POST JEFF MCNEIL TRADE
Mack’s Mets – the premier site for information on the New York Mets talent pipeline and dialogue on Mets prospects, Mets news, and Mets opinions.
Mack’s Mets – the premier site for information on the New York Mets talent pipeline and dialogue on Mets prospects, Mets news, and Mets opinions.
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My apologies for interrupting the Jeff McNeil post-mortem, but I have something some of you might be interested. Yesterday in my Substack account, a writer known as The Baseball Nerd had a piece on Francisco Alvarez. It was great reading and I don’t want to steal the article, but I’ll just put the first few paragraphs here and the ending. If anyone wants more, let know.
“ When History Starts at 93.1 MPH
The catching position demands more than any other spot on the field. Game calling, pitch framing, blocking balls in the dirt, managing a pitching staff, absorbing foul tips off every exposed body part. Young catchers who can simply survive behind the plate while hitting league average are considered successes. Francisco Alvarez just posted an average exit velocity of 93.1 mph at age 23.
Very few players at any position maintain average exit velocities above 93 mph. Those who do get recognized as the most dangerous power threats in the game. The fact that Alvarez is generating this kind of impact velocity while also handling the physical demands of catching is almost unprecedented. His 46-point SPARK Score, anchored by a perfect 20 out of 20 points in Power Development, doesn’t just position him as one of the premier young catchers in baseball. It establishes him as one of the most explosive power threats at any position, period.
The barrel rate improvement tells the same story in different numbers. Alvarez nearly doubled his barrel rate from 6.7 percent in 2024 to an elite 12.1 percent in 2025. That’s a gain of 5.4 percentage points, one of the largest single-season improvements in power production among all analyzed players. In 2024, his barrel rate was respectable but not exceptional. By 2025, he’d jumped into truly elite territory. Very few catchers in baseball history have maintained barrel rates above 12 percent at any age, let alone at 23.
The Physics of Destruction
The exit velocity explosion is where things get genuinely absurd. Alvarez added 4.3 miles per hour to his average exit velocity in one season. This kind of gain is extraordinarily rare at the major league level and typically requires either dramatic mechanical changes or significant gains in strength and bat speed. Most hitters would be thrilled with a one mph improvement. Alvarez quintupled that.
The Inevitable Conclusion
The SPARK Score methodology is designed to identify players who have demonstrated concrete, measurable improvements that predict future success. Alvarez’s 46-point score, anchored by his perfect 20-point mark in Power Development, reflects one of the most explosive power developments among all analyzed players. This isn’t a prospect whose power is theoretical or projected. This is a player who has already demonstrated elite-level power production against major league pitching.
The competitive nature of All-Star selections at the catching position means that even excellent performances can go unrecognized if established stars occupy the limited roster spots. Alvarez has never appeared in an All-Star game, which isn’t surprising given his age and the presence of several established star catchers in the league. But if his power production continues at anywhere near his 2025 levels, All-Star recognition appears not just possible but inevitable.
As we look toward the 2026 season, Alvarez enters with a proven track record of elite power production and the youth to continue developing for years to come. His exit velocity and barrel rate numbers suggest he has the raw ability to become one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball regardless of position. The question isn’t whether Francisco Alvarez can hit for power at the major league level. His 2025 season answered that question definitively. The real questions are simpler. How much playing time will he receive? Can he maintain his elite contact quality across a larger sample? And how many All-Star selections will he earn over the course of what could be a truly special career?
Francisco Alvarez represents the rare combination of youth, demonstrated ability, and elite physical tools that scouts and analysts dream about. His eighth-place ranking in the SPARK Score analysis reflects what he has already accomplished and hints at the enormous potential that lies ahead. The power explosion that defined his 2025 season wasn’t a fluke. It was the emergence of one of baseball’s most dangerous young hitters.
When a 23-year-old catcher is generating 93.1 mph average exit velocities, you’re not watching potential. You’re watching something special.
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