speed training they will. The problem iis that almost all of them come to me with mechanically unsound swings, which means that they are likely to leave hitting the ball much farther, with even less chance of finding it.