Reese Kaplan -- Sometimes Desperation Can Lead to Stupidity

We all have the habit of checking a variety of news sources for the latest tidbits about the Mets, their roster and their upcoming plans hoping to glean some vitally import yet mostly unknown insights to help clarify how things will change for the better.  Sometimes it is about an unsigned free agent being suddenly on the Mets radar.  Other times it's about prospective trades that could solidify the group of players slated to begin the 2026 season.  

Then there are times you just shake your head and scratch it in puzzled wonderment over the sheer lunacy it contains.

Enter the Sporting News who on Tuesday evening volunteered a trade idea for the San Diego Padres and New York Mets.  Yes, there have been a slew of rumors regarding various solid players from southern California crossing the continent to ply their skills for a new employer in Queens.  Those types of stories are good for fireside chats or consumption of copious amounts of adult beverages.  Then come the ones that simply make no sense whatsoever.

TJ Morin penned a piece apparently passing on a blogger hypothetical trade to help the Padres replace the now departed Dylan Cease with another top-of-the-rotation starter by negotiating not for free agent Framber Valdez but instead in a trade with the New York Mets for oft vilified import Kodai Senga.  

Now the idea of the Mets moving on from Senga after on-again/off-again performance and a multitude of injuries having him miss a lot of time is nothing new.  A great many people feel that the team has already gotten the best they hope to receive from the right hander with the ghost fork.  That part is certainly not new.

What is very new is the paltry package being proposed as equitable value for Senga.  Now before we get into the specific players mentioned, let's take a moment to review Senga's Mets tenure.  For his 52 game career in the USA he owns a 6.7 WAR metric that includes a 20-13 record, a 3.00 ERA and 320 strikeouts in just under 286 IP.  Yeah, those numbers are pretty damned good.  Even in his horrific 2025 he finished with a 3.02 ERA.  The question is not what he's capable of doing.  It is how to keep the man healthy in order to pitch like that on every 5th (or 6th) day.

Now sometimes trades are made to offload payroll obligations giving the team financial office major agita.  A good example of that type of transaction would be finding a taker for the $50 million due to Sean Manaea in 2026 and 2027 combined.  However, money is not the primary motivator here.  Kodai Senga earns $15 million per season for this year, next year and an option for 2028.  That's not exactly crippling salary.  Still, sometimes fan wrath overrides common sense.

Now to the chips being offered up in this hypothetical transaction.  There are three players being proposed coming to the Cohen empire.  The first is a left handed starting pitcher JP Sears.  Now no one is against improving the rotation but is Sears really going to help in that regard?  For his career he owns a 4.53 career ERA over 4 season split between the Yankees, the Athletics and the Padres.  

His losing record is 31-41 and he's struck out less than 8 per 9 IP.   Turning 30 during the 2026 season it appears the best he can offer is good control but little else.  

Sometimes the wildcards of minor league prospects make all the difference.  Here the first one offered up is right handed reliever Bradgley Rodriguez.  In AAA for my former hometown El Paso Chihuahuas Rodriguez kind of hit the wall in the Pacific Coast League.  His ERA was not bad at 3.14 but his walks were off the charts and his strikeouts pretty much vanished.  

This step backwards came after an impressive start to the year in AA where he was more like a top line prospect.  Then he served 7 games in San Diego at the ripe old age of 21 and he was highly impressive in his brief trial.  So as prospects go, getting the Padres number 6 guy is pretty decent.

The other name mentioned is a first baseman by the name of Kale Fountain who was a bit of a hot prospect when selected by the Padres.  At 6'5" he's an imposing slugger in stature and in bat speed but he has the common problem among long ball hitters in making contact.  At just age 19 he's probably 2-3 years away from making it to the majors (if ever) and his initial foray into minor league ball was not encouraging.  He showed little power and hit just .226.  He is ranked as the 8th best prospect in the Padres organization.

So, to recap, for a pitcher with an American 3.00 career ERA the Mets would be getting a turning 30 year old southpaw with a career 4.53 ERA, a slugger with no clear answer to hitting for average and reducing his prodigious strikeout rate and the sole savior appears to be reliever Bradgley Rodriguez.  Is that return worth $15 million per year in payroll savings?  It sure seems unbalanced.  Yes, the Padres are gambling on good health so there is some risk on their side as well, but the return is, ahem, underwhelming.