For a few minutes pretend you are Steve Cohen and need to determine what to do between now and the end of the season with the team? Obviously it is mathematically possible for the Mets to rally their way into a playoff position, but the odds are not very appealing.
Many are advocating a wholesale housecleaning of the roster in order to prepare better for the future but there is a problem therein. Throwing in the towel during the first week of July signals the team is giving up and despite the reality of playing multiple AAAA type players regularly is truly not a formula for success. Prolonging the mediocrity until the first couple of days of August when the trade deadline draws near allows the club to maintain the illusion that they are still giving it their all to advance out of the basement.
So aside from necessary (and long overdue) roster reconstruction, what else needs to be done?
Starting Pitching
Right now the Mets are relying on Nolan McLean, newly healed Christian Scott, uneven Sean Manaea, totally lost Kodai Senga, rusty ace Freddy Peralta and hope for an imminent recovery of the leg fracture suffered by Clay Holmes. Going into 2027 the club still has the prospect of five of these six pitchers with Peralta headed into free agency. There are no clear candidates for immediate promotion in AAA who are showing star potential and no one is especially excited to get Tylor Megill back next season.
First Base
This black hole has only gotten worse since the year began. Jorge Polanco’s dual injuries took him off the field during April and he has just started rehab in Syracuse though his role going forward is slated to be DH rather than first baseman. Jared Young has come back to earth after having had a hot start but at the moment it’s he or Mark Vientos, neither of whom are likely helping the team climb out of the cellar. Ryan Clifford continues to whiff at a stunning rate and newcomer Cole Mathis needs to get healthy before the Mets try to push him up to the AA level. He has moderate power and a .272 lifetime minor league batting average which isn’t bad for a two-way player who everyone assumes is now strictly a hitter. They need to look at 2027 and beyond at this position.
Second Base
Marcus Semien definitely shows the defensive skills and communication ability to show he is a solid major leaguer, but his hitting skills seemed to deteriorate first last year and even further this year. The Mets are obligated to pay him for awhile so it’s unclear what is role will be in the future. Brett Baty could be a second baseman as could Ronny Mauricio, but neither have shown enough at the major league level to fill you with confidence.
Third Base
Will Bo Bichette opt out or won’t he? Given his mid season rise in his productivity it is indeed possible to envision him hitting north of .275 by year’s end, but it’s also highly unlikely he could find any team willing to cough up north of $40 million per year for a long term deal. He may decide that, for example, a five year $35 million deal is better for his bank account than another year or two at a higher rate with the Mets. If he does find a taker then the Mets have yet another hole to fill.
Manager
There are a few ways to go here. You could bring in a known winner as was done in the past with Buck Showalter or you could name a known former player who was a superstar such as Carlos Beltran or Albert Pujols. You could find a coach or minor league manager elsewhere who needs to prove what he can do when handed the lineup pencil, but the Carlos Mendoza experiment likely puts that approach far back on the stovetop.
The superstar approach hasn’t yet been tried in recent days, so it’s entirely possible the Mets will go in this direction, though it is often difficult for guys with natural talent to understand how to motivate players who are not of the same caliber. Furthermore, an untested manager being asked to salvage two straight awful seasons is a heady gamble. From a business standpoint finding the next minor league manager or major league coach would be far less expensive yet not generate the feel-good stories that a Beltran reunion would.
Front Office
Let’s stop tap dancing around what everyone is already thinking. David Stearns has done a horrific job enhancing the major league team since arriving. Is there too much on his plate? Is his coaching staff unknowledgeable or overly optimistic? Does he need a GM to take over the day to day roster considerations while he concentrates on the organizational level picture? Or does he too need to be replaced?
11 comments:
I will go on record as saying that I am not ready to throw in the towel. The Mets have Polanco coming back to play second base. Semien is gone and I’m glad.
The Mets have Roberts coming back to join Soto, Benge and Ewing as a very productive outfield.
The Mets have a very strong bullpen and just really need to figure out their starting staff. Can you imagine how great it can be if Peralta can come around? That isn’t ridiculous… Peralta, McLean, Scott, Manaea… that’s the first four right now. Holmes is about a month away. Senga could support if they let him throw more high fastballs.
The Mets finally moved on from a great man but a bad manager in Carlos Mendoza. It’s time to start treating these players like grown men and not like their diaper needs changing.
The Mets lineup in a week:
Benge, Soto, Bichette, Lindor, Polanco, Roberts, Young/Mauricio, Ewing, Alvarez… this is a good quality lineup without idiots like Vientos and Semien challenging strikes early in the game and not even knowing their strike zone, much less how to read spin. Baty would be first off the bench to get the guy playing time but he hasn’t earned more than that. Vientos can rot, for all I care. He has earned it.
By the way, Cleveland last year was 15 1/2 out of first in late July. The Mets can do this and they have the parts to do it, if managed correctly.
Tex is trippin'
Steve Cohen has to do three things this season. 1. Fire Stearns 2. Replace him 3. Hire Cora
BTW
Nolan McClain threw a curve with a 3399 rpm spin last night
He is going to be oh so fine when he figures things out
LOLL
You gotta believe Mack!
There are players that will represent addition by subtraction when Robert and Polanco return. Lop off some dead wood. I wish AJ Ewing could play second base, but in 53 games in the minors at second base, he made 13 errors. That doesn’t mean he can’t play the position. That just means he needs more work at it. So a switch to second base for him right now is not happening. I do think that right now Nick Morabito can be addition by subtraction, after a terrific June, but he most likely won’t get called up if Robert is going to imminently return. Nick may have to wait till August.
Polanco is 0 for his last 15 in his minor league off and on rehab.
Robert’s track record says he’ll come back for
a week or so then come down with some unheard of injury which puts him out until around Thanksgiving. With Ewing in CF Roberts shouldn’t even be a consideration
I hold no hope for Robert or Polanco. Neither contributed when they were healthy except for a solid first week by Luis. I would hope that Bichette opts out, but it is unlikely. He proved again during this Toronto series that he does not perform when the pressure is on. The Mets cannot count on him to deliver in big situations.
I don't think the Mets can compete for a playoff spot this year. I also don't think should be holding an 'estate sale'. I do think that they be focused on an honest assessment of what they have at the ML level and in the high minors, the distribution of position players, inf/outfield catcher, pitchers, etc. Then after an assessment, they have to figure out, who must stay and who has to go. They don't have complete control of this, e.g. Bichette/Holmes. Then of those who have to go, they distinguish between who is tradable for something and at what cost and who is not.. They have to DFA the latter at an appropriate time. This will actually leave many who do not fall into either category. Then they have to decide what to do in the light of reasonable goals for the immediate future and longer term, and also figure out what the actual formula is for sustained long term success. There is more than one, and they have to adopt a particular kind of path they are committed to among them. This will help them think about how to deal with their current roster and make projections about players in the minors -- which to include in trades and which not, and all relative to returns. They need to have a 'big board' of needs and who they want to go after in FA. The process cannot be simply to be opportunistic. Opportunism is a feature of rationality; it is not a plan. The plan has to come first; any plan allows for opportunism.
I too would welcome Bichette opting out, his being replaced with a solid major leaguer for a comparable period of time (@3-4years, while we develop talent at the minor league level. There is no one in the high majors ready to fill that position, now. I'd like to shift some of the Bichette money to acquiring pitching in FA.
Guys
They are two less losses then frigging Colorado
Kim Ng but to do it Stearns has to go. She will want to run the show.
Post a Comment