Reese Kaplan -- Climbing the Pitching Rotation Ladder Looks Scary Right Now

 

As Spring Training approaches, the fans are getting a little antsy about the lack of activity by the Mets to make substantive moves to improve the roster.  Don’t get me wrong.  No one is disputing the excellent trade to improve the infield defense and offense by landing Francisco Lindor from the Indians. 

Few were as high on the pitcher Carlos Carrasco, but all it takes is a brief perusal of the stats for him vs. say Trevor Bauer to see who has a bigger history of quality.  He earns less than half (and perhaps as little as 1/3) of what Bauer will take home from whomever favors 60-game performance over a long term track record.  He pitches to a better ERA, better WHIP and better control.  Yet, folks are less than thrilled to have him on board for two full seasons at $12 million and an option for a third at $14 million (or a $3 million buyout).  Put succinctly, three full seasons of Carrasco will cost $37 million.  Two full seasons would cost $27 million if the buyout option is exercised.  That cost is a huge delta over what Bauer would require in a paycheck even if he could somehow come close to his one other decent season to go along with 7 of mediocrity. 

Right now the Mets are still somewhat unsteady when it comes to the starting rotation after the top three of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman.  As I opined earlier this week, no one is getting their Joey Lucchesi or David Peterson jerseys as of yet.  There is a definite need for a starter number four and then you can live with one of these wildcards until and if Noah Syndergaard comes back ready to pitch. 

If we all remember the Cincinnati era of the Big Red Machine, it’s possible but probably not wise to gamble that your offense will overcome pitchers who hurl in the 4.50 or higher ERA range.  If you’re facing a quality starter like Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer then it doesn’t matter how many runs you normally score because good pitching beats good hitting. 

Sandy Alderson (for lack of anyone else in the front office) is getting applause for filling out the upper level of the minor leagues with reasonable pitching options that will help the Syracuse team perform at a higher level, but no one is holding their breath waiting for the big league success from the three recent imports for Steven Matz, nor for Franklyn Kilome nor for Tony Dibrell to cause fear and panic in MLB batters.  If not for the pandemic, I would float the old cliché about putting fans in the seats.  They are filler but not true long term prospects.

I could see Thomas Szapucki eventually being capable of earning a major league payday, but injuries have cost him a lot of his minor league development time and it appears as if he’s in the witness protection program.  The 24 year old lefty last pitched in 2019 and offered up a combined 2.63 ERA across three leagues and 18 starts.  For his four-year minor league career he owns a 2.42 ERA with fairly decent control, so if healthy he could be a piece for at least the AA or AAA rotation this season.  He’s not yet likely ready to make the jump to the majors, but then no one expected that AA-to-the-majors move for David Peterson last year either.               

The Mets really do need to look at free agency and the trade route to land pitchers capable of being 4^th or 5^th starters with good health and a solid track record.  No one is looking for Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman to make a permanent transition from the pen to the starting rotation.  It requires outside talent to supplement who’s already here and who is taking up space in the minors.