Good morning.
For 15 years I have posted my prediction for both the NL East and what key Mets players will do in the upcoming season. I know I am retired now, but I decided to drag my arse back to the laptop and do it one more time.
Let's first look at the projected lineups, starters, and overall thoughts on each of these teams.
Philadelphia Phillies -
Top every day players... 1B Rhys Hopkins, 2B/3B Jean Segura, SS Didi Gregorius, 3B/1B Alec Bohm, C J.T. Realmuto, OFs Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper, Roman Quinn
Projected rotation... Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Zach Effin, Vincent Velasquez, Spencer Howard, Ivan Nova
Overall view... First of all, they resigned their all-star catcher JT Realmuto to a five year renewed contract. This is big news. Then they signed Didi Gregorius to a two year contract. They made other, smaller moves but these were the two that stood out. The problem here is there wasn't a 'three stood out' or 'four stood out'.
Yes, these two moves and some sneaky others made the Phillies a better team in 2021, but not by that much... and definitely not enough to keep pace with the Braves or surging Mets.
Lastly, this is a really bad defensive team that did nothing to improve themselves in this area.
Atlanta Braves -
Top everyday players... 1B Freddie Freeman, 2B Ozzie Albies, SS Dansby Swanson, 3B Austin Riley, C Travis d'Arnaud, OFs Ronald Acuna, Marcel Azuna, Christian Pache.
Projected rotation... Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson, Drew Smyly, Kyle Wright
Overall view...
Marcell Ozuna as an everyday left fielder may bring back visions of Lucas Duda out there. Other than that, their lineup is loaded. Their rotation may wind up the best in the division. Lastly, they addressed the very bad bullpen and look like they have turned it into one of the best.
Miami Marlins -
Top everyday players... 1B Jesus Aguilar, 2B Jonathan Berti, SS Miguel Rojas, 3B Brian Anderson, C Jorge Alfaro, OFs Cory Dickerson, Sterling Marte, Adam Duvall
Projected rotation... Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Sixto Sanchez, Trevor Rogers
Overall view... Young, young, young. The entire rotation are 25 or younger. Lots of projected talent but very few MLB innings yet. The Marlins caught everybody off guard last abbreviated season. That won't happen again. As for offense, the runs just aren't here. Like the Nats, this is a pitching first team but in this case, the pitching is also a question mark due to its lack of experience.
Washington Nationals -
Top everyday players... 1B Josh Bell, 2B Starlin Castro, SS Trea Turner, 3B Carter Kieboom, C Yan Gomes, OFs Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, Victor Robles
Projected rotation... Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg, Jon Lester, Erick Feede, Joe Ross
Overall view... the success of this team is going to be based on how well their top end starters do. The overall lineup doesn't stand up to the division talent so this is a pitching first team in 2021. There simply wasn't enough done here in the off-season.
New York Mets -
Top everyday players... 1B Pete Alonso, 2B Jeff McNeil, SS Francisco Lindor, 3B J D Davis, C James McCann, OFs Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto
Projected rotation... Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Joey Lucchese, Noah Syndergaard
Overall view... no one has improved more in this division than the Mets, led by their superstar addition of Lindor. The lineup is as solid as it has been in 20 years. The questions remain in both the rotation and pen. The recent news of Seth Lugo, their most reliable reliever, going under the knife doesn't help here either. Still, the Mets will produce enough runs to win games. Now we have to see what the starters can do.
Mets MVP - Until dethroned, it remains Jacob deGrom.
Mets Rookie Of The Year - no one
Most Improved Player - 1B Pete Alonso
Most Disappointing Player - SP Noah Syndergaard
Overall Mets projection -
Long term readers know I have been both harsh and accurate about where the Mets will finish. The Mets have enough talent to win their division. The problem is the Braves have more.
I would love to tell you that they will win the division, but I think their dismal W-L record with the Braves will continue to cost them.
Wins: 88
Wild Card
Many think all five teams are going to contend in 2021 but I see this as a two horse race between the Mets and Braves.
Mack - Washington with Soto and Turner on offense and Viktor Robles manning CF - best defensive CF in baseball IMO - coupled with the starting pitching will be a threat as well.
ReplyDeleteOverall feel the Braves are the class of the division.
The Mets have turned over almost 50% of their 40 man roster. Sometimes teams that do that take a while to jell.
The Marlins could surprise as well.
My pick as of today - Braves; Nats; Mets; Marlins; Phillies.
I gotta go Mets, Braves, Nats, Phils, Marlins
ReplyDeleteMets are not done finishing the roster, and will probably be the most aggressive of the 5 teams in mid-season moves.
I do think Syndergaard will be back full bore by June 1, and hopefully Lugo before then.
The big difference will be the top 15 on the team are collectively better than prior years, and the back 10 (11) spots will be far better than in 2018-20. I see 95 wins - EASY - despite the competition.
Lindor will be great, McNeil will win a batting title, Pete will be Pete again, and McCann will be much better than the Mets' catching malaise of 2020.
But I've been known to overestimate the Mets' chances.
Tom - Defense and the bullpen will be the Mets problems again this year. 8-man bullpen? Really? The Mets and Baseball need to get back to building pitchers that can go deep into games. It is crazy that so much of the gane depends on the bottom portion of your pitching staff.
ReplyDeleteGood post, Mack.
ReplyDeleteStill too soon for me, but I tend to agree with your overall evaluations here.
We've all been waiting for Noah to be good. Maybe this is the year, but that's a big expectation for a guy coming off TJ surgery.
The other potential disappointment could be Marcus Stroman. He flopped when Brodie picked him up in 2019 in preparation for Wheeler's departure. Didn't pitch at all in 2020. Talks a great game on Twitter. I think he's consistent and "good." The Mets need more than that from him in 2021.
Jimmy
One more thing and I'll stop:
ReplyDeleteSandy is really going to miss the days when he was GM the first time around. Back then, the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins were all just punting entire seasons, not really competing. The Division was there for the taking and, well, Sandy was punting, too.
But now? Wow, that NL East is rough. The Marlins young staff is tough. The Nats, the Braves? Damn.
These teams are going to beat the hell out of each other. 72 games against those 4 teams. Won't be easy to win 90.
Jimmy
Thank you Jimmy
ReplyDeleteThor is the most disappointing when he’s coming off injury? A bit brutal? My pick is Mcann to be the most disappointing.
ReplyDeleteI’m seeing the Braves and Nats without much depth, which we have criticized the Mets for but their rivals get a pass? Also, Ozuna used to be a center fielder, he isn’t that bad in LF.
My prediction: NYM, WAS, ATL, PHI, MIA.
Texas
ReplyDeleteRe: Thor
Just a feeling.
Good post, and I tend to agree with Mack's conclusions, but I also agree with Jimmy - it is too early for me to do this. I generally do an in-depth look at the teams in the division similar to this as my first project after my taxes are done. And after spring training games start.
ReplyDeleteGreat point by Jimmy about the overall strength in the division. Well said that they will be beating the hell out of each other and that 90 games will be difficult in this division.
I hope your feeling good Mack and I just wanted to tell you that you have a fantastic writing staff on this site and they all deserve big raises. (insert laugh track here).
ReplyDeleteThank you Gary.
DeleteI just kicked up their 401K in Bitcoin.
Mack, I just see these videos of Syndergaard throwing BBs already, and he seems super-focused on getting back sooner than expected - and he wants a huge payday, so he is hugely incentivized to be THE RETURN OF THOR. I have not heard a peep about any issues, like we did when Matz and Wheeler had theirs.
ReplyDeleteAnd backed by the killer offense and helped by a catcher who can decently throw out runners, I think the wind will be strongly at his back.
You know, the Division was tough in 1986 too with those darned Cardinals, but the Mets won 108. I want 95 wins and zero excuses.
Stroman, I was ticked off about, but I am willing to let bygones be bygones and hopefully, we will have a normal spring training and season without interruption and Stroman will put up a career year on his way to a big pay day.
LOL great to hear from you Mack
ReplyDeleteAgain, great post, Mack. I'll take our Mack-ota over Pecota any day. Even though you are "retired" you should come back each year with your prognostications. And while you're at it, share some of your wisdom on other subjects occasionally as well.
ReplyDeleteI believe that only the division winner will make it to the post season this year. The level of competition among NL East teams will make it difficult to get enough wins to make the playoffs as a wild card. So I am hoping the Mets edge out the Braves. They have a decent shot.
Additionally, I have a sneaky feeling that the Nats may flame out this year. I don't think Bell will live up to expectations, Kieboom is a big question mark, and I don't think their rotation is that hot.
For you short timers, Herb was the first to handle our nightly minors recap which almost cost him the use of half his brain and a divorce.
DeleteGreat to see both you and I are still around.
+1 for all of Herb's comment.
ReplyDeleteRemember...
DeleteI simply LOVE your guest posts
PLEASE consider joining the team inside the site by becoming a writer here.
Send your email addres to me at macksmets@gmail.com and I can begin the process.
Herb, here, here. Things do go better with Mack.
ReplyDeleteAlso, as far as the Nats are concerned, Strasburg is injury-prone, and Scherzer turns 37 in July. Something will not pan out as planned there.