What a relief it is to see the Mets on an actual winning streak. They swept the Marlins, gaining some level of revenge for being swept in Miami. They avoided a sweep by the Reds by winning the final game of the series. That’s four in a row to close out a homestand that has Queens breathing a sigh of relief.
From here, it is back out to the west coast for series against the Mariners (31-29 AL West) and the Padres (32-26 NL West). It has been very difficult for the team to keep changing time zones, having been alternating between west and east three times already. With two good teams facing them and little rest to be had, this could be a difficult challenge that derails the winning momentum that has recently been gained.
But losing a series or two may not be the worst thing that could happen to this team. I think (and many of you will disagree) that the worst thing that could happen to this team is a winning streak. Why? Well by this point in the season with the Mets 7 games underwater and a team OPS of .654, it is a logical next step to start re-working the team for success in the future, not compromising strategy to eke out more wins and keep the fans happy. That process would right the ship and eliminate some of the recent very costly mistakes like Polanco, Bichette, and Peralta. It would also force a final reckoning for those players that have had too many chances like Baty, Vientos, and Alvarez.
What could go wrong is a winning streak that pulls the team back up to .500 and suddenly renews hope that this is not a lost season. Instead of correcting the huge miscalculations in the rebuild of 2026, it would drive some desperate deadline behavior that could cost more prospects and more money for short-term rentals that might get the team to challenge for the last wild card spot. Then we would lose not only the first playoff series but would also lose the rentals and the prospects we paid for them and be back to square one for spring training 2027.
The best thing that could happen, though very painful for the fans, would be for the team to play mediocre baseball for the months of June and July, head into the trade deadline 8-10 games below .500, and do the right things for the future. Let the kids play and prove themselves, get what you can get for the baby Mets that never grew up to be man Mets, and trade away the mid-30’s players that were acquired in the winter for whatever prospect collateral we can obtain.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the collapse of the development system from the low minors to MLB will cause a great deal of introspection, hopefully concluding with lessons learned and actionable results that will salvage the talent we still have in the system.
Yes, this is another year lost in the quest for the World Championship. Yes, this will mean less fans in seats in 2026 and less merchandising. Yes, this will mean a financial loss for the ownership this year. But if it becomes the means for a real, no-compromises strategic recalibration, it will be the beginning of a long, bright future.
This is a perfect window for Benge and Ewing. I think Benge was going to be sent down at the end of spring training, but Tauchman went down with a long injury. He struggled mightily, and now he has come thru it handsomely.
ReplyDeleteEwing is struggling against vastly better pitching than he has ever faced. But that time period of struggle will also come to an end very soon. The Robert injury (of 2026) was a blessing in disguise, allowing Ewing to be called up. He is too good to not adjust.
We are also getting to see what Vientos and Baty are really made of. They now appears that Alvarez will be back in a week or thereabouts. And perhaps with Lindor, in three weeks. I’m just guessing on the last one. The big F is always injuries, but the offense has that chance to be strong within about three weeks.
Polanco? The Mets are stuck with him. No one wants a highly paid, structurally injured individual. All the Mexican hope is that he comes back and can hit in a part-time role.
Lastly, the pitching is evolving into something that I think we will be happy with.
But I have increased optimism here required a winning streak. They now have one. Are they going to fall back on their face or will they keep plowing forward? Soto is on fire so that will help the boat stay afloat.
The next week is going to be very interesting indeed.
ReplyDeleteToo depressing to consider: hope for this year or failure this year & future potential, theoretical hope for some to be determined future date…
ReplyDeleteFeels like a regular choice set for the Mets & their fans.
The big worry is Stearns again at the trade deadline
ReplyDeletePaul,
ReplyDeleteThe Mets must avoid making a panic trade such as the one made in July, 2004 when they traded first round pick, Scott Kazmir to the Rays for Victor Zambrano. The team needs to rebuild and be competitive in 2026-2027. Do not make desperation trades.
I hope they are listening to you DJ, you are right on!
DeleteThis month will tell a lot about the season. And a good stretch will be a good thing.
ReplyDeleteThere are obvious conflicting emotions. On the one hand, you are what your record says you are. On the other hand, you want the Mets to play well because it's no fun to watch your team lose. But then you don't want a good record over the next couple of months to lead any decision maker to make the mistake of believing that the team is any good as currently constructed.
ReplyDeleteAt some point you just have to pick a path forward. And as a fan, I don't have the visibility into the collapse of the developmental strategy thisyear, which makes it harder to pick the right path.
So here's the best I can do. I think teams tend to overestimate the quality of their top tier players far more frequently than they underestimate it. False positives on average have a more deleterious impact in these circumstances than do false negatives. On average.
So I apply a formula that jokingly looks like this: I am about 95% confident that 65% of the players in the Mets farm system who are touted as average or better potential major leaguers will prove to be. Of course, I don't know who they are. Wish I did. But I apply a confidence standard over groups, not individuals, about whom I would likely be doing no better than guessing.
So I think in terms of groups: pitchers/ outfielders/infielders, catchers, etc. And this informs my view about what we should do at the trade deadline and in the offseason.
As to the pitchers in the majors and in high minors I don't know who exactly will make the grade long term, but I am pretty confident enough will to leave us short of a true ace, and in need of a decent number of relievers on short contracts we should always be shopping for but a bit higher up the food chain than is our history.
I feel the roughly the same way about the outfield. I'd like to have a fourth outfielder and I don't know who beyond Morabito currently in the minors that would be.
The infield is where my confidence level of truly major league talent existing approaches no more than 20% over a time frame of three years.
So I conclude that investing in making this team better for the rest of this year through trades or through declining to trade some of our players currently in the majors on the pitching staff or in the infield would be a mistake. In the infield declining to make a trade is a problem because there just isn't someone available in the high minors or on the major league squad who will change the quality of the team or be integral to it next year. This means I am prepared to cut loose Baty, Vientos and Mauricio in trades and my bar for what I get back is pretty low. It's all because I am going to have to do much much more at the infield level than I will be able to do at the trade deadline. I've gotten nothing in the bank for the next couple of years. Period. Don't pretend otherwise. If you get lucky great. My only uncertainty is Bichette. He is better than he has played this year, but I don't like him long term, but you won't be offered enough to make it worthwhile, and he is not going to opt out. You trade him for what you can get only if you can trade the contract without having to pay for any of it or very little of it.
Pitching means trading for the opposite reason. Namely, you have lots in the bank just a stone's throw away. The problem with pitching is that you don't know what you have in terms of players farther away in the lower minors. So you can buy time to find out. The infield and pitching situations say TRADE at or before the deadline, but for opposite reasons.
Save the big moves for the offseason. Don't do anything half assed, trying to hedge your bets. You don't have to hedge. You have to straighten out long term finances and make a couple of materially significant trades and free agent signings.
No foolish investments in the present at the expense of the future and no hedging. Commit to excellence everywhere. Don't spend time figuring out how to be compettive. Spend that time figuring out how to handle the salaries in creative ways.
Trade the pitchers you can
The most depressing: How poorly the minor league teams are doing!
ReplyDelete2027 season is likely lost due to the lockout
ReplyDeleteHey, Norm, do you really think players will forfeit an entire season’s pay? I don’t. But, I think the strike will be lengthy. Regardless, I feel really bad for the lower paid players. 2027 might be the only window for some of those players to play major league ball and make the major league minimum. After working their entire lives toward that goal.
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