The Dark Knight, Matt Harvey, ate up pitchers who hit against him
There is one thing to remember when you’re criticizing Mets pitchers in 2026:
They are pitching to a DH. In every single game.
And that was a real factor as to why some guys, like a Jake deGrom, did as well as they did, pre-DH.
When Jake won his two Cy Young’s, he got to face pitchers at least a few times a game typically. And those pitchers hitting against Jake were about as automatic an out as you can possibly imagine.
Why imagine it? I looked it up.
In Jake deGrom‘s two Cy Young years, pitchers facing him in the batter’s box had just seven hits in 96 at bats, with one walk and 68 strikeouts.
Chewed up. Spit out.
Regular hitters in those 2 Cy Young years, meanwhile, hit .210 against him.
Matt Harvey in his dominant 2013 season?
Pitchers went 4 for 46, no walks, 24 Ks.
So, it is very clear that pitching against pitchers helped Jake and Matt, and others, further suppress opposing teams’ offense.
If, say, a David Peterson in 2026 got to pitch against pitchers like Jake did back in 2018 in 2019, maybe Peterson would’ve done much better this year as a Met.
Something to chew on.
Cut your pitchers some slack. Not much, but some.
Not to second-guess our friend Ray Savage, but in February, he estimated this level of team offense:
PROJECTED 2026 | |||
Name | BA | HRS | RBI |
Lindor | 0.262 | 24 | 82 |
Soto | 0.280 | 40 | 106 |
Bichette | 0.310 | 26 | 110 |
Polanco | 0.265 | 26 | 84 |
Alvarez | 0.260 | 32 | 80 |
Robert | 0.240 | 22 | 76 |
Baty | 0.275 | 28 | 75 |
Vientos / Benge | 0.250 | 28 | 95 |
Semien | 0.238 | 16 | 52 |
Others | 0.220 | 6 | 35 |
248 | 795 | ||
Gaudy.
I replied at the time, “I think some of the starters, other than Soto and Lindor and Bo, will be getting time off, so I think your “others” category is low and some of those listed are too high. It would be great if they scored 800 runs as a team though. That would definitely have us in the running for the playoffs.” So, I still thought high offense was possible, but more spread out, due to my anticipating there would be increased hitter IL time.
We both were clearly drinking from the same psychedelic brew at that time.
Next year, whatever level of Mets runs I estimate for the season myself, I will knock it down 100 runs, called “the Queens Reality Factor.”
After all, Steve Cohen most likely won’t do the sensible thing and move the fences in. So, they will flounder at the dish again.
Heck, next year, forget the 100 run haircut… I will simply see how many runs the bottom 3 teams scored in 2026, and use the average of those three teams as my 2027 estimate.
After all, who’s kidding who? Won’t get fooled again.
JD MARTINEZ SAYS IT SIMPLY…
JD Martinez:
"You talk about the toughest job, manager of the New York Mets is the toughest job in baseball right now.”
We have the second toughest job…rooting for these chronic under performers.
Me? I just resigned. I’m gonna kick back with Martinez and chill.
Baty hit one HR in April where he hit a HR. In mid-May, he hit 2 in a stretch of 6 games.
ReplyDeleteWe thought something was stirring.
Then…no homers in the last 7 weeks.
We thought wrong.
I’m 66 and have been a Mets fan for 57 years. I'm on a text chain with friends from elementary and high school and they have been Met fans for as long.
ReplyDeleteOn March 23rd with excitement brewing for the upcoming season I sent the gang the following text. I think with a few exceptions it's aged well:
“McLean is untested, Senga is made of glass, Peterson and Holmes can’t go deep and Manure couldn’t break a pane of glass and has bone chips in his arm .
In the bullpen we lost Diaz.
Weaver and Williams are coming off terrible years. We have no real reliable lefty until Minter comes back. ( we do have the best name in sports- Dicky Lovelady)
In the outfield Robert has been a .210 hitter and oft injured and Benge batted .156 last year in AAA. Soto can’t catch.
In the infield Polanco and Bichette are playing out of position and Lindor just had surgery on a broken hamate.
Alvarez breaks bones in his hand twice a year. Semien is a .220 hitter and is 35.
Who is the real Baty? The first half who was so bad he was sent to the minors or the second half?
Vientos is unique in that he can’t hit or field. He might as well wear the Mr.. Met costume and be the team mascot.
The season will be a fiasco.”
You nailed it, except got Weaver (great) and Williams (solid, except for a few games). Great job. And Vientos only runs fast to the bathroom.
DeleteWhen I went to the Ducks game on Thursday, one opposing player, a first baseman was hitting over .300 in around 200 at bats, but just 3 HRs….but he did have 23 doubles. Baty has 11 doubles, a misplayed triple, and 3 HRs in 294 PAs. That says, “failed experiment” to me.
ReplyDeleteWe all wanted to drink the Kool Aid. Joe DeMayo in early 2021 wrote of Baty:
“ I am a big fan of Baty’s game, and his skill set to me is a bit reminiscent of Kyle Seager from the Mariners. If he is able to mature as expected, I think Baty could be a 25-30 home run bat at the big league level. ”
He has NOT matured as expected.
I drank Kool Aid, too. In December 2019, based on hype after he was drafted in June2019, even after he hit just .234 in his 2019 rookie ball debut (rookie ball then was the equivalent of the FCL Mets now, perhaps weaker.
I wrote:
BRETT BATY: Now there’s a bat that should really excite everyone soon. P.O.W.E.R is his middle name.
He started off, after being drafted in the first round by the Mets, with the rep of a huge power bat but not much speed. Sounds like Pete. Baty briefly hit like a house on fire in the Gulf Goast league, got promoted to Kingsport, struggled mightily for the first three or four games there, then righted the ship.
I think he has to be concerned about strikeouts a bit, and that may slow him down in terms of rushing up the system, but he’s quite young and there is mucho time, so I like to see him hitting 30 to 40 homers a season for the next two seasons in the minors, and perhaps being ready by the start or mid season of 2022. After all, we need to see who can hit the ball farther, Brett Baty or Pete Alonso.
I was too willing to overlook .234 not being .334.
The good news is Manaea threw 108 pitches and is fully stretched out.
ReplyDeleteRe: Mets 2027 rotation - IMO
ReplyDeleteWenninger and Thornton will graduate and join McLean and Scott as 80% of the opening day rotation
McLean will be an all-star
The Mets will have to reach outside the organization for their 5th starter
Their 6th and first fill-in will come from who they couldn't discard properly before the season started
I still think Tong is in the 2027 rotation. Let him learn whatever they want him to learn this year and then say, now throw your best stuff and win games.
DeleteI reserve the right to be wrong.
If I was a free agent, the only thing that would entice me to come to the Mets is being overpaid. Therefore, go with the kids in 2027. It may be painful, but we’ll see who succeed and he fails, and then at the end of 2027, go out and sign quality free agents who may be more inclined to come in.
@aptoklas -- Pretty much 'Nailed It." except for Williams and Weaver. Remember the TV baking show 'Nailed It". Amateurs competing in baking contests, all of their creations invariably being laughably horrendous; all of them being optimistic about their capacities before the competition started, apologetic, afterwards. Some offered excuses. Watching the Mets is as close to watching 'Nailed It." as I have been able to find since it went off the air.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is, the Mets have provided everything but the laughs.
The Mets are baked.
DeleteOk, so I was a little bit off in my projections. However. Soto and Benge/Vientos may be close. I was once an optometrist.
ReplyDeleteRay, we need to swear off the Kool Aid to see 20/20. I promise to in the future.
DeleteThis year the Mets' lineup looks like 9 pitchers through the first six innings. They are dominated by just about any starting pitchers.
ReplyDeletedeGrom would bat 6th in this line up.
ReplyDeleteMaybe higher. The interesting through line of the Mets offense has been that the order remains completely unbalanced. If they don't score the majority of their runs from the top of their line-up, they are screwed. They are a black hole from 6-9 and often from 5-9. That is simply untenable offensively. And it only gets worse when you look at what they have gotten from 1-5 this year. But there has been consistency in that they have gotten nothing from 6-9.
Delete