Paul Articulates - Revisiting the Soto decision

On December 11, 2024 the New York Mets signed Juan Soto to an historic contract.  15 years, $765M were committed to one of the top players in baseball.  That is an enormous amount of money to spend on any player, and the decision to do so had to be based upon some very detailed analysis that the team was on the precipice of greatness with just one great player required to get there.

In the first few months of 2025, without even seeing the best of Juan Soto, the Mets looked like that team that was headed for greatness.  At one point they had the best record in baseball and were stringing series wins together one after another.

We all know where the story turned from there, and there have been countless stories published about the fact that the Mets are no longer anywhere close to greatness.  In fact, their lineup today looks more like a shopping trip to the Salvation Army than fifth avenue.

With that in mind, I pose the question, “Does this team need Juan Soto?”

One may argue that “every team” needs a Juan Soto, because when you have one of the best players in the sport, your team is inherently better.  But my question is more pragmatic than just being qualitatively better.  It is whether “better” achieves a realistic goal.  When the Mets acquired Soto, their seemingly realistic goal was to win a World Series Championship.  That is no longer a realistic goal.  I am not even sure that making the playoffs is a realistic goal because they have to play .614 ball for the entire rest of the season to be the sixth best team in the NL.  So if Soto makes the 8th best team good enough for 7th or 6th best in the NL, would you pay $765M for that level of improvement?

Let’s start by looking at the Soto contract that was signed in the off-season before 2025:

Value: $765M overall; 

Duration: 15 years

Options: Soto can opt out after 2029; Team can void the opt-out by adding $4M/year for the last nine years.

Trades: Full no trade clause

Incentives: $75M signing; MVP bonus, WS MVP bonus; Silver slugger bonus; All-star, Gold Glove, Hank Aaron bonuses.

Sunk investment: $75M signing bonus plus $124.15M in salary (2025, 2026)

Now let’s look at the return on investment:

Runs scored (2025+2026): 130

Runs Batted In (2025+2026): 114

Runs created plus (WRC+): 156 (2025); 151 (2026)

WAR: 6.4

Clearly Soto makes this team better, but just as clearly, Soto cannot generate enough WAR to tilt the current team from a mediocre team to a World Series contender.  His cost is not only the salary that he is paid by contract but also the luxury tax levied on the team for being above threshold and the inability to sign other highly compensated players.  The Mets are a middle-class household with a Bentley in the driveway.  

With that said, I know that this was not the intended result.  The Mets (and us) thought we would be a legitimate contender by this time, and in that case, having a Soto on your squad is a tremendous asset.  I am not blaming anyone for taking a big shot and signing Soto, but having him on the roster and then blowing up the core was a pretty big gamble that did not pay off.

So now, what to do?  Soto can’t opt out until 2029 and the Mets can’t trade him for pieces to rebuild without his consent to waive the clause.  There are plenty of incentives in the contract to give Soto the motivation to excel during these few years before the option, but it has to be demoralizing to play out seasons with no prize at the end.  My guess is that he might be willing to waive the no trade clause if there is a team willing to pay the price for him that has a legitimate chance to contend for championships over the next few years.

What would you do?