Back in March when every team was 0-0 and the New York Mets were still figuring out its roster during spring training, MJ Melendez was one of the pleasant surprises during the team’s time in Port St. Lucie. Melendez was one of the final cuts, but it was clear the catcher-turned-outfielder made an impression and was poised to make an impact with the big league club sooner rather than later.
Prior to Melendez leaving the game early last night, the former Kansas City Royal was batting .333 with an OPS north of 1.000. In a time when the Mets have been looking every which way for offensive production, Melendez has been a breath of fresh air. Melendez has been bumped into the three-hole during his tenure with New York and was responsible for a game-tying three-run homer against the Washington Nationals despite the team ultimately falling short last Thursday.
Nobody should expect Melendez’s recent surge to continue at this same rate, but a few of the underlying numbers suggest that this might be slightly more than just a flash in the pan.
Melendez’s expected batting average leaves a lot to be desired at just a miniscule .186, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he has just been lucky. His average exit velocity is above 96 MPH. The Nationals James Wood currently leads baseball in average exit velocity among qualified players. If Melendez qualified, he would sit second to Wood and just be one tenth behind the fellow National League East outfielder.
Melendez hitting the daylights out of the ball is not a new phenomenon either. In 2023, he was in the 96th percentile in exit velocity at over 93 MPH and has never been below 90.5 MPH. The Mets outfielder would be fourth in all of baseball in hard hit rate at just under 61%.
Melendez swings hard with a bat speed of over 73 MPH, and we already laid out that when he does make contact, he hits the cover off of the ball. Where Melendez will need to improve is cutting the gap between his strikeout rate and his walk rate.
As it stands now, he is punching out almost 36% of the time while he is only drawing a free pass a tick over seven percent. To put it another way, he is striking out over five times as often as he is walking. That explains his lower expected statistics. Maybe this is just who Melendez has developed into, but the grand canyon used to not exist between these numbers.
In 2022, his walk rate was reaching double digits and and his strikeout percentage was cut down to about 24%. If he replicated those numbers (24% strikeout rate to a 10% walk rate), his early season production should be a lot more sustainable.
Looking at Melendez’s career trajectory, it followers a pattern that we have seen sweep the baseball landscape. As his strikeout numbers have climbed so has his launch angle. Someone got through to him to sacrifice his contact for lifting the ball on a more consistent basis. In 2024, Melendez only struck out a quarter of the time.
He also had a launch angle of under 15 degrees. Fast forward just one year later and his strikeout rate skyrocketed to over 35% while his launch angle jumped over 10 degrees. Although his launch angle has decreased (about 21 degrees as it stands currently), that number is still way higher than it had been from 2022-2024.
The tradeoff has worked for Melendez to start the 2026 season, and it might continue to pay off as the weather eventually starts to heat up. With that being said, it begs the question of will the tradeoff pay off for Melendez in the long run. It’s also not something that any player can change at the snap of the fingers, so this might truly be who he is from this point forward.
It’s easy to see why Melendez made these adjustments given he was already hitting the ball hard. Hitting the ball hard plus lifting the ball typically translates into success in the modern day’s eyes.
We have also seen Carlos Mendoza consistently pinch hit for Melendez whenever a lefty comes into the game for the opposing squad. Melendez has not fared greatly against lefties, but he has not faced southpaws more than 150 times in a given season (and not more than 75 since 2023). With the Royals,
Melendez actually hit close to .300 against left-handers in his rookie season four years ago. Given that he has barely played against lefties over the last few seasons, it is tough to expect great performances in those situations, but the only way he is going to improve would be exposure to those matchups.
I am old enough to remember when Kyle Schwarber would not play against southpaws. In a time when the Mets lineup is struggling to find any type of consistency at the dish, it is worth giving Melendez reps to see if he can improve over time, especially considering Austin Slater has not been lighting it up during his opportunities. This isn’t to say that Melendez should be batting third against Chris Sale, but having a lefty shouldn’t mean an automatic hook for one of the lone bright spots in New York’s batting order.
The Mets are not playing like an inspired group. It’s unfair to put this all on Mendoza or on any single person for that matter. In a time when the fans are searching for any reason to continue tuning in on a nightly basis, Melendez has given them one. Hitting lefties hasn’t always been kind, but the outfielder has earned the opportunity to prove people wrong. It’s unclear how long this will continue or if it is sustainable.
It’s unclear if sacrificing contact for launching the ball will be the right move for the rest of 2026, but Melendez has provided New York with a much-needed spark. He has carried over his spring training performance and has been one of the lone instances of a player performing better than what the back of the baseball card might suggest.
5 comments:
Who could not like his early .333 average in 39 ABs. Melendez > Robert.
Ride his train as long as g as it lasts.
He needs to cut his 3:1 K rate.
Play him during this disaster of a season. Let's see what the boy has
His defense has been good thus far.
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